Knight Frank's Global Prime Residential Forecast 2024 | DM Properties Marbella (2024)
The global property market has recently witnessed some notable trends, as detailed in Knight Frank’s latest Global Prime Residential Forecast. This research outlines anticipated performance trends in the world’s top luxury housing markets for the upcoming year, with some of the key risks and opportunities that are likely to emerge.
Positive Growth Predictions: Knight Frank's revised forecasts project an average growth of 2.4% in prime residential prices for 2023 and a further 2.5% in 2024. This upward trend underscores the sector's robustness amidst various economic challenges.
Outperforming Asset Class: Over the past decade, prime residential properties have consistently outperformed most other asset types, highlighting their reliability as an investment.
City-Specific Forecasts: Dubai is anticipated to lead in 2023 with a projected 14% growth in prime prices, while Auckland is expected to top the charts in 2024 with a 10% increase.
Market Resilience: Despite economic uncertainties, a sense of cautious optimism prevails. Buyers are encouraged by the easing economic headwinds and constrained supply in several key cities.
Global Economic Context: Despite the challenges posed by inflation and interest rate hikes, the global economy has shown resilience. The report notes varying approaches by central banks worldwide to these challenges, with a general trend of rising taxes targeting property and wealth.
Cash Buyers on the Rise: There's been an increase in cash purchases in the prime property sector, rising from 46% to 52% in the last six months.
Election Impact: With 2024 set to be a major election year globally, housing is expected to become a key political issue. This could lead to more policy changes affecting the luxury property market. Conversely, easing tax and property regulations are seen as major opportunities.
Policy and Tax Changes: Various regions have implemented significant policy and tax changes, impacting the market differently. For instance, Singapore has increased stamp duty for non-residents, while Los Angeles has introduced a new mansion tax.
Knight Frank’s analysis provides a comprehensive look into the global prime residential market, offering valuable insights for investors and market observers.
We now expect UK mainstream prices to rise by 3% in 2024, which compares to a decline of 4% predicted in October. With low-level single-digit growth in subsequent years, we expect cumulative growth of 20.5% in the five years to 2028. Data from Halifax and Nationwide certainly suggests a corner is being turned.
The average selling price of a home in Vancouver increased by 0.5% year-over-year to $1,207,100 in June 2024. The average selling price of a single-family home in Vancouver increased by 3.6% year-over-year to $2,057,600 in June 2024.
Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.
On a regional basis, the highest average house prices in England in May 2024 were in London (£523,000) and the South East (£376,000). The lowest average house prices were in the North East (£162,000).
STR now projects full-year 2024 U.S. occupancy of 62.8 percent, markedly lower than the 63.6 percent the company forecast in January, its most recent, and also lower than the 63 percent recorded in 2023.
Following modest weakness last year, UK GDP is expected to have risen by 0.4% in 2024 Q1 and to grow by 0.2% in Q2. Despite picking up during the forecast period, demand growth is expected to remain weaker than potential supply growth throughout most of that period.
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Black Knight in the last 3 months. The average price target is $71.00 with a high forecast of $75.00 and a low forecast of $65.00. The average price target represents a -6.28% change from the last price of $75.76.
Average rent for England was £1,301 in May 2024, up 8.6% (£103) from a year earlier. This annual rise was lower than in the 12 months to April 2024 (8.9%), and represents the second consecutive month of easing annual inflation since the record-high annual rise of 9.1% in March 2024.
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