When to buy an ETF for maximum return (2024)

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Topic: ETFs

January 26, 2024|by Pat McKeough

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When to buy an ETF for maximum return (2)

To determine when to buy ETFs, some investors use technical analysis and other tools. But you need to dig deeper.

Investors often wonder: what is a good entry point when purchasing a stock or an ETF?

The first question before asking when to buy an ETF, when to when to buy etfs, is whether an exchange traded fund investment is right for your portfolio. An ETF investment is one of the most popular and most benign investing innovations of our time. ETF investments are a little like conventional mutual funds, but with two key differences.

When to buy an ETF for maximum return (3)

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First, ETF investments trade on a stock exchange throughout the day, much like ordinary stocks. That immediately, help answer the question of when to buy ETFs. You can buy them through a broker whenever the stock market is open, and generally you pay the same commission rate that you pay to buy stocks. In contrast, you can only buy most conventional mutual funds at the end of the day. What’s more, commissions vary widely, depending on negotiations with your broker or fund dealer.

The second part of answering, when to buy ETFs involves the MER. The MER (Management Expense Ratio) is generally much lower on ETFs than on conventional mutual funds. That’s because most ETFs take a much simpler approach to investing. Instead of actively managing clients’ investments, traditional ETF providers invest so as to mirror the holdings and performance of a particular stock-market index.

Traditional ETFs practice this “passive” fund management, in contrast to the “active” management that conventional mutual funds provide at much higher costs. Traditional ETFs stick with this passive management—they follow the lead of the sponsor of the index (for example, Standard & Poors). Sponsors of stock indexes do from time to time change the stocks that make up the index, but generally only when the market weighting of stocks change. They don’t attempt to pick and choose which stocks they think have the best prospects.

This traditional, passive style also keeps turnover very low, and that in turn keeps trading costs for your ETF investment down. It also supports our guidance that trying to time the market to determine when to buy ETFs is an unnecessary and fruitless exercise. Learning how to know when to buy an etf is a valuable skill for investors.

When to buy ETFs

Some investors decide when to buy an ETF with the help of technical analysis. Knowing how to know when to buy an etf using technical analysis can be useful.

Technical analysis is a useful tool, in deciding when to buy ETFs, but only if you recognize it as one of many tools. Before making any recommendations or transactions in client accounts, I always look at a chart. However, I don’t look at the chart for a prediction of what’s going to happen. I look to see if the pattern on the chart seems to support the view I’ve formed of the stock based on its finances and other fundamental factors.

I find it encouraging if the two seem congruent, and they usually do. But sometimes one contradicts the other, and that’s when I know I have to dig deeper, and perhaps wait until the situation clarifies itself.

After all, there’s a large random element in all stock price changes, even for ETFs, especially in the short term. When you focus on timing buy and sell decisions to improve your investment results, you are trying to come up with a system that can outguess a random factor. But a random factor is something you can’t outguess.

You can, however, offset the random factor indirectly, by taking advantage of our three-part Successful Investor approach. You can enhance our approach with a simple-but-not-easy tactic: Get used to the idea that when you decide to include a new investment in your portfolio, you should buy while there’s still some doubt in your mind.

If you wait to buy an ETF until you are sure it will pay off for you, you’ll probably pay a higher price. You are better off to buy sooner—when you are “pretty sure,” rather than “certain.” Learning how to know when to buy an etf at the right time is key.

By the time you’re sure an ETF is a good buy, many other investors may have come to share that opinion. This is another way of saying that investor expectations have risen. That usually means the stock has used up some of its immediate potential for gain.

By buying sooner, you of course increase the risk of a short-term loss on any one investment. But our three-part Successful Investor approach automatically offsets a lot of your overall risk. Developing a sense for how to know when to buy an etf can help manage risk as well.

What to buy is as important as when to buy ETFs

We think you should stick with “traditional” ETFs. However, when an investment product faces booming demand as ETFs do today, investment companies try to expand sales by creating new versions of the underlying formula.

These new ETFs use a conventional stock-market index as a base, but add their own refinements. These refinements are tailored to current investor preferences or prejudices. That’s distinctly different from the traditional ETF, which simply aims to mimic an index. These newer, theme varieties may attract attention—and sales—but they frequently carry higher MERs.

In some cases, the new ETF may provide investment benefits but not consistently. In fact, it may hurt results in the long run. The worst cases are bad enough to turn investor profits into losses. One sure result is that the higher MERs will cut into the value of your ETF portfolio every year.

Another drawback to the new ETF is how much easier it is for investors to act on an urge to invest in a specific stock or stock group without doing any messy and time-consuming research. If you want to invest in oil stocks or gold stocks or Swedish stocks or wind power stocks, or any of hundreds of other stock groups, you can act on that urge. However, that may not produce the best results.

Below is a list of 6 things you should consider before buying an ETF investment or deciding when to buy ETFs:

  1. ETFs can be volatile, even with the diversification they offer.
  2. Know how broad the fund is, so you can determine its volatility. The broader the ETF, the less volatility it may have. A sector-based ETF like one that tracks resource stocks may be more volatile.
  3. Know the economic stability of countries when investing in international ETFs. It’s also good to mention that foreign leaders may not be your ally when it comes to passing legislation that can affect your investments
  4. Know the liquidity of ETFs you invest in.
  5. Determine if the ETFs you buy will include capital gains distributions.
  6. Consider buying ETFs in a lump sum rather than periodic small amounts to cut down on brokerage fees.

It’s impossible to time the market, or eliminate all risk. But you have a variety of risk-cutting techniques to choose from, and some work better than others.

In summary, investing in ETFs can be a smart choice for many investors, but it’s important to understand the key factors to consider when deciding how to know when to buy an etf. Unlike conventional mutual funds, ETFs trade on stock exchanges throughout the day and generally have lower management expense ratios (MERs). Traditional ETFs practice passive fund management, mirroring the holdings and performance of a stock-market index. While technical analysis can be a useful tool in deciding when to buy ETFs, it should be combined with fundamental analysis. Investors should be cautious of newer, theme-based ETFs that may have higher MERs and increased volatility. Before investing in ETFs, consider factors such as the fund’s breadth, the economic stability of countries for international ETFs, liquidity, capital gains distributions, and brokerage fees. While it’s impossible to completely eliminate risk or perfectly time the market, understanding how to know when to buy an etf and utilizing a diversified investment approach can help manage risk and optimize returns.

How do you know when to buy an ETF? What signals do you look for? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

This article was initially published in March 2016 and is updated regularly.

Comments

  • Bill

    This latest catastrophic drop in the stock markets of the world highlights the most glaring weakness of ETFs especially passive ETFs. The ETFs remain fully invested in the stoks they hold and so garner ALL of the down side . Mutual funds are mostly actively managed and so (as so many have ) sell many of the fund`s holdings and have large percentages of cash in their holdings which is thus able to be employed at market lows. The advocators of ETFs never tell you this fact so please use your brains when listening to advice which seems so one-sided !!

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    • TSI Research

      Thanks for your comment. Many ETFs are passively managed –passive fund management for ETFs involves investing to mirror the holdings and performance of a specific stock-market index. However, many are also actively managed (like the mutual funds you mention, although there are also a lot of index-linked mutual funds out there as well.)

      Log in to Reply
      • Bill

        Therefore one must know how to distinguish between which ETFs are passive and which are actively managed. Thus I have now given you at TSI another topic to explain how we investors can recognize that distinction easily.

        Log in to Reply
        • Scott

          Thanks for your reply! It’s a topic we cover in our Best ETFs for Canadian Investors newsletter. — TSI Research

          Log in to Reply

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When to buy an ETF for maximum return (2024)

FAQs

What is the 30 day rule on ETFs? ›

A wash sale occurs when an investor sells an asset for a loss but repurchases it within 30 days. The wash-sale rule applies to stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, options and futures but not yet to cryptocurrency.

What is the best time to buy an ETF? ›

Generally speaking, the best time to trade ETFs is closer to the middle of the trading day rather than the beginning or end.

Which ETF gives the highest return? ›

100 Highest 5 Year ETF Returns
SymbolName5-Year Return
FNGOMicroSectors FANG+ Index 2X Leveraged ETNs44.18%
TECLDirexion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares34.02%
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF31.57%
ROMProShares Ultra Technology28.62%
93 more rows

Is it good to buy ETF during recession? ›

Key Takeaways. Investors can use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to diversify their portfolios. Sectors that weather an economic downturn include healthcare, information technology, consumer staples, and utilities. An ETF is passively managed and includes a basket of stocks.

How long should you hold your ETF? ›

Holding an ETF for longer than a year may get you a more favorable capital gains tax rate when you sell your investment.

What is the 3 5 10 rule for ETF? ›

Specifically, a fund is prohibited from: acquiring more than 3% of a registered investment company's shares (the “3% Limit”); investing more than 5% of its assets in a single registered investment company (the “5% Limit”); or. investing more than 10% of its assets in registered investment companies (the “10% Limit”).

What is the 70 30 rule ETF? ›

ETFs based on global stock indexes can be used to create a 70/30 portfolio. These ETFs are broadly diversified and aim to replicate the global stock market. According to the 70/30 rule, you would use an ETF to invest 70 percent of your capital in developed countries, and 30 percent in emerging markets.

Should I buy ETF when market is down? ›

Long-term investors: As per Jain, before buying or selling an ETF, you should compare the i-NAV with the market NAV price of the ETF. While buying the ETF check if the market price is lower or close to the I-NAV price and while selling check if the price is higher or close to the i-NAV price.

What is the downside to an ETF? ›

ETFs are designed to track the market, not to beat it

But many ETFs track a benchmarking index, which means the fund often won't outperform the underlying assets in the index. Investors who are looking to beat the market (potentially a riskier approach) may choose to look at other products and services.

What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.

What is the number 1 ETF to buy? ›

Top U.S. market-cap index ETFs
Fund (ticker)YTD performance5-year performance
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)11.1 percent15.5 percent
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)11.0 percent15.4 percent
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)10.3 percent15.3 percent
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)11.6 percent21.8 percent

What ETF has 12% yield? ›

In fact, an ETF called the Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (NASDAQ:QYLD), launched in 2013, currently boasts an eye-catching yield of 12%. While the ETF holds appeal for income investors, there are also several things that investors should be aware of before jumping in right after seeing that eye-popping yield.

How many ETFs should I have in my portfolio? ›

Experts agree that for most personal investors, a portfolio comprising 5 to 10 ETFs is perfect in terms of diversification.

Are ETFs safe if the stock market crashes? ›

OCTT has a 10% buffer against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which means if the S&P 500 falls 10% or less, the ETF should experience no loss. If the S&P 500 falls by more than 10%, the ETF should decline by only the amount above the 10% buffer.

What not to invest in before a recession? ›

Avoiding highly indebted companies, high-yield bonds and speculative investments will be important during a recession to ensure your portfolio is not exposed to unnecessary risk. Instead, it's better to focus on high-quality government securities, investment-grade bonds and companies with sound balance sheets.

Where is the safest place to put your money during a recession? ›

Cash equivalents include short-term, highly liquid assets with minimal risk, such as Treasury bills, money market funds and certificates of deposit. Money market funds and high-yield savings are also places to salt away cash in a downturn.

What is the 4% rule for ETF? ›

It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement. In subsequent years, you adjust the dollar amount you withdraw to account for inflation.

What is the tax loophole of an ETF? ›

Thanks to the tax treatment of in-kind redemptions, ETFs typically record no gains at all. That means the tax hit from winning stock bets is postponed until the investor sells the ETF, a perk holders of mutual funds, hedge funds and individual brokerage accounts don't typically enjoy.

Can you live off ETF? ›

While it is possible to live off ETF dividends, you'll need to do some careful planning to make it happen. You'll need to balance how much income your investments bring in and how much you spend.

How does ETF 30 day yield work? ›

The 30-day yield is calculated by taking the fund's interest and/or dividend earnings for the most recent month and dividing by the average number of shares outstanding for the month times the highest share offer price on the last day of the month.

How long do you have to wait to sell an ETF? ›

There are no restrictions on how often you can buy and sell stocks, or ETFs. You can invest as little as $1 with fractional shares, there is no minimum investment and you can execute trades throughout the day, rather than waiting for the NAV to be calculated at the end of the trading day.

Can I sell ETF next day? ›

Since ETFs are traded on the stock exchange, they can be bought and sold at any time during market hours like a stock. This is known as 'real time pricing'. In contrast, mutual funds can be bought and redeemed only at the relevant NAV; the NAV is declared only once at the end of the day.

How do you avoid a wash sale on an ETF? ›

For example, let's say you took a loss on an ETF tracking the S&P 500® index (SPX). To avoid a wash sale, you could replace it with a different ETF (or several different ETFs) with similar but not identical assets, such as one tracking the Russell 1000 Index® (RUI).

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Name: Lilliana Bartoletti

Birthday: 1999-11-18

Address: 58866 Tricia Spurs, North Melvinberg, HI 91346-3774

Phone: +50616620367928

Job: Real-Estate Liaison

Hobby: Graffiti, Astronomy, Handball, Magic, Origami, Fashion, Foreign language learning

Introduction: My name is Lilliana Bartoletti, I am a adventurous, pleasant, shiny, beautiful, handsome, zealous, tasty person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.