Food prices mirroring past peaks despite continuous drop (2024)


This blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.

The World Bank’s food price index weakened throughout 2023, averaging for the year as a whole 9 percent lower than 2022. The decline, reflecting robust harvests, unfolded despite the non-renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, some trade restrictions, and the ongoing El Niño. Global food prices are expected to ease further in 2024 and 2025 (2 and 3 percent, respectively) as the global supply outlook continues to improve. Despite recent declines, inflation-adjusted food prices in 2023 remain at levels comparable to the food price spikes of 2007-08 and 2011-12. Risks to the outlook (discussed in this blog) are balanced and reflect further El Niño developments, macroeconomic conditions, and trade restrictions.



Grain supplies rebounding. Global grain supplies are expected to rebound by 42 million metric tons (mmt) (or 1 percent) in 2023-24, reversing the previous year's decline—this increase is remarkably similar to the two-decade average growth of 46 mmt. Global maize exports are also poised for a significant rebound, with an estimated increase of over 11 percent, fueled by robust production in Argentina, the European Union, and the United States. Conversely, wheat exports are projected to decline by 6 percent, amid lower exports from Australia (-42 percent, in response to El Niño), Canada (-8 percent), the United States (-4 percent), and Ukraine (-27 percent, following the non-renewal of the Black Sea deal). Global rice exports are set to drop nearly 4 percent, as increased exports from China, Pakistan, and the United States are unlikely to balance declines from the top three rice exporters—India, Thailand, and Viet Nam.


Oilseed supplies to increase. Global oilseed supply for 2023-24 is expected to increase by 75 million metric tons (or 4 percent), nearly double the average annual growth during 1990-2022. Global output of soybeans (the largest oilseed crop) in the current 2023-24 season is expected to surpass the last season’s record output, largely due to Brazil’s robust output. Argentina’s soybean production is expected to rebound by more than 90 percent from the drought-affected levels of the previous year.


Stock-to-use ratios stabilized. The stock-to-use ratio for the food aggregate, a rough indicator of supply relative to projected demand, is projected to hold steady in 2023-24. However, it will be slightly higher for maize and somewhat lower for wheat and rice. Although the ratios have moderated since their recent peaks, their current levels, which are considerably higher than their 2006-08 levels, are consistent with adequate supply conditions.


Domestic food price inflation moderating. Global median year-on-year domestic food price inflation in 2023Q3 averaged above 8 percent, down from its peak of nearly 14 percent in November 2022. By November 2023, the median food price inflation had fallen to 6 percent. This moderation partly reflects the declining global prices of many agricultural commodities. Despite its recent drop, food price inflation is still high in many parts of the world, particularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries where the median food price inflation was 9.5 and 8 percent, respectively, in November 2023. By comparison, the median food price inflation in upper-middle-income and high-income countries during the same month was 5 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively.

Food prices mirroring past peaks despite continuous drop (2024)

FAQs

Why aren't food prices coming down? ›

Economists say some of the main factors driving up prices are labor, transportation, shipping and packaging. “At the core of it, you can say it boils down to labor,” Volpe said. Take trucking.

Why is food getting so expensive? ›

Food prices have always been volatile — especially so during the pandemic. Thanks to a combination of overall inflation, supply-chain disruptions and tariffs on certain foreign imports, food prices have risen 26% since the start of 2020.

Who were the most affected by increases in the price of food? ›

Rising prices at the grocery store and restaurants don't impact Americans evenly. Low-income consumers are hit much harder because they must spend a much larger share of their income to afford the basics.

What prices are going up in 2024? ›

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its forecast for 2024 that shows all food prices are expected to increase 2.5% while food-at-home prices are predicted to go up 1.6%. Between January and February, the Consumer Price Index for food at home rose just 0.1% and was still 1% higher than February 2023.

Are grocery stores price gouging? ›

Notably, consumers are still facing the negative impact of the pandemic's price hikes, as the Commission's report finds that some in the grocery retail industry seem to have used rising costs as an opportunity to further raise prices to increase their profits, which remain elevated today.

Who controls grocery prices? ›

The president does not control grocery prices in the U.S. Instead, “prices generally are set by sellers, and price change typically comes from market forces,” according to Steve Reed, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Will groceries go down in 2024? ›

Global Food Price Crisis

Oxford Economics forecasts a decline in 2024, easing pressure on consumers. Abundant supply, especially in wheat and corn, is driving this shift. Recent months saw abundant harvests of staple crops, driving prices down. Wheat futures dropped around 10% year-to-date, and corn futures about 6%.

Will prices go back down? ›

They're most likely gone forever. That's because prices, on average, are a one-way ticket, generally rising over time, and falling only when something has gone wrong with the economy. Officials at the Federal Reserve who set the nation's monetary policy are determined to keep it that way.

Why are eggs so expensive in 2024? ›

A dozen large white cage-free eggs cost about $3.02 per dozen in California, according to USDA market data released June 7. Egg prices shot up in California at the start of 2024 because a string of bird flu cases in December and January were concentrated in the state.

Does the government set food prices? ›

Many factors influencing the food supply chain can affect retail food prices, such as global trade issues, pandemics, animal and plant disease outbreaks, and war. Federal agencies don't control food prices, but may indirectly affect them.

Who is responsible for high food prices? ›

Studies have found that corporate profits account for more than 50 percent of our current inflation. Egg and meat producers, dominated by a handful of multibillion-dollar companies, have engaged in or are alleged to have engaged in price fixing, further exacerbating any external issues.

Which country has the highest food inflation in the world? ›

Between December 2023 and April 2024, Zimbabwe was the country with the highest level of real food inflation worldwide. Compared to the previous year, food prices had increased by 46 percent in Zimbabwe.

What foods will be short in 2024? ›

Food Items That Could Soon Be More Expensive and Harder to Find...
  • Eggs. In 2023, egg prices surged due to the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak, a contagious viral disease among birds. ...
  • Wheat & Flour. ...
  • Rice. ...
  • Chicken. ...
  • Beef. ...
  • Cooking Oils, Seed Oils, & Olive Oil. ...
  • Food Shortages in 2024.
Mar 30, 2024

How much does a loaf of bread cost in 2024? ›

Bread now costs over $2 per pound — $2.03, to be exact, as of January. Last January, the same pound cost just $1.89 for a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. A standard loaf of sliced white bread weighs 20oz, which means a loaf costs about $2.54, so $20 can buy you just shy of eight loaves.

Why won't inflation go down? ›

Historical data suggests a key factor in bringing down prices is a slowdown in consumer spending. Despite nearly half of Americans reporting they're in a worse financial situation than five years ago, they're still spending.

Will prices ever come back down? ›

They're most likely gone forever. That's because prices, on average, are a one-way ticket, generally rising over time, and falling only when something has gone wrong with the economy. Officials at the Federal Reserve who set the nation's monetary policy are determined to keep it that way.

Why hasn't inflation come down? ›

Here's why prices still aren't going down. Historical data suggests a key factor in bringing down prices is a slowdown in consumer spending. Despite nearly half of Americans reporting they're in a worse financial situation than five years ago, they're still spending.

Will meat prices go down in 2024? ›

(NEXSTAR) — After the last few years, it may not be surprising to hear about rising costs at the grocery store (remember when egg prices skyrocketed during the pandemic?). Now, experts are warning another grocery item could reach record prices: beef.

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