When Will We Run Out of Gold? - Hero Bullion (2024)

Posted - May 8, 2024

When Will We Run Out of Gold?

Scientists believe that the gold could become unsustainable to mine by as early as 2050. Evidence from a Scientific American study suggests the Earth may only have “about 20 years” worth of easily mined gold bullion remaining. Since the scarcity of gold is a major reason why it is so valuable, running out of gold would send the metal’s price into the stratosphere.

Here’s the upside: it’s unlikely that we will actually run out of gold anytime soon. While the global supply of mineable gold will decrease in the next few decades, the gold we already have is more than enough to sustain the international market. Gold is “recycled” by being melted down and transformed into new products. Therefore, gold coins and bars will be available long after mining operations become unsustainable.

Nevertheless, rumors of gold shortages have become a fixture of the precious metals market. Some dealers use high pressure sales tactics to sell gold, claiming that the metal won’t be available for long. On this page, we’re answering an extremely important question: when will we run out of gold – if we run out at all?

Will the Earth Run Out of Gold?

In a general sense, the Earth will one day run out of mineable gold. Gold is a finite resource. Finite resources can’t be created once they run out. When a finite resource is depleted, it is gone forever. Because gold is finite, it will necessarily run out one day. Scientists don’t quite agree on how long it will take for the Earth to run out of its gold supply, but most experts believe that we have 20-30 years of easily mineable gold remaining.

While gold will technically run out eventually, supplies won’t permanently decrease in the same way that commodities like oil will. When the global supply of oil runs out, it’s gone forever. Oil and gas are not transformed into other forms and traded – they’re used up and become useless. Gold is different. Because gold is constantly melted down and forged into new products, we won’t ever run out in the same way we’re set to run out of oil and other fossil fuels.

What do Gold Shortages Mean For Prices?

If gold supplies actually run out in the next two decades, prices for the precious metal would increase significantly. There is no consensus among economists about how high gold prices would go in the event of a global shortage. However, it is important to remember that mankind has mined a lot of gold. If global gold shortages became commonplace, it is likely that gold hoarders would begin selling their stockpiles.

Here’s the bottom line: if we run out of gold, prices will increase – but global stockpile liquidations might keep prices reasonable for a short period of time.

Exploring Gold’s Finite Supply

Like we mentioned earlier, gold is a finite resource. Like oil, we cannot make more gold if our global supply is depleted. Once gold can no longer be mined, we’re left only with what we already have. The good news, though, is that we have quite a bit of gold left to trade – even if supplies are depleted tomorrow.

Is Gold Really Finite?

Gold is technically finite in the sense that we can’t make more once we run out. Scientists draw a distinction between renewable and nonrenewable resources. Renewable resources include wind and water. It is not possible to use up our supply of water, which is why hydroelectric power is a renewable form of energy.

Like fossil fuels (including coal and oil), gold is a nonrenewable resource. We are not yet capable of producing gold in a lab, researchers are trying to develop a method of manufacturing realistic gold for commercial purposes. For now, gold is a finite resource – and there is no way to make more gold once we run out.

Gold’s Reusability Explained

Gold is finite – but in a different way than other commodities. Precious metals are always being melted down and shaped into different products. A gold bar today might become a gold coin tomorrow, and vice versa. Gold jewelry can be melted down into gold bars or traded as-is. Because gold is constantly changing form, it never truly disappears from the global economy.

To illustrate this point, consider coal and oil. Coal and oil are finite, nonrenewable resources. When we burn coal or oil for energy, it’s used up completely. Once the Earth runs out of these fossil fuels, we cannot make more – and we cannot repurpose the resources we’ve already used.

Gold is different because it can be reused and repurposed into other products. We might run out of mineable gold, but that doesn’t mean we’ll be completely deprived of gold coins and bars. In other words, gold is finite in quantity but reusable in function.

Scientific Evidence – Will We Run Out of Gold By 2050?

There is limited scientific evidence concerning when humanity will completely exhaust its supply of mineable gold bullion. One study from the Autonomous University of Barcelona finds that we may see a depletion of mineable gold by 2050. With very few supporting studies to back Barcelona’s findings, it’s tough to say with certainty that we will run out of gold by 2050. However, it is guaranteed that the finite supply of mineable gold will eventually be completely depleted.

Expert Opinions on Future Gold Supplies

Experts don’t quite agree on when humanity will run out of gold. The study from the University of Barcelona is often used to support the claim that gold shortages will happen by 2050, but we weren’t able to find any peer-reviewed research backing the original study. In practice, it would be very difficult to predict the lifespan of Earth’s mineable gold with any degree of certainty.

BBC reports that defining the supply of unmined gold on Earth is a “moving target.” The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there should be around 50,000 tons of minable gold beneath the Earth’s surface. However, it is impossible for scientists using current technology to reliably estimate the preponderance of hidden unmined gold caches.

New advances in technology, including AI and robotics, have allowed scientists to develop a clearer understanding of how much gold may really be left on Earth. While some studies claim that we will run out of gold by 2050, we might never know how much gold is really hiding inside the Earth’s crust.

Gold Mining Sustainability

One factor used to determine when we will run out of gold is the sustainability of mining operations. Although gold’s reusability will keep the gold industry thriving for generations to come, severe disruptions to sustainable mining operations could have a profound impact on the availability – and value – of gold bullion.

Factors That Influence Gold Mining Outputs

Gold mining sustainability is influenced by geopolitical conflict and sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and the finite supply of minable gold. Even if we don’t run out of gold in the next two decades, the gold mining industry faces several major challenges that might influence the yearly supply of freshly mined gold bullion.

Geopolitical Conflicts and Sanctions

Geopolitics play a major role in how gold prices are determined. Currently, the top three producers of mined gold in the world are China, Australia, and Russia. Together, these three gold mining countries produce 970 tonnes of gold bullion per year. The total world production of gold is only 3,100 years.

Mining disruptions in these three countries are probable – and extremely impactful to the global supply of gold. China and Russia are both countries involved in multiple proxy wars and, in Russia’s case, outright conflicts with other nations. While we haven’t yet seen a significant disruption to Russia’s gold mining output, such a development is far from impossible. Conflicts, and particularly sanctions from other powerful nations, could have a profoundly negative impact on the amount of gold produced annually.

Conflicts and sanctions are a major issue for gold production for a couple of reasons, including that these geopolitical developments can result in supply chain disruptions.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain disruptions could also lead to a global gold shortage. A supply chain refers to the process by which raw materials like mined gold are turned into usable commodities. When countries like Russia mine gold, the raw material passes through several countries and third party vendors before it becomes available to the public for purchase.

In some countries with a small annual output of gold, supply chain disruptions might not have a major impact on the global gold market. Remember, though, that the top three producers of gold makeup over 30% of the world’s global yearly production of gold bullion. If significant sanctions or supply chain disruptions debilitate China’s output of gold, it’ll be a big problem for the international gold market.

Finite Supply of Minable Gold

The finite supply of minable gold is the most important factor used to determine when we might run out of gold. Even if geopolitical conditions and supply chain efficiency allows gold producers to continue mining at maximum capacity, the Earth will eventually run out of gold. Like we mentioned earlier, scientists disagree on how long humanity has before it exhausts its available reserves of unmined gold.

But whether it happens tomorrow or in 200 years, we will eventually see the amount of unmined gold drop to zero. When this happens, expect gold prices to increase. Because so much of humanity’s gold has already been mined, it is unlikely that gold will ever cease to be a popular, tradable commodity.

Final Thoughts: When Will We Run Out of Gold?

Humanity will run out of unmined gold by as early as 2050, according to some scientific research. However, gold itself will never cease to be available for purchase. Since gold constantly changes form and existing gold is held in personal stashes and massive government reserves, you won’t have to worry about the gold market totally collapsing anytime soon.

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