Why the US dollar could stay strong through 2024 (2024)

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The US dollar withstood resilient global growth to maintain its value in 2023 – and the story could be similar in 2024, according to Isabella Rosenberg of Goldman Sachs Research.

This is somewhat unusual. Typically in environments of strong growth, the dollar is expected to underperform the currencies of countries viewed as more risky. But the US economic story in 2023 has been one of outperformance, with the economy on track to grow at a 2.4% pace that well surpasses the 0.4% consensus growth estimates at the start of the year. Given this backdrop and the economic challenges in Europe and China, “it’s no surprise that the majority of cross-border fund flows has been directed into the US,” Rosenberg says.

Looking ahead to 2024, Goldman Sachs Research expects US growth of 2.1%, a forecast that’s double consensus expectations. This environment could foster continued interest in US assets among foreign investors.

“While it might be compelling to forecast dollar depreciation from the top down,” Rosenberg says, “US outperformance in 2024 means that the dollar should remain in high demand.”

Why the US dollar could stay strong through 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Why the US dollar could stay strong through 2024? ›

Chief among those reasons is the strength of the US economy. Despite high interest rates, the US economy is doing pretty well, supporting US stocks. And the rate cuts that we are likely to see within the next 12 months should not erode the yield on dollar bonds too far either.

What is the forecast for the U.S. dollar in 2024? ›

Highlights and Key Points: USD CAD Forecast 2024–2029

Many analysts project that the USDCAD's bullish rally, which started in December 2023, will continue in 2024. Most experts expect the asset price to remain between 1.4200 and 1.4420. A conservative forecast suggests moderate growth to 1.3900-1.3990.

Is the dollar weakening in 2024? ›

In 2024, the dollar has regained some ground, though it's somewhat lower now compared to earlier in the year. Changes in valuations between the two currencies have been less volatile recently than earlier in the past decade.

Why is the U.S. dollar getting so strong? ›

The dollar's value comes from the US' position as a critical global economic power and the country's political and economic stability. While it may hold less value than such currencies as the Swiss franc or the British pound, the dollar's global use makes it a more commercially viable currency.

Where is the American dollar worth the most in 2024? ›

Japan continues to be a popular choice, but Vietnam and South Korea stand as solid alternatives among numerous countries in Asia with favourable exchange rates for the US dollar. Closely following in value are South American countries: Argentina and Chile are among those offering the biggest luxury bang.

What is the prediction of the US economy in 2024? ›

On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in 2024 and 1.9 percent in 2025. These annual projections are 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous estimates of three months ago.

Who benefits from a weak dollar? ›

A weaker dollar, however, can be good for exporters, making their products relatively less expensive for buyers abroad. Investors can also try to profit from a falling dollar by owning foreign-currency ETFs or investing in U.S. exporting companies.

What is the US dollar backed by? ›

Prior to 1971, the US dollar was backed by gold. Today, the dollar is backed by 2 things: the government's ability to generate revenues (via debt or taxes), and its authority to compel economic participants to transact in dollars.

Why is the dollar so strong in 2024? ›

Despite uncertain macro conditions, the dollar has continued to demonstrate strength — largely thanks to sticky inflation, a resilient U.S. economy and year-to-date highs in yields. Indeed, in a display of U.S. exceptionalism, the greenback has gained against just about every other major currency in 2024.

What is the weakest currency in the world? ›

Today 1 Indian Rupee = 504.03 IRR.

Currently, the Iranian Rial is considered the world's least valuable currency. This is the result of factors like political unrest in the country. The Iran-Iraq war and the nuclear program also played a huge part.

What country is 1 USD worth the most? ›

What country is a dollar worth most? Some of the countries where a dollar is worth the most money include Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia. It's possible to exchange dollars for local currency in these countries at favorable exchange rates.

What year was the dollar strongest? ›

The DXY increased 0.0227 or 0.02% to 105.5444 on Monday June 17 from 105.5217 in the previous trading session. Historically, the United States Dollar reached an all time high of 164.72 in February of 1985. United States Dollar - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June 17 of 2024.

What is the exchange rate forecast for 2024? ›

EUR/USD is predicted to reach 1.05 in June 2024 and September 2024, 1.09 in December 2024 and 1.12 in March 2025. USD/JPY is expected to hit 155 in June 2024, 154 in September 2024, 153 in December 2024 and 152 in March 2025.

What is the future trend for the US Dollar? ›

USD to INR for the next 6 months

The USD to INR forecast for the next 6 months is that the USD to INR rate will increase by 0.63% and hit ₹ 84.06.

Will a dollar be worth more in the future? ›

Key Takeaways. The time value of money is a concept that states a dollar today is always worth more than a dollar tomorrow (or a year from now). One reason for this is the opportunity costs of holding cash instead of investing in higher-return projects. It also arises due to inflation.

What is the economic forecast for the dollar? ›

Overall, we expect the US economy to post real GDP growth of 2.4% this year, but for growth to slow to 1.1% in 2025. Between 2026 and 2028, economic growth is expected to pick back up, with annual gains in real GDP forecasted to range between 1.6% and 1.9% per year.

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