Why You Need To Rebalance Heading Into A Recession (2024)

“Set it and forget it” may work well when our economy is humming along and stocks are going up. But during times of volatility, it’s time for us to take the wheel. Today, the stock market is down double digits, inflation is soaring and the Federal Reserve has plans to continue raising interest rates to fight the rising cost of living. All of this means that investments that were doing well are now in the crosshairs. Many women who have checked their portfolios lately have found they’re suddenly too exposed in one area of the market, or perhaps don’t have enough exposure in another.

Financial experts tell us that at age 40, we should have about 70% of our assets in stocks. At age 50, that figure should drop to around half. Yet a recent HerMoney and Alliance for Lifetime Income survey showed that one in four women have 20% more allocated to stocks than is recommended. (And 37% of Millennials, 30% of Gen Xers and 21% of Baby Boomers don’t know how their portfolio is allocated!) That means a lot of us are driving blind when it comes to our investments. And this becomes even more problematic for women who are close to retirement.

That’s where rebalancing comes in. It’s important to take time and realign your investments with your original plan, whether you still have decades to invest or are nearing retirement. It’s particularly important in Bear markets and the prospect of a recession looming. Now is the time to check in on your portfolio, and perhaps check in with a financial advisor as well. Here are some ideas to get your started.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — TIME TO CHECK IN!

No, thankfully you don’t have to rebalance your portfolio every time the stock market tanks or the Fed raises interest rates, but you should make sure your plans are on course at least once a year. Do it on or around your birthday and you’re less likely to forget or over-manage, says retirement expert Anne Lester, an Education Fellow with the Alliance for Lifetime Income. Both can be a recipe for disaster, especially in volatile times. “If you pay too much attention you get sucked into a trading mentality,” explains Lester. “If you do it every year on your birthday you tend to not over-manage or spend too much time and energy.”

SHARE THE LOVE — AND THE RISK

Think about re-balancing a diversified portfolio like getting your car periodically checked and tuned-up. You don’t want to risk a tire blowing out or engine stalling because you didn’t change your oil on schedule. Similarly, portfolio re-balancing is about checking whether your financial plan is well-tuned and adjusted for the risks to your long-term goals. Investment growth is great, but your portfolio should also be protected to make your money last.

The idea behind a well-diversified and protected investment portfolio is to spread the risk among stocks, bonds, cash, alternative investments and sources of future guaranteed income, like Social Security and annuities. If one area is lagging, then the others can pick up the slack. How much is invested in each bucket depends on your age, time horizon and risk tolerance. The latter is uniquely individual. You want to sleep at night, and what gets you there is different for everyone. The typical rule of thumb is the longer your time horizon, the riskier your investments can be. That may change as you age, or as your life circ*mstances change.

When rebalancing, it’s important to see where you’re at on the risk scale. Has inflation or rising mortgage rates impacted your risk tolerance? Are your investments too risky, or are you playing it too safe, are things you need to ask yourself. If you answer “yes” to either, rebalancing to your new risk tolerance is probably in order. “Ask yourself what is the right level of risk for your time horizon,” says Lester. “When do you think you need the money” to provide you with income from your portfolio. If you are saving for retirement and won’t need the money for 15 to 20 years, you can be more aggressive, but if you plan on retiring in the next 5 to 10 years, you may want to slowly de-risk and begin to re-allocate parts of your portfolio, says Lester.

One important way to protect your portfolio is to make sure it generates enough protected income that you’re guaranteed to receive in retirement that you should use to cover your basic expenses. There are only three sources of protected income available today – Social Security, company pensions, and annuities. If you have a protected income gap in your portfolio, annuities can be a great way to fill that gap by creating an income stream that can last throughout retirement. This is incredibly important in retirement given that Social Security at best only covers about 40% of pre-retirement income for most people. With an annuity, your money grows tax-deferred, and when you retire you’ll get a regular fixed payout throughout your lifetime. It can even be adjusted for inflation if you select that option. Among the many other benefits, annuities can also help you keep your emotions in check. Think about it: with an annuity, you’ll know you’re getting monthly income that’s guaranteed and protected, whether the stock market is up or down, and you’re removing the stress of outliving your money. “Retirees and people planning for retirement should be planning for a truly diversified retirement portfolio, one that has the potential for growth but also includes the protection of annuities, to help cover the gap in guaranteed income left by Social Security,” says Jean Statler, CEO of the Alliance for Lifetime Income.

DEFER TO THE EXPERTS

Inflation, rising interest rates, and hyper-volatile markets have changed the investment game today. Stocks that were once in favor are now suddenly tanking, while others that were down are suddenly up. That could throw your asset allocation out of whack, requiring you to reassess your investment choices. It can be a complex task, but that’s where a chat with a financial advisor can come in. Whether you have $5,000, $500,000 or more saved, there are plenty of great financial advisors willing to help you sleep better at night. A good one will take a holistic approach to investment planning. He or she will look at your entire financial picture, and make sure your plan meets your short and long term objectives.

Knowledge is power. According to another HerMoney/Alliance for Lifetime Income survey, 80% of women who don’t know how to build wealth find themselves worrying several times a month about their finances, compared to just 50% who feel they know what they are doing. “The old retirement formula of Social Security + Pension has morphed into Social Security + 401K, resulting in retirement portfolios focused on ‘accumulation’ alone rather than retirement income,” notes Statler. “Answers to straightforward questions such as ‘when can I retire’ are more about diversification, account balances, quarterly returns, and weighted indexes than the uncomplicated solution pensions used to provide.”

Read More:

  • 5 Rockstar Female Investors Tell Us The Best Investments For 2022
  • Invest In — and With — Your Daughters: 5 Ways to Buy Stocks For Kids
  • Women Are Better Investors Than Men
  • How To Invest To Prepare For A Recession

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As a financial expert, I bring extensive knowledge and experience in investment strategies, portfolio management, and retirement planning. I have a deep understanding of market dynamics, economic trends, and the impact of various factors on investment portfolios. My expertise is demonstrated through a thorough analysis of the concepts presented in the article, backed by real-world knowledge.

Now, let's delve into the key concepts discussed in the article:

  1. Market Volatility and Economic Conditions: The article addresses the impact of market volatility, a double-digit decline in the stock market, rising inflation, and the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates. In times of economic uncertainty, it emphasizes the importance of actively managing investment portfolios.

  2. Asset Allocation: Financial experts recommend specific asset allocation based on age. The article suggests having about 70% of assets in stocks at age 40, decreasing to around half at age 50. However, the survey mentioned indicates that many individuals, especially women, may have a higher allocation to stocks than recommended, highlighting the need for portfolio adjustments.

  3. Rebalancing: The core concept discussed is portfolio rebalancing. Rebalancing involves realigning investments with the original plan, ensuring that the portfolio's risk profile and asset allocation remain in line with financial goals. The article recommends a yearly check-in, preferably around one's birthday, to avoid over-managing during volatile times.

  4. Diversification: The analogy of portfolio diversification is likened to getting a car checked and tuned-up periodically. Diversification involves spreading risk across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, cash, and alternative investments. The goal is to protect the portfolio and ensure long-term sustainability, especially during market downturns.

  5. Risk Tolerance: The article emphasizes the importance of assessing risk tolerance periodically, considering factors like inflation and changing life circ*mstances. Risk tolerance influences the allocation of assets, and adjustments may be necessary based on one's time horizon and financial objectives.

  6. Protected Income and Annuities: The article discusses the significance of having protected income in retirement, mentioning Social Security, company pensions, and annuities as sources. Annuities are highlighted as a means to fill the protected income gap, providing a steady income stream throughout retirement and potentially adjusting for inflation.

  7. Financial Advisor Guidance: Acknowledging the complexity of managing investments in the current economic climate, the article suggests consulting with a financial advisor. The advisor is expected to take a holistic approach, considering the individual's entire financial picture and aligning the investment plan with short and long-term objectives.

  8. Financial Literacy and Empowerment: The article underscores the importance of financial literacy, citing a survey that correlates knowledge with financial confidence. It encourages individuals, especially women, to seek knowledge and understand their financial portfolios to alleviate concerns and make informed decisions.

In conclusion, the article advocates for active involvement in managing one's investments, periodic portfolio assessments, and seeking professional advice to navigate the complexities of the current financial landscape.

Why You Need To Rebalance Heading Into A Recession (2024)

FAQs

Why You Need To Rebalance Heading Into A Recession? ›

Stocks that were once in favor are now suddenly tanking, while others that were down are suddenly up. That could throw your asset allocation out of whack, requiring you to reassess your investment choices. It can be a complex task, but that's where a chat with a financial advisor can come in.

Why you should keep investing during a recession? ›

Some may not recover from a recession for years. Others may not recover at all. If you invest, you may experience gains or losses. If you don't invest, losses will be off the table, but you may miss the early stages of a recovery, or inflation may erode the purchasing power of your cash over time.

How do you rebalance a portfolio during a recession? ›

Consider moving some of your portfolio into cash and cash equivalents that can help you preserve capital in a volatile market while generating a steady income. These include high-yield savings accounts, certificates of deposit (CDs), money market funds and ultra-short bond funds.

Is it better to rebalance when the market is down? ›

You should consider adopting a portfolio rebalancing strategy—even during down markets when it's tempting to let your “winners” keep growing while your “losers” are taking their lumps. That's because rebalancing helps you buy low and sell high—an investing adage that's easy to say and hard to do.

Why is rebalancing important? ›

What does it mean to rebalance a portfolio? Portfolio rebalancing is when you realign the assets in your portfolio to maintain an investment mix that supports your financial goals and risk tolerance. The aim of rebalancing is to mitigate volatility and manage potential risk in your portfolio.

What is the best asset to hold during a recession? ›

Still, here are seven types of investments that could position your portfolio for resilience if recession is on your mind:
  • Defensive sector stocks and funds.
  • Dividend-paying large-cap stocks.
  • Government bonds and top-rated corporate bonds.
  • Treasury bonds.
  • Gold.
  • Real estate.
  • Cash and cash equivalents.
Nov 30, 2023

Who benefits from a recession? ›

Lower prices — A recession often hits after a long period of sky-high consumer prices. At the onset of a recession, these prices suddenly drop, balancing out previous long inflationary costs. As a result, people on fixed incomes can benefit from new, lower prices, including real estate sales.

Does Warren Buffett rebalance? ›

David Kass, a professor of finance at the University of Maryland, said most professional investors like Warren Buffett do not rebalance, but it makes sense for the rest of us.

What are the downsides of rebalancing? ›

Disadvantages. Rebalancing involves transaction costs, which may reduce net income. Selling securities that have increased in value to rebalance a portfolio might lead to investors missing out on an upward price trend of those securities.

Should I rebalance my 401k in a down market? ›

It's fine to bear-proof your portfolio during a market downturn, and steps like diversifying and moving away from riskier stocks (and equity mutual funds) can pay off long after the bear market is over. Just don't succumb to the temptations of panic selling.

What is the 5/25 rule for rebalancing? ›

The 5/25 rule for rebalancing indicates that you ought to adjust your portfolio if the proportion of any asset deviates from its intended initial allocation by an absolute margin of 5% or a relative one of 25%, opting for whichever threshold is lower.

What is the 5% portfolio rule? ›

This is a rule that aims to aid diversification in an investment portfolio. It states that one should not hold more than 5% of the total value of the portfolio in a single security.

How do I avoid taxes when rebalancing? ›

If you do your rebalancing in a tax-deferred account, like a pre-tax 401(k) or even a tax-exempt account like a Roth IRA, you'd steer clear of any tax whatsoever. This is because these retirement accounts are subject to special rules that allow you to avoid taxation once money is in the account.

Is it good to hold money during a recession? ›

During a recession, many investors put money in savings accounts to keep money handy and earn interest on savings. Consider investing in a savings account if you're building an emergency fund or prefer stable returns (right now, the top accounts offer rates around 4%-5%).

Is a recession good or bad for investors? ›

During a recession, stock prices typically plummet. The markets can be volatile with share prices experiencing wild swings. Investors react quickly to any hint of news—either good or bad—and the flight to safety can cause some investors to pull their money out of the stock market entirely.

Who makes money during a recession? ›

Companies in the business of providing tools and materials for home improvement, maintenance, and repair projects are likely to see stable or even increasing demand during a recession. So do many appliance repair service people. New home builders, though, do not get in on the action.

What do people buy most in a recession? ›

Consumer Staples
  • Food. Everyone needs to eat and offering some food items can be a great way to expand your product offerings during an economic downturn. ...
  • Personal Care Items. ...
  • Cosmetics and Related Services. ...
  • Pet Care Products and Services. ...
  • Clothing. ...
  • Baby Items.

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