The much-awaited Reliance Jio IPO, along with refining and petchem upcycle in FY26-27, would be key catalysts for the Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) stock going ahead. The upcoming AGM and the commencement of New Energy operations will be key events to watch in coming months, a couple of analysts said as they suggested up to 22 per cent upside on the most-valued stock on Dalal Street, post the oil-to-telecom operator's June quarter results. Analysts largely trimmed their FY25 earnings estimates for RIL by 2-3 per cent but rolled forward their earnings estimates to arrive at revised target prices for the counter.
Following Q1 earnings, Nomura India trimmed its FY25 and FY26 Ebitda estimates for RIL by 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. That said, it reiterated its 'Buy' rating on RIL with a higher target price of Rs 3,600, as it rolled over its estimates to June 2026.
"RIL is our top pick in the sector. We note the outlook across segments remains optimistic: Retail underpinned by store additions, strong growth of digital/new commerce and operating leverage; and Jio’s tariff increase will lead to value creation and monetisation of investments, enabling an improvement in FCF generation and return ratios; we note upside risks to our FY26F/FY27F ARPU growth estimates," it said.
Emkay Global also trimmed FY25 and FY26 Ebitda estimates for RIL by 2-3 per cent by lowering Retail & O2C earnings. The whole retail sector has seen weakness in discretionary categories, it said as it rolled over its estimates to September 2025 and suggested a target of Rs 3,335 per share. Emkay has raised Jio's multiple to 12 times EV/Ebitda from 11 times. Any positive development regarding vertical monetisation and new energy are key triggers for RIL, it said.
MOFSL said it is bullish on RIL's refining business given capacity growth globally will lag oil demand growth. In telecom, it is modeling an ARPU CAGR of 12 per cent over FY24-26. In addition, it sees the potential IPO for RJio to unlock valuation for the telecom business.
"We also remain positive on the retail business, where we are modeling 19 per cent revenue/Ebitda CAGR each over FY24-26," it said while suggesting a price target of Rs 3,435 on RIL.
RIL’s New Energy rollout will unleash the next leg of growth, along with conventional businesses, Nuvama said as it rolled forward its valuation estimates to September 2026 and raised target price to Rs 3,786. Retain ‘BUY’.
Nomura said RIL has a 7 per cent sensitivity to Ebitda if ARPU is 5 per cent higher than currently factored. It expects the O2C business to benefit from sustained strong global oil demand growth of over 1mn b/d in 2024 and 2025, tight oil product markets and a likely recovery in petchem margins. The RIL's upstream business has ramped up strongly and will continue its strong performance in FY25F, it said.
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