Improved outlook for Spain’s real estate sector (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the real estate market in Spain? ›

In 2024, the Real Estate market market in Spain is projected to reach a value of US$7.17tn. The Residential Real Estate sector is expected to dominate the market with a projected market volume of US$5.69tn in the same year.

According to experts, house prices in Spain in 2024 will depend solely on what and where you are looking for housing. This year, price pressure is expected to increase in the most popular and sought-after locations, but in the rest of the country, market value will stabilize or even fall slightly.

Looking ahead to 2024, Spain's real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, albeit at a more moderate pace. Economic recovery, increased vaccination rates, and easing travel restrictions are likely to boost consumer confidence and activity in the housing market.

Here at CaixaBank Research, we have improved our forecasts for Spain's real estate market for 2024-2025: we anticipate an increase in home prices of 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, and sales of around 550,000 units per year.

Economic activity in Spain is expected to grow at 2.1% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025 driven by domestic demand and sustained by continued labour market resilience. The implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) is set to underpin investment growth over the forecast horizon.

Spain ranks fourth in the top 10 most attractive European countries for investors in 2024, being the only country with two cities in this ranking – Madrid and Barcelona – demonstrating good forecasts for the real estate sector.

At the moment there is a question of whether to buy now or wait for interest rates to fall, but if you wait it will probably end up costing more," he says. "Whether buying for home ownership or investment, there is no doubt that despite the high interest rates, now is a good time to buy.

Spain house prices grew 3.3% YoY in May 2024, following an increase of 3.2% YoY in the previous month. YoY growth data is updated monthly, available from Jan 2002 to May 2024, with an average growth rate of 3.5%. House price data reached an all-time high of 21.0% in Sep 2004 and a record low of -11.7% in Apr 2013.

The housing market in Spain appears to be recovering steadily in the first quarter of 2024, with prices rising and transaction numbers increasing thanks to relatively low interest rates and continuing demand from foreign investors.

What is the inflation rate in Spain in 2025? ›

Core inflation will also slow gradually over the next three years, from an average rate of 4.1% in 2023, to 2.2% in 2024, 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. The remainder of this section is structured as follows. First, the key assumptions and determinants underlying these projections are described.

As of March 2024, our partner can get very good conditions for mortgages for our non-residents buyers: Fixed rates: from 2.85% Mixed solution: from 2.70% fixed for 5 years, after Euribor + 0.60% Variable rates: from 2.50% fixed for 1 year, after Euribor + 0.20%

House prices in Spain are forecast to fall in 2024, after increasing by 1.2 percent in 2023. Nevertheless, prices are expected to pick up in 2025, with an increase of one percent. The Portuguese housing market, on the other hand, grew by 5.5 percent in 2023, but was forecast to contract in the next two years.

According to real estate agencies, now is a good time to sell property in Spain, as prices are stabilising at maximums and demand still has purchasing power.

As a whole, Spanish property prices have risen steadily over the last few years. Below is the annual change based on Spain House Price Index produced by TINSA – a leading Spanish property valuation expert. As you can see above, there have been gains in all years. Nothing too drastic – just single-digit growth.