Dear Liz: I am confused about “safe withdrawal rates” from retirement accounts. I’ve read that withdrawing 4% of savings each year is the gold standard that financial planners utilize to ensure that life savings are preserved in retirement.
However, if the Standard & Poor’s 500 index returns on average 8% a year, and if the life savings are locked down in a mutual fund that is indexed to the S&P 500, then shouldn’t the annual withdrawal amount, to preserve those savings, be 8%? Limiting my withdrawals to 4% means my retirement would be pushed several years down the road. Can you clarify?
Answer: It’s good you asked this question before you retired, rather than afterward when it might have been too late.
You’re right that on average, the S&P 500 has returned at least 8% annualized returns in every rolling 30-year period since 1926. (“Rolling” means each 30-year period starting in 1926, then 1927, then 1928, and so on.)
But the market doesn’t return 8% each and every year. Some years are up a lot more. And some are down — way down. In 2008, for example, the S&P 500 lost about 37% of its value in a single year.
Such big downturns are especially risky for retirees, because retirees are drawing money from a shrinking pool of assets. The money they withdraw doesn’t have the chance to benefit from the inevitable rebound when stock prices recover. Bad markets, particularly at the beginning of someone’s retirement, can dramatically increase the odds of running out of money.
Inflation also can vary, as can returns on cash and bonds. All these factors play a role in how long a pot of money can be expected to last. The “4% rule” resulted from research by financial planner William Bengen, who in the 1990s examined historical returns from 1926 to 1976. Bengen found there was no period when an initial 4% withdrawal, adjusted each year afterward for inflation, would have exhausted a diversified investment portfolio of stocks and bonds in less than 33 years.
Some subsequent research has suggested a 3% initial withdrawal rate might be better, especially for early retirees or those with more conservative, bond-heavy portfolios.
Free online calculators can give you some idea of whether you’re on track to retire. A good one to check out is T. Rowe Price’s retirement income calculator. But you’d be smart to run your findings past a fee-only financial planner as well. The decisions you make in the years around retirement are often irreversible, and what you don’t know can hurt you.
Deciding when to claim Social Security benefits
Dear Liz: In a recent article you discussed delaying Social Security benefits and wrote that for married couples, only the higher earner needs to wait until age 70 to get the largest possible check. I don’t understand the logic behind that statement.
I have always been told to wait until 70 to collect; however, my husband is the higher wage earner. Wouldn’t I still benefit from waiting until 70? If he is a few years younger than me, does that make a difference? If I don’t have to wait until 70, I am all for collecting at 66.
Answer: As you know, each year you delay boosts the check you get by roughly 7% to 8%. That’s a guaranteed return you can’t match elsewhere and why many financial planners encourage clients to delay claiming if they can. The “break-even” point — where the benefits you pass up are exceeded by the larger checks — can vary depending on the assumptions you make about investment returns, inflation and taxes. Generally speaking, you’ll be better off delaying until at least 66 if you live into your late 70s. If you delay until age 70, when your benefit maxes out, you’ll pass the break-even point in your early 80s.
None of us has a crystal ball, of course, and planners make the argument that Social Security should be viewed as longevity insurance: The longer you live, the more likely you are to spend your other assets and depend on your Social Security for most or all of your income. Given that reality, it makes sense to maximize that check.
That’s true for all individuals claiming Social Security, but married couples have another complication. When one dies, the other will have to get by on a single check — the larger of the two checks the couple was receiving. That’s the check that should be maximized, so it’s more important that the higher earner delay than that both spouses delay.
If you want a more detailed discussion of the issue, read financial planner Michael Kitces’ blog post “Why it rarely pays for both spouses to delay Social Security benefits” at kitces.com.
Liz Weston, certified financial planner, is a personal finance columnist for NerdWallet. Questions may be sent to her at 3940 Laurel Canyon, No. 238, Studio City, CA 91604, or by using the “Contact” form at asklizweston.com. Distributed by No More Red Inc.
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FAQs
Many financial experts recommend a 4% savings withdrawal rate per year to ensure you have enough to last throughout your retirement years. While 4% may a be widely accepted approach, it's best to determine your withdrawal rate with your financial advisor.
How much do I need to retire and never run out of money? ›
The 4% rule in retirement planning suggests withdrawing 4% of your retirement savings each year to prevent you from prematurely running out of money for at least 30 years. It's a general guideline to help estimate how much you need to save. However, some advisors recommend more or less than that rate.
How much can you withdraw in retirement and not run out of money? ›
The 4% rule entails withdrawing up to 4% of your retirement in the first year, and subsequently withdrawing based on inflation. Some risks of the 4% rule include whims of the market, life expectancy, and changing tax rates. The rule may not hold up today, and other withdrawal strategies may work better for your needs.
What is the $1000 a month rule for retirement? ›
According to the $1,000 per month rule, retirees can receive $1,000 per month if they withdraw 5% annually for every $240,000 they have set aside. For example, if you aim to take out $2,000 per month, you'll need to set aside $480,000. For $3,000 per month, you would need to save $720,000, and so on.
How do retired people not run out of money? ›
“Having multiple sources of income — such as Social Security, rental property income, retirement savings, pension and after-tax investments — ensures that you're not solely reliant on one source of income and can weather various market conditions,” she said.
How many people have $1,000,000 in retirement savings? ›
Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) data estimates that just 3.2% of Americans have $1 million or more in their retirement accounts. Here's how much most Americans have saved and what you can do to boost your retirement savings. Don't miss out: Click to see our list of best high-yield savings accounts.
How to ensure you don't run out of money in retirement? ›
If you're keen to avoid such a large drop in income, your best option may be to continue to work and save, waiting until you're confident you have enough to last before you retire. To make your savings stretch further, you can also seek expert advice on the most tax-efficient way to make withdrawals.
How much can I withdraw per year in retirement? ›
Key Takeaways
The 4% rule says people should withdraw 4% of their retirement funds in the first year after retiring and take that dollar amount, adjusted for inflation, every year after. The rule seeks to establish a steady and safe income stream that will meet a retiree's current and future financial needs.
How long will $1 million last in retirement? ›
For example, if you have retirement savings of $1 million, the 4% rule says that you can safely withdraw $40,000 per year during the first year — increasing this number for inflation each subsequent year — without running out of money within the next 30 years. Of course, the 4% rule isn't perfect.
Is $2,000 a month enough to retire on? ›
Retiring on a fixed income can seem daunting, but with some planning and commitment to a frugal lifestyle, it's possible to retire comfortably on $2,000 a month. This takes discipline but ultimately will allow you to have more freedom and happiness in your golden years without money worries.
In the recent GOBankingRates retirement survey, 56% of Americans said they plan to live on $1,500 a month or less in retirement (aside from housing costs). Yet for many, this is an unrealistically low amount, especially when you consider irregular expenses.
What is a good monthly retirement income? ›
The average retirement savings for a person about to retire are approximately, $225,000, equal to $450,000 combined for a couple that has saved equally. Following the conservative rule of thumb and withdrawing 4% a year will provide this couple with another $1,500 monthly or $18,000 a year.
What happens to retirees with no savings? ›
You may have to rely on Social Security
Many retirees with little to no savings rely solely on Social Security as their main source of income. You can claim Social Security benefits as early as age 62, but your benefit amount will depend on when you start filing for the benefit.
What do poor people do for retirement? ›
Programs such as Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, Medicaid, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are available to those who qualify. Older people with lower incomes may be able to find help with job training, housing, tax relief, and legal services.
Do most retirees have debt? ›
But for a growing number of older adults, debt has become an unwelcome traveling companion. According to the Survey of Consumer Finances, the number of households headed by adults ages 65 or older with any debt rose from 41.5% in 1992 to 60% in 2016.
Can you retire $1.5 million comfortably? ›
The 2024 study found that U.S. adults believe they need $1.46 million to retire comfortably. That projected number has gone up 50% since 2020, when the expected amount to retire then was reportedly $951,000. People worth more than $1 million in investable assets said they need about $4 million to retire comfortably.
How long will $500,000 last in retirement? ›
Retiring with $500,000 could sustain you for about 30 years if you follow the 4% withdrawal rule, which allows you to use approximately $20,000 per year. However, retiring at a younger age will likely reduce the amount you receive from Social Security benefits.
What is a sufficient amount of money to retire with? ›
10x your annual salary by 67
To fund an “above average” retirement lifestyle—where you spend 55% of your preretirement income—Fidelity recommends having 12 times your income saved at age 67, which is the normal Social Security retirement age.
