The Dow’s trip to 37,000 and how long it may take to get to 38,000 (2024)

A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 13, 2023.

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high above 37,000 on Wednesday, hitting a new 1,000-point milestone for the first time since Nov. 2, 2021, or more than 700 days. History suggests the next milestone will come sooner.

The Dow, a price-weighted average of 30 stocks that are often seen as the "blue chip" names of the U.S. economy, was first created in 1896 — with only 12 stocks — and first hit the 1,000-point milestone in 1972.

According to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the average, the Dow has hit a new 1,000-point mark every 518 days on average since then.

Dow milestones over time

Level Date Days Between 1K levels
100011/14/1972--
20001/8/19875168
30004/17/19911560
40002/23/19951408
500011/21/1995271
600010/14/1996328
70002/13/1997122
80007/16/1997153
90004/6/1998264
100003/29/1999357
110005/3/199935
1200010/19/20062726
130004/25/2007188
140007/19/200785
150005/7/20132119
1600011/21/2013198
170007/3/2014224
1800012/23/2014173
1900011/22/2016700
200001/25/201764
210003/1/201735
220008/2/2017154
2300010/18/201777
2400011/30/201743
250001/4/201835
260001/17/201813
270007/11/2019540
2800011/15/2019127
290001/15/202061
3000011/24/2020314
310001/7/202144
320003/10/202162
330003/17/20217
340004/15/202129
350007/23/202199
3600011/2/2021102
3700012/13/2023771

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; CNBC

The gap between milestones has gotten smaller over time, which makes sense because the percentage change between each increment shrinks as the index level climbs.

Since the Dow hit the 20,000 mark in January 2017, it has crossed the next round-number threshold every 143 days on average. On five occasions over that time, the Dow has reached the next milestone within 40 days.

This year, the Dow hit a new record high before the Nasdaq Composite or the S&P 500 — considered a better yardstick for the U.S. stock market by institutional investors because of its diversity and market cap weighting — but the rally has not been limited to the Dow. In fact, the Dow's percentage gain in 2023 trails far behind both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

Bill Baruch, president at Blue Line Futures, said on "Worldwide Exchange" on Thursday that futures contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 are also flirting with record highs.

"This could really feed on itself. I don't see a reason for the market to fall off at the moment. There's been post-Fed reactions that have reversed … but this looks pretty good here, and the Christmas rally may have just begun," Baruch said.

Wednesday's record-setting finish came after the Federal Reserve signaled that it expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024. The gap between new milestones for the Dow was caused in part by the Fed's rate-hiking cycle, which began in March 2022 and weighed on the stock market.

The Dow’s trip to 37,000 and how long it may take to get to 38,000 (2024)

FAQs

The Dow’s trip to 37,000 and how long it may take to get to 38,000? ›

A history of the Dow and big round numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record high above 38,000 on Monday. The average number of days between thousand-point milestones for the Dow has gotten shorter over time.

Will the Dow reach $38,000? ›

The Dow then climbed above 38,000 in January 2024. 1 The index reached a new all-time high on May 16, 2024, surpassing 40,000 for the first time.

Has the Dow Jones ever reached $40,000? ›

The Dow Jones hits 40,000 points for the first time ever : NPR. The Dow Jones hits 40,000 points for the first time ever Stock markets received a boost from new data showing inflation is easing. Lower inflation has raised hopes about the U.S. economy — but there are still a lot of unknowns.

Did the Dow ever reach 38000? ›

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 22, 2024. Stocks gained on Monday, building on last week's gangbusters rally, with the Dow crossing the 38,000 mark for the first time ever.

Has the Dow ever hit 36,000? ›

The bursting of the dot-com bubble of 2000, September 11 attacks in 2001, and the Financial crisis of 2007–2008 ensured that the titular target would not be attained within the author's suggested timeframe. It wasn't until 2021 when Dow 36,000 would be reached in actuality, 22 years after the book was published.

Will the Dow hit $40,000 in 2024? ›

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on May 16, 2024. Wall Street is buoyed by hopes the Federal Reserve will pull back on its restrictive monetary policy after data showed inflation is beginning to ease.

How high will the Dow Jones go in 2024? ›

In 2024, the Dow Jones rate will be between $37,000 and $38,000. Bank experts predict that corporate income will remain at the same level, which will support stocks during a recession. In addition, earnings growth shortfalls and minimal equity risk premiums are the main constraints on the index's growth.

Will the Dow ever hit $50,000? ›

THE MIRACLE OF COMPOUNDING

Believe it or not, simply compounding at that rate would bring us to Dow 50,000 by 2028 and Dow 60,000 by 2031. Heck Dow One-Hundred Thousand would arrive early in the 2040s and Dow One Million in the 2080s!

Is the Dow hitting $40,000 good? ›

What does the Dow hitting 40,000 mean for you? MacBride says Dow 40K should mostly be a sign that you should stay invested for the long term. “Investing today is essentially your bet that the world economy is going to continue to grow, and you want to be part of that growth,” she says.

What is the highest Dow in history? ›

Records
CategoryAll-time highs
Closing41,198.08Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Intraday41,376.00Thursday, July 18, 2024

Has Nasdaq ever hit 17000? ›

The Nasdaq Composite Index hit a series of record highs and closed above the 17,000 milestone for the first time ever. Solid corporate earnings, artificial intelligence (AI) boom and rate cut bets have been driving stocks higher.

What is the highest stock price ever? ›

Berkshire Hathaway is the most expensive stock listed on U.S. exchanges. At the time of this writing, Berkshire Hathaway stock was trading at $614,530 a share — but that price is for its Class A stock (BRK. A). Retail investors can buy its Class B stock (BRK.

Has the stock market ever been above $37,000? ›

The Dow industrials surpassed the 37000 level intraday for the first time on record Wednesday. The blue-chip index hit its last thousand-point milestone, 36000, in November 2021. UnitedHealth Group has been the biggest point contributor over that period.

Will the Dow hit $30,000? ›

They are the ones that tell us how the market is really doing. Case in point: The Dow hit 30,000 for the first time on November 24, 2020. Crossing 40,000 today, May 16, 2024, gives it a 33.333333333333% return in a little under three and a half years.

Has the Dow ever reached $40,000? ›

The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped the 40,000-point level at Friday's close for the first time in its history. Originating way back in 1896 and often considered a barometer of the overall U.S. economy, the index tracks the performance of 30 blue-chip companies.

Who first predicted Dow 40,000? ›

David Elias forecast in a book that the index would cross the milestone by 2016. A couple of market crises interfered with the timeline of David Elias's prophesy. David Elias received a surprise in the mail earlier this month: a dozen baseball caps with Dow 40000 printed on the front and Elias on the back.

What is the Dow forecast for the next 5 years? ›

The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade above 40,000 points in the second half of 2024 and and advance up to 44,000 points by the end of the year.

How high will the Dow Jones be in 2030? ›

Yardeni Research's chief investment strategist, Ed Yardeni, told clients in a note that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for a 50% rise to 60,000 by 2030, and the S&P 500 could climb to 8,000, thanks to earnings.

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