WASHINGTON, Oct. 12, 2023 – Corn and soybean production is down from September 2023, according to the Crop Production report issued today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the previous forecast but up 10% from last year; soybean growers are expected to decrease their production 4% from 2022, forecast at 4.10 billion bushels.
Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, corn yields are expected to average 173.0 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast and down 0.4 bushel from 2022. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast.
Also based on conditions as of Oct. 1, soybean yields are expected to average 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but unchanged from 2022. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 82.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 4% from 2022.
Today’s report also included a production forecast for U.S. cotton. All cotton production is forecast at 12.8 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 767 pounds per harvested acre, down 19 pounds from the previous forecast and down 183 pounds from 2022. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 11% from 2022. Pima cotton production is forecast at 356,000 bales, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 24% from 2022. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 8.02 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 10% from 2022.
Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 5 to gather information on expected yield as of Oct. 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing states that usually account for about 75% of U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts.
The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal enumeration. Approximately 7,800 producers were contacted during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.
The Crop Production report is published monthly and is available online at nass.usda.gov/Publications.
Have a question about the monthly Crop Production report? Join @usda_nass on X today at 1 p.m. EDT. Use #StatChat to discuss the report live with NASS Crops Branch Chief Lance Honig. The next Stat Chat will be Nov. 9 at 1 p.m. EDT to discuss NASS’s November Crop Production report.l
FAQs
Since 1970, U.S. corn and soybean yields have doubled, but damaging effects of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have slowed yield gains and interrupted decades of rapidly rising agricultural productivity.
What is the USDA forecast for soybeans? ›
Soybean yields are expected to average a record high 53.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio will be record highs. All wheat production is forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, up 9% from 2023.
What is the outlook for corn and soybean prices? ›
Current markets are pointing to corn prices averaging near $4.00 per bushel and soybeans prices averaging near $10.50 per bushel over the next several years. Overall, the higher prices from 2021 through 2023 appear transitory, and prices are now moving to lower levels (see farmdoc daily, July 9, 2024).
What is the condition of the US soybean crop? ›
The U.S. soybean yield forecast remains at a record-high 53.2 bushels per acre. Summer weather in the Midwest region was generally beneficial to soybeans, with a lack of extreme temperatures during the pod development stages in August.
What is causing the corn shortage? ›
At the heart of the corn crisis is an influx of corn imports from the United States at artificially low prices.
Why are corn and soybean prices so low? ›
In mid-July, the price of soybean futures contracts dipped below $11 per bushel for the first time since November 2020, as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and other major analysts reported more favourable than expected supply conditions for the global market, as well as weak export demand.
Why are soybeans dropping? ›
“The year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in soybean prices can be attributed to the anticipated large total South American crop this season. This is largely due to the initial estimate for huge crops in Brazil for the 2023/24 season, coupled with ample carry-in from the previous season,” she told FoodNavigator.
What is the outlook on soybeans? ›
The 2024/25 U.S. soybean outlook includes higher supplies, use, and ending stocks, and lower prices compared to the prior year. Soybean supplies are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, 8 percent above 2023/24 with increased beginning stocks and production.
What is the outlook for the soybean industry? ›
The global soybean market size was estimated at USD 193.10 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2030. Soybeans are known for their health benefits, including being a good source of protein, fiber, vitamins, and minerals.
Could corn and soybean returns be much lower than expected in 2024? ›
Current levels of futures contracts suggest that appropriate budgeting prices for 2024 crops production are $4.00 per bushel for corn and $10.50 per bushel for soybeans. Those prices would result in low returns in 2024, far lower than the last low-price period from 2014 to 2019.
Sell Soybeans Now
Soybean futures are incentivizing selling soybeans now rather than sometime in 2024. Selling soybeans “off the combine” is a consensus plan among market advisers, but only if growers are willing to maintain pricing flexibility.
Is there any hope for the corn market? ›
Futures markets suggest a 2025 price of $11.00 per bushel. The highs in 2022 led to hopes that corn and soybeans had reached new higher levels. Current prices and projections suggest that those hopes are in the process of being dashed.
What is the USDA projection for soybeans? ›
The USDA's soybean output estimate for 2024/25 surpasses the record 4.46 billion bu production from 2021. The harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up by 1 million acres from July's estimate of 85.3 million acres.
What 3 states produce the most soybeans? ›
More than 80 percent of soybeans are cultivated in the upper Midwest. The Unites States counted Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota as their leading soybean producing states as of 2022.
Who buys the most US soybeans? ›
Many nations worldwide depend on U.S. Soy and make up the soy checkoff's global markets. The top 10 export markets for U.S. soybeans in order of volume received in marketing year 2021/22 include China, Mexico, the European Union, Egypt, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam.
Why is corn falling? ›
The problem often becomes evident when corn is subjected to strong winds, which results in plants falling over because there is a limited number or no nodal roots supporting them. The force of winds can also break off nodal roots and inhibit the establishment of a permanent root system.
What are the factors affecting corn production? ›
Factors that significantly affect corn production are the area of cultivated land, the amount of Urea fertilizer use, the number of NPK fertilizer use, the number of manure uses, and the number of rental laborers.
Why is corn not growing? ›
The most common reasons for slow or lackluster growth include poor light levels (all types of corn need plenty of direct sunshine), not enough moisture, or a lack of nutrients.
What factors reduce corn yield? ›
Extreme environmental conditions and the crop management adjustments they force upon farmers are the two biggest causes for corn yield loss.
