What a 613-Indicator-Based Risk/Reward Tool Says About Stocks in May (2024)

The Risk/Reward Heat Map (RRHM) is a complex tool I created to identify whether risk or reward will dominate in any of the upcoming 12 months. I made the Risk/Reward Heat Map available to subscribers of the Profit Radar Report in December 2019. Methodology for the Riks/Reward Heat Map is explained here.

As of right now, the Risk/Reward Heat Map is the compound message of 613 individual studies, indicators and signals.

Barron's rates iSPYETF as "trader with a good track record" and Investor's Business Daily says: "When Simon says, the market listens." Find out why Barron's and IBD endorse Simon Maierhofer's Profit Radar Report

Turning individual studies into a forward-looking Risk/Reward Heat Map is a 2-step process:

1) Develop each individual study. Here is how it’s done:

- Identify a unique market development. Example: Last Friday, the S&P 500 and 32% of its component stocks closed at a 52-week (or all-time) high.

- Identify past precedents that meet the same (or similar) criteria. Example: Since 2000, the S&P 500 and >31% of its component stocks closed at 52-week high 7 other times (total of 8 signal dates). The orange line in the chart below highlight all the signal dates.

What a 613-Indicator-Based Risk/Reward Tool Says About Stocks in May (1)

2)Turn individual study into a forward-looking component of the Risk/Reward Heat Map. Here is how it’s done:

- Calculate the S&P 500 returns and odds of positive returns for 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12 months after past precedents (signal dates). Example: After the above-mentioned signal dates, the S&P 500 was down 1 month later 6 times (86%) with an average loss of 2.2% (using only 1st signal in 30 days). 12 month later, the S&P 500 was up 5 times (71%) with an average gain of 10.5%.

- When the odds of positive returns are 80% or higher for a certain month, it is counted as bullish study for that month (+1 is added for that month).

- When the odds of positive returns are 50% or lower for a certain month, it is counted as bearish study for that month (-1 is added for that month). Example: The above study is bearish for June.

The proof is in the pudding

Shown below is one of many bullish studies published in April 2020 (others are available for review here). Explanatory annotations are made in yellow.

The unique development at the time was that the S&P 500 delivered two 90% up volume days (when 90% of volume flowing into advancing stocks) in a 3-day period.

2 out of 3 90% up days happened 7 other times in the past. The colored graphs show returns after the 7 prior signal dates.

What a 613-Indicator-Based Risk/Reward Tool Says About Stocks in May (2)

The performance tracker (table at bottom of chart) shows that returns for the next 3, 6, 9, 12 month were wildly bullish with 83% - 100% odds of positive returns. +1 (bullish odds) were added for the months of July 2020, October 2020, January 2021, April 2021.

Repeating the above process of identifying a unique event and its precedents and then cataloguing forward returns 613 times results in the up-to-date Risk/Reward Heat Map.

Does the Risk/Reward Heat Map work?

The chart below plots the S&P 500 against net signals (bullish - bearish) since inception, which allows us to visually assess if the Risk/Reward Heat Map works.

What a 613-Indicator-Based Risk/Reward Tool Says About Stocks in May (3)

The outright bearish implications for January/February/March 2020 (red columns) were echoed by the stock market during the February/March 2020 meltdown.

Starting in March 2020, the vast majority of studies implied significant future reward with little risk (green columns).

Throughout 2020 and 2021 there were only a few periods of weakness, and all of them occurred when the number of bullish studies was less than 20 (orange bars).

Sell in May and go away?

For May, the Risk/Reward Heat Map is in caution mode, and the May 3 Profit Radar Report warned that: "May continues to be a pressure point, resistance in terms of time."

The Risk/Reward Heat Map is unique because it's actually a predictive forward looking tool. To filter out false signal, I use real time data to validate the Heat Map's message. Right now, it will take a good close below 4,090 to unlock a deeper pullback.

The Risk/Reward Heat Map is constantly updated and shows riks/reward for each of the next 12 months. The Risk/Reward Heat Map is available to subscribers oftheProfit Radar Report.

Simon Maierhofer is the founder of iSPYETF and the publisher of the Profit Radar Report. Barron's rated iSPYETF as a "trader with a good track record" (click here forBarron's evaluation of the Profit Radar Report).The Profit Radar Report presents complex market analysis (S&P 500, Dow Jones, gold, silver, euro and bonds) in an easy format. Technical analysis, sentiment indicators, seasonal patterns and common sense are all wrapped up into two or more easy-to-read weekly updates.

Follow Simon on Twitter@iSPYETFor sign up for theFREE iSPYETF e-Newsletterto get actionable ETF trade ideas delivered for free.

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What a 613-Indicator-Based Risk/Reward Tool Says About Stocks in May (2024)

FAQs

What is a good risk-reward ratio for stocks? ›

In many cases, market strategists find the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments to be approximately 1:3, or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk. Investors can manage risk/reward more directly through the use of stop-loss orders and derivatives such as put options.

What are the risks rewards for investing in stocks? ›

Key Takeaways

Investing in stocks offers many rewards, like capital gains, dividends, retirement planning, and financial freedom. A few common risks of investing in individual stocks include lost funds, not outpacing inflation, failing to meet your financial goals, and expensive fees.

What is the stock's reward to risk ratio? ›

Here's how to calculate a risk-reward ratio: Divide the amount you could profit (that's the reward) by the amount you stand to lose (that's the risk). So if you bought a stock for $100 and plan to sell it when it hits $200, the net profit would be $100.

What is the formula for the risk-reward ratio? ›

Risk/reward ratio = total profit target ÷ maximum risk price

Using a stop-loss order​​ when opening a position will close you out of your position at a certain point. This ensures that you do not exceed your maximum loss level.

What is a good risk score for stocks? ›

The RG of a low-risk asset is expected to be zero to 100. Normal stocks/indexes should have an RG of 100 to 300. Stocks with an RG of 100 to 800 are considered high risk. IPOs have an RG greater than 800.

What is a good risk-reward ratio for swing trading? ›

A successful swing trader should always have a favorable risk-reward ratio. This means that the potential reward should outweigh the risk in every trade. Typically, a risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 is recommended.

What does the rule of 72 tell you? ›

It's an easy way to calculate just how long it's going to take for your money to double. Just take the number 72 and divide it by the interest rate you hope to earn. That number gives you the approximate number of years it will take for your investment to double.

What is a high risk high reward stock? ›

What is a high-risk, high-return investment? High-risk investments may offer the chance of higher returns than other investments might produce, but they put your money at higher risk. This means that if things go well, high-risk investments can produce high returns.

What is the riskiest type of investment? ›

The riskiest investments are often speculative in nature. While there are investment opportunities in each asset class that could result in you losing some or all of your money, cryptocurrency is often considered to be among the riskiest types of investments.

Is 1:1 risk-reward ratio good? ›

First of all, it is not advisable to trade at all with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. Just because of simple maths, let me give you an example. If your trade success rate is 50% your profit will be zero. In fact, you might be in minus because you will pay the commissions to the trades as well from your profits.

What is the risk reward ratio and win rate? ›

Risk/reward is a ratio of the size of winning trades compared to losing trades. If lose $100 on a losing trade but make $200 on a winning trade your risk/reward is 100/200=0.5. You can also think of it as reward/risk = 200/100 = 2. Meaning your win is twice as big as your loss.

What is the win rate for professional traders? ›

Many traders with high win rates are not profitable. Many studies have shown that many of the worlds most successful traders have win rates of between 40% and 50%. Win rates must always be reviewed at the same time as the risk reward (the SIZE of winners compared to the size of losing trades).

What is the best risk reward ratio for scalping? ›

The best risk reward ratio for scalping favors quicker, smaller gains; thus, a lower ratio such as 1:1 or 2:1 can be more suitable due to the high frequency of trades.

How to read risk reward ratio in TradingView? ›

This tool measures how much reward you are estimated to gain based off of the dollar amount you risk. For example, if you have a risk to reward ratio of 1:3, it means for every $1 you risk, you will gain a return of $3 in the event of a positive trade.

What does 1R mean in trading? ›

1R is how much we want to risk on a trade; put another way, how much we are willing to lose on trade. For me, 1R is 1% of my trading account balance, for example. That said, we don't need to use this position size on all trades. We may end up with Fractional Rs (discussed below).

Is a 1.5 risk-reward ratio good? ›

A commonly cited benchmark in trading is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio. This ratio suggests that for every unit of risk taken (usually measured as a percentage or dollar amount), an investor should aim for a potential reward that is one and a half times greater.

What is 2.5 risk to reward ratio? ›

Risk-Reward Ratios

If your average gain (after deducting brokerage) on winning trades is $1000 and you have consistently risked $400 per trade (as in the earlier 2 percent rule example), then your risk-reward ratio would be 2.5 to 1 (i.e. $1000 / $400).

What is a 1 7 risk to reward ratio? ›

For instance, an investment with a risk-reward ratio of 1:7 means the investor is prepared to risk $1 for the chance to gain $7, whereas a ratio of 1:3 indicates the willingness to risk $1 for a potential $3 gain. This metric is particularly important for traders in deciding which trades to pursue.

Is 1/2 rr profitable? ›

The traders should not have a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio, as it indicates the potential loss over the investment will be much higher than any predictable profit. A reasonable risk-to-reward ratio is 1:2, which indicates the profit or reward is higher than the loss.

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