To fully answer whether manual cars will be around in the future, we must start from the beginning. So, grab a coffee and enjoy the journey.
The story of manual transmission cars dates back to the dawn of the car era. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, these vehicles were the norm, as no other alternatives existed. Interestingly, the first cars had quite rudimentary manual systems, often featuring just two or three gears. Did you know that the iconic Ford Model T, introduced in 1908, was equipped with a two-speed planetary transmission? It was a ground-breaking innovation that made cars more accessible to the masses.
Fast forward to the 1930s, when General Motors introduced the first automatic transmission, known as the Hydra-Matic. It gained popularity in the US rapidly, after World War 2. As more drivers embraced the convenience and ease of use offered by automatic cars, their market share grew steadily. However, this alone wasn’t enough to knock manual cars of the top spot.
It wasn’t until Electric cars, which date back to the 19th century. And re-emerged in the late 20th and early 21st century that started to make a real change in the market space. The advances in battery tech and environmental concerns skyrocketed the popularity of electric cars. For example, the UK are one of the front runners in this space and plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.
According to a study by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), around 18% of new cars sold in the UK in 2020 were equipped with a manual gearbox. This is a significant drop compared to previous years. This decline is due to shifting consumer preferences, and the rise of electric vehicles, which are inherently automatic. However, there are still some die-hard enthusiasts who appreciate the engaging driving experience and control that a manual transmission provides. While the future of manual cars may be uncertain, they continue to hold a special place in the hearts of many motoring aficionados.
Before we move and dive deeper into the future of manual cars, I think it is worth our time to talk about just some of the benefits of driving the old-school way.
There's no denying that driving a manual car offers a unique and thrilling experience. Many car enthusiasts in the UK and beyond appreciate the sensation of shifting gears and the satisfaction of executing a smooth gear change. In fact, some drivers feel that an automatic transmission takes away the essence of driving, as they believe that mastering the art of operating a clutch and gear stick is a quintessential skill that connects them to their vehicle.
Manual cars also grant drivers more control over their car's performance, as they can choose the optimal gear for different driving conditions. For example, in times when you are stuck in heavy traffic and want the car to be more responsive and require more control. Then it would be preferred to have a manual car. Or when dealing with steep inclines. This variety of options would not be available with the automatic counterpart.
Some may also argue that manual cars are more cost-effective.
Fuel
Although modern automatic cars have come a long way in terms of fuel efficiency. Manual cars can still offer better fuel economy in some cases. Drivers have direct control over the engine's RPMs (revolutions per minute) when using a manual gearbox, allowing them to shift gears at the ideal moment to optimise fuel consumption.
Maintenance
Historically, manual transmission cars have been known for their lower purchase and maintenance costs compared to their automatic counterparts. While it's true that automatic transmissions have become more affordable in recent years, repairing a manual transmission is generally less expensive, as their simpler design contains fewer components that could potentially fail.
The simplicity of manual transmission systems. The inner workings of a manual gearbox are pretty straightforward, consisting of gears, shafts, and a clutch. This simplicity not only contributes to lower repair costs but also makes maintenance tasks, such as changing transmission fluid, more manageable for DIY car enthusiasts. In contrast, automatic transmissions feature a more complex system, including a torque converter and multiple planetary gear sets, which can make maintenance and repairs more challenging and costly.
As you can see there are still many benefits to having a manual car. Although, with that being said, they face an uphill battle in comparison to the advancements in other areas. As seen below.
The Decline of Manual cars
Automatic cars offer a more convenient and stress-free driving experience, particularly in congested urban areas, where constant gear shifting can be taxing. This shift towards automatic cars is apparent in the newer generations. For instance, in the UK new drivers are increasingly opting for automatic driving lessons and licenses.
As younger generations of drivers enter the market, there seems to be a generational shift in driving skills and interest. Many new drivers lack the desire to learn manual transmission driving, seeing it as an unnecessary and outdated skill. This is demonstrated in the growing number of automatic-only driving licences, which has resulted in the decline in demand for manual cars. This should come as no surprise given the fact that, whatever requires the least amount of effort for the same result, will generally be the preferred option.
Another contributing factor to the decline of manual cars is the technological advancements in automatic transmission.
Automatic transmission technology has come a long way since its inception, with modern systems offering improved fuel efficiency and performance. Continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) and dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) have closed the gap between automatic and manual cars in terms of fuel economy and responsiveness. As a result, many drivers who may have previously chosen manual cars for their performance benefits are now opting for advanced automatics instead.
Combining the above with the rapid growth of EV cars (electric cars) has played a huge role in the decline of manual cars. Electric cars are inherently automatic. As they use electric motors to provide torque directly to the wheels without the need for a gearbox. As countries like the UK promote EV adoption to combat climate change and reduce air pollution, the demand for manual cars will likely continue to dwindle.
Stricter emission standards and environmental regulations have had a profound impact on the automotive industry. Car companies are increasingly becoming aware of and developing fuel-efficient and low-emission alternatives. In order to comply with the new regulations. This has resulted in greater investments in advanced transmission technologies as well as electric hybrid powertrains. Consequently, manual transmission cars are being phased out in favour of more eco-friendly alternatives, further contributing to their decline.
Now that we have explored some of the benefits and challenges that lay ahead for manual cars. We can move on to a few possible scenarios which will answer our question of if we will still use manual cars in the future.
The Future of Manual Cars: Possible Scenarios
Complete extinction of manual cars
One possible scenario for the future of manual cars is their complete extinction. As technology continues to advance, automatic transmission systems and electric vehicles are likely to become even more efficient and affordable. This could further erode the market share of manual cars, rendering them obsolete as consumer preferences shift towards more advanced and user-friendly alternatives. The development and eventual widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles could also contribute to the demise of manual cars. As self-driving cars become mainstream, the need for manual driving skills may disappear altogether, with driving itself becoming a thing of the past. In this scenario, manual cars would likely become relics, relegated to museums and private collections.
Classic car enthusiasts and collectors
Another possible scenario is that manual cars will survive, but only as a niche market catering to classic car enthusiasts and collectors. The allure of driving a manual car, with its engaging and tactile experience, may continue to attract a dedicated following of drivers who appreciate the connection to automotive history. These enthusiasts could help sustain a small market for manual cars, ensuring their continued existence.
In terms of driving schools and motorsports events. Learning to drive a manual car remains a valuable skill. Driving schools may continue to offer manual driving lessons, while grassroots motorsports and amateur racing events could provide a platform for manual cars to shine.
Revival of manual transmission cars
In a more optimistic scenario, manual transmission cars could experience a revival, driven by a renewed interest in driver engagement and control. As autonomous and electric vehicles become more prevalent, some drivers may yearn for the visceral experience of driving a manual car, sparking a resurgence in their popularity. Manual cars could also benefit from technological innovations, which may help bridge the gap between manual and automatic transmission systems in terms of performance and efficiency. For example, lightweight materials and advanced engineering techniques could lead to the development of manual transmissions that offer improved fuel efficiency and better driving dynamics. In this scenario, manual cars would continue to evolve and adapt, maintaining their relevance in the ever-changing automotive landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the future of manual cars remains uncertain. From their humble beginnings in the early days of motoring to their current status as an increasingly rare breed, manual transmission vehicles have had a remarkable journey. We've explored the benefits of driving manual cars, such as greater driver engagement and control, as well as their decline in popularity due to shifting consumer preferences and technological advancements.
Predicting the exact fate of manual cars can be challenging. However, there are some clear indications that they face an uphill battle. The rise of electric and automatic cars, combined with changing regulations and consumer preferences. Makes you question whether manual transmission cars will continue to exist in the mainstream or be relegated to niche markets.
As aused car dealer, our job is to stay up to date with the ever-changing landscape.As we ponder the future of manual cars, we would love to hear your thoughts and experiences. Are you an avid manual car enthusiast, or have you embraced the convenience of automatic vehicles? Do you think manual cars will persist in some form or eventually disappear altogether? Your insights and personal stories will undoubtedly enrich this ongoing conversation, shedding light on the unique and captivating world of manual transmission vehicles.
