The longest-running bull market in history celebrated its 10-year anniversary on Sat., March 9, 2019. It all started from the post-crisis low of March 9, 2009. The S&P 500's (SPX) closing price on that fateful day in early 2009 was precisely 676.53. As of the market close on Wed., Oct. 9, 2019, the S&P 500 settled at 2,919.40. That represents around a 330% rise in a 10-year period. Not bad for a large-cap stock index.
Key Takeaways
The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history.
It’s topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
However, the current bull market, which has seen the S&P 500 rise 330% in its 10+ years, is still second to the 90s bull run, which returned 417%.
The chart below displays some of the most salient market, economic, and political events that have helped to move the S&P 500 in one direction or another during this remarkable decade-long run.
The 2009-2019 bull run topped the nearly 10-year bull run of the 1990s. The bull run that started in Oct. 1990 lasted 113 months, while the 2009 bull run is going on 127 months. Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven years, and it was the post-World War II run that started in 1949.
In terms of returns, the 2009 bull market has the longest streak but it remains in second in terms of the best return. The 2009 bull market has generated a 330% return since the March 2009 low. The bull market of the 1990s saw the S&P 500 post a 417% return over its nearly nine and a half years.
Meanwhile, the bull market following the Great Depression is close behind our current bull market. The Great Depression bull market started in June 1932, lasting 57 months, with the S&P 500 posting a 325% gain over that time.
Major Moves of This Bull Market
Some of the biggest and scariest drops during this recent bull market have been attributed simply to surging investor fear. This includes the 2011 anxieties over the spread of the European sovereign debt crisis. It also includes the most recent market plummet in the fourth quarter of 2018. Much of this massive drop was caused by fears of a global economic slowdown, a U.S.-China trade war, and rising U.S. interest rates.
Other market drops were triggered by freakish circ*mstances, including the 2010 'flash crash' and the 'Volmageddon' volatility eruption in early 2018. Also of note on this chart, the UK's Brexit referendum in mid-2016 (in which a majority of the UK public voted to leave the EU) registered only as a relatively limited and short-lived blip in the U.S. markets. Finally, when the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in earnest around the end of 2016 into 2017, the stock market took it in stride and continued to rise sharply.
What's Next for the Bull Market
The big question now, of course, is whether this 10-year rally will continue. Bull markets end with recessions, and while we've seen many bumps on the road to where we are now, the stock market has managed to recover (at least eventually) each and every time. There will always be serious risk factors and fears that pervade markets.
Late in 2018 was a rather severe example of this. But we don't believe this bull market, though it's been exceptionally long, has run its course just yet. Many economists still see growth in the economy and aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon. Unemployment continues to fall and the recent corporate tax rate cuts can help keep spending elevated.
The record-setting bull market of the roaring 1990s lasted more than a decade and remains one of the most impressive periods of prolonged stock market gains in history. The booming U.S. economy of the 1990s was fueled by the end of the Cold War and the dawn of the Internet Age.
The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official. The onset of a new bull market has historically been a very reliable stock market indicator.
Companies bet more on their future during bull markets. Buoyed by consumer buying, businesses focus on expansion and invest in themselves. Unemployment rates frequently go down during bull markets. With companies expanding, they hire more employees, decreasing unemployment.
The current bull market started in October 2022, which means it is now just less than 19 months old. If it ended now, it would be the shortest bull market ever. Most bull markets last much longer. The last 12 bull markets have averaged more than five years.
A bull market is a trend in a financial market characterized by rising prices and investor optimism. It can occur in the stock market as well as the bond, real estate, currency, and commodity markets.
A bull market is a market that is on the rise and where the conditions of the economy are generally favorable. A bear market exists in an economy that is receding and where most stocks are declining in value.
The previous bull market lasted less than two years, starting in March 2020 and ending in January 2022. Before that, stocks were in a bull market that lasted nearly a decade, from March 2009 amid the Great Recession to February 2020, as Covid-19 emerged as a global threat.
High trading volumes and increasing liquidity: During a bullish market, the volume of traded stocks tends to rise significantly. This increase in trading activity suggests heightened investor interest and confidence in the market.
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
The bull market of the 'roaring 90s' was defined by the nascent technological boom brought on by the internet. As such, it was the US tech sector that drove returns.
Excluding the 2020 example due to its abnormal nature (i.e., COVID-19), Figure 5 plots the starts to this century's bull markets (2002 and 2009) on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices. The S&P 500 clearly trails the 2009 market, while it closely tracks the 2002 case.
This was the third straight year that the popular S&P 500 Index scored double-digit gains. We haven't seen that kind of a winning streak since the late 1990s. There's no other way to say it. It's a Raging Bull market.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
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