World Banks’ $707.5 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb (2024)

World Banks’ $707.5 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb (1)

No, dear reader. That headline is not hyperbole.

It’s based on official Bank Of International Settlements data.

For what that’s worth.

Money Trends Research has the story (emphasis in original):

$707,568,901,000,000: How (And Why) Banks Increased Total Outstanding Derivatives By A Record $107 Trillion In 6 Months

While everyone was focused on the impending European collapse, the latest soon to be refuted rumors of a quick fix from the Welt am Sonntag notwithstanding, the Bank of International Settlements reported a number that quietly slipped through the cracks of the broader media. Which is paradoxical because it is the biggest ever reported in the financial world: the number in question is $707,568,901,000,000 and represents the latest total amount of all notional Over The Counter (read unregulated) outstanding derivatives reported by the world’s financial institutions to the BIS for its semi-annual OTC derivatives report titled “OTC derivatives market activity in the first half of 2011.” Indicatively, global GDP is about $63 trillion if one can trust any numbers released by modern governments. Said otherwise, for the six month period ended June 30, 2011, the total number of outstanding derivatives surged past the previous all time high of $673 trillion from June 2008, and is now firmly in 7-handle territory: the synthetic credit bubble has now been blown to a new all time high. Another way of looking at the data is that one of the key contributors to global growth and prosperity in the past 10 years was an increase in total derivatives from just under $100 trillion to $708 trillion in exactly one decade. And soon we have to pay the mean reversion price.

What is probably just as disturbing is that in the first 6 months of 2011, the total outstanding notional of all derivatives rose from $601 trillion at December 31, 2010 to $708 trillion at June 30, 2011. A $107 trillion increase in notional in half a year. Needless to say this is the biggest increase in history…

Which brings us to the chart showing total outstanding notional derivatives by 6 month period below. The shaded area is what that the BIS, the bank regulators, and the OCC urgently hope that the general public promptly forgets about and brushes under the carpet.

Try not to laugh. Or cry. Or gloss over, because when it comes to visualizing $708 trillion most really are incapable of doing so.

World Banks’ $707.5 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb (2)

Click to enlarge

(click here for the full article)

What is the Aussie bank(ster)ing system’s share of that total?

According to the RBA, at June 30 2011 our banks held … wait for it … $16.97 Trillion in “Consolidated Off-Balance Sheet Business”.

An all-time record total. And a record increase of $2.14 Trillion in just 6 months.

Including almost $9 Trillion in OTC derivatives bets on Interest rates. And $2.2 Trillion in OTC bets on Foreign Exchange rates.

Can you say “galactic-scale casino”?

Seems our little Milky Way galaxy just isn’t big enough for our bank(st)er ‘masters of the universe’.

Because the dream of global carbon dioxide derivatives trading has always promised an intergalactic expansion of Big Bang proportions.

As your humble blogger has argued for so long, our Green-Labor government is playing their part in the banksters’ dream. Despite being presented as a “tax” for the first three years, the truth is that derivatives trading is the real goal of a scheme purportedly designed, and certainly fronted, by Trilateralist “economist” Ross Garnaut. A new form of wholly unregulated derivatives trading that will begin from Day 1 … before the so-called “fixed price” period ends, and the “ETS” begins.

Here’s a Bloomberg news article I missed back in November, reporting on an ASX announcement that adds further proof to that already presented in previous posts.

That the Clean Energy Future scheme, is the bankers’ carbon derivatives scam from Day 1 (emphasis added):

ASX Group, operator of Australia’s main stock exchange, plans to offer secondary and futures markets for carbon allowances before the country’s emission trading system begins in 2015, the exchange said.

Key to the success of the ETS will be the introduction of second and futures markets for carbon permits and any fungible carbon-related products,” the Sydney-based company said today in a statement. “The markets will generate the short and long- term price signals and risk mitigation required to underpin investment certainty.”

UPDATE:

For any readers wondering whether the ASX’s reference to “secondary and futures” markets does mean “derivatives”, take a look at the European Energy Exchange’s website, under “Market Data” – “Emissions Rights”:

World Banks’ $707.5 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb (3)

Click to enlarge

And consider the words of our own bankers:

Australian banks are eyeing opportunities to cash in on the proposed carbon tax by developing new financial products and services that capitalise on a market seen to be worth billions of dollars annually, according to a report by the Australian Financial Review…

ANZ’s head of energy trading said the value of the derivatives carbon market would dwarf the $10 billion initially raised by the government, according to the AFR.

For more, see my earlier article “Ticking Time Bomb Hidden In The Carbon Tax”.

Tags: BIS, carbon trading, clean energy future, counterparty risk, derivatives, OTC derivatives

World Banks’ $707.5 Trillion Derivatives Time Bomb (2024)

FAQs

What is the derivative debt bomb? ›

Key Takeaways. Derivatives time bomb refers to the potential for a dramatic disruption of the financial system and overall economy caused by a sudden unwinding of derivatives positions. The term is credited to the famous investor Warren Buffett, who has also called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction."

How did derivatives cause the financial crisis? ›

The financial crisis of 2008 exposed significant weaknesses in the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market, including the build-up of large counterparty exposures between market participants which were not appropriately risk-managed; limited transparency concerning levels of activity in the market and overall size of ...

Why are financial derivatives bad? ›

Risks of Derivatives

Potential risks include: Counterparty risk. The chance that the other party in an agreement will default can run high with derivatives, particularly when they're traded over-the-counter.

What is a bomb in finance? ›

A debt bomb is a situation occurring when a major financial institution, such as a multinational bank, defaults on its obligations which, in turn, causes disruption not only in the financial system of the institution's home country but also in the global financial system as a whole.

What did Warren Buffett say about derivatives? ›

Derivatives are contracts between two parties in which one pays the other if some other financial instrument (for example, a stock or a bond) reaches a certain price, up or down. On derivatives, Warren Buffett famously said: “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.”

Can you lose money on derivatives? ›

Over 90% of derivative traders lost money: Why you must avoid the trap of derivative trading - The Economic Times.

What is the biggest underlying issue with derivatives? ›

The main drawbacks of derivatives include counterparty risk, the inherent risks of leverage, and the fact that complicated webs of derivative contracts can lead to systemic risks.

Who controls the derivatives market? ›

Regulatory authorities:

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) regulates the parties in derivative contracts. The National Futures Association (NFA) oversees the derivative markets and parties to derivative contracts.

What did the bankers do with the derivatives? ›

Banks use derivatives to hedge, to reduce the risks involved in the bank's operations. For example, a bank's financial profile might make it vulnerable to losses from changes in interest rates. The bank could purchase interest rate futures to protect itself. Or, a pension fund can protect itself against credit default.

What are derivatives in simple words? ›

Definition of Derivatives

Derivatives are financial contracts, and their value is determined by the value of an underlying asset or set of assets. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and market indices are all common assets. The underlying assets' value fluctuates in response to market conditions.

What is an example of a derivative? ›

Examples of Derivatives

The current Exchange rate is 1 USD = 80 INR. The exporter decides to enter into a currency futures contract to sell USD and buy INR at the current exchange rate for the future date. Each futures contract represents a specific amount of foreign currency.

What are the four main types of derivatives? ›

The four different types of derivatives in India are as follows:
  • Forward Contracts.
  • Future Contracts.
  • Options Contracts.
  • Swap Contracts.

What is a bullet investment? ›

A bullet bond is a debt investment whose entire principal value is paid in whole upon maturity rather than amortized across its lifespan. Bullet Repayment: Definition, Examples, Vs. Amortization. A bullet repayment is a lump sum payment, typically very large, for the entire loan amount.

What is meltdown in finance? ›

Financial meltdown. Refers to events like steep fall in stock markets, decline in asset values, corporate losses etc. that hurt the economy and lead to losses for investors.

What does a dirty bomb fall under? ›

Background. A "dirty bomb" is one type of a "radiological dispersal device" (RDD) that combines a conventional explosive, such as dynamite, with radioactive material. The terms dirty bomb and RDD are often used interchangeably in the media.

What is a derivative in debt? ›

A credit derivative is a contract whose value depends on the creditworthiness or a credit event experienced by the entity referenced in the contract. Credit derivatives include credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, total return swaps, credit default swap options, and credit spread forwards.

What are the 4 derivatives? ›

In finance, there are four basic types of derivatives: forward contracts, futures, swaps, and options.

What are derivatives in housing crisis? ›

These derivatives did not have cash flows based on actual mortgages but tracked the performance of mortgage securities, enabling investors to speculate on mortgage security performance. Financial institutions also began to issue credit default swaps to insure investors against losses on these securities.

What is the difference between derivative and debt? ›

Debt: Shares represent ownership in a company, while bonds represent a debt obligation of the issuer. Derivatives derive their value from an underlying asset but do not represent ownership or debt.

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