What Is the Monday Effect? | The Motley Fool (2024)

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What Is the Monday Effect? | The Motley Fool? ›

The Monday Effect is a theory in finance that the prevailing trends in the stock market on Friday will continue into Monday. In very simple terms, if the market is up at close on Friday, it'll continue to go up at the open on Monday, and vice versa. Some day traders rely on this theory to make trading decisions.

It states that you can comfortably withdraw 4% of your savings in your first year of retirement and adjust that amount for inflation for every subsequent year without risking running out of money for at least 30 years.

Stock prices fall on Mondays, following a rise on the previous trading day (usually Friday). This timing translates to a recurrent low or negative average return from Friday to Monday in the stock market.

The term Monday effect refers to a financial theory that suggests that stock market returns will follow the prevailing trends from the previous Friday when it opens the following Monday.

Let's say that you start with the time frame in mind, hoping an investment will double in value over the next 10 years. Applying the Rule of 72, you simply divide 72 by 10. This says the investment will need to go up 7.2% annually to double in 10 years. You could also start with your expected rate of return in mind.

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The Rule of 90 is a grim statistic that serves as a sobering reminder of the difficulty of trading. According to this rule, 90% of novice traders will experience significant losses within their first 90 days of trading, ultimately wiping out 90% of their initial capital.

The 11 a.m. trading rule is a general guideline used by traders based on historical observations throughout trading history. It stipulates that if there has not been a trend reversal by 11 a.m. EST, the chance that an important reversal will occur becomes smaller during the rest of the trading day.

Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.

A 1973 study of market activity, The Behavior of Stock Prices on Fridays and Mondays, suggested that stock prices are least likely to rise on Mondays and most likely to rise on Fridays. Therefore, one could infer, Mondays may offer better buying opportunities when prices are lower.

Are mondays usually bullish or bearish? ›

Anecdotally, traders say the stock market has had a tendency to drop on Mondays. Some people think this is because a significant amount of bad news is often released over the weekend.

Timing the stock market is difficult, but understanding when to trade stocks can help your portfolio. The best time of day to buy stocks is usually in the morning, shortly after the market opens. Mondays and Fridays tend to be good days to trade stocks, while the middle of the week is less volatile.

However, some traders and investors believe that markets tend to trend downward on Mondays. This can mean much lower returns on Monday than there were to be had on Friday, making Monday traditionally known as a good day of the week to snaffle up potentially undervalued stocks and indices.

The formula for the rule of 72

This being a formula, it works in the opposite direction, too: You can figure the compound rate of return required to double your money in a certain time frame. For instance, to double your money in 10 years, the compound rate of return would have to be 7.2%.

The classic approach to doubling your money is investing in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, which is likely the best option for most investors. Investing to double your money can be done safely over several years, but there's a greater risk of losing most or all your money when you're impatient.

How the Rule of 72 Works. For example, the Rule of 72 states that $1 invested at an annual fixed interest rate of 10% would take 7.2 years ((72 ÷ 10) = 7.2) to grow to $2. In reality, a 10% investment will take 7.3 years to double (1.10^7.3 = 2). The Rule of 72 is reasonably accurate for low rates of return.

The 4% rule says people should withdraw 4% of their retirement funds in the first year after retiring and take that dollar amount, adjusted for inflation, every year after. The rule seeks to establish a steady and safe income stream that will meet a retiree's current and future financial needs.

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement.

The 4% rule was based on a portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds. Most financial professional today will suggest that you diversify your portfolio more than this. It's likely that your actual retirement savings will differ, and they may include cash, precious metals, investment properties, and more.

If retirees don't need their portfolio for essential expenses—covered by things like Social Security, a pension, or annuity—they can withdraw more. Retirees in a more comfortable position should be able withdraw 5.5% in the first year, he estimates, and then withdraw at a higher rate in subsequent years.