Understanding Your Bond Fund’s Duration (2024)

Understanding Your Bond Fund’s Duration (1)

For most of the past 30 years bonds and bond mutual funds have had the proverbial wind in their sails. Interest rates have steadily headed downwards. Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship.

Last week, however, the Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%). They also indicated that they would continue to raise rates this year as, in their view, our economy has reached a new phase. This is part of an overall tightening of the money supply to keep the economy from overheating, including an effort to keep inflation in check.

Many investors may be wondering what this means for their bond mutual funds ETFs. A key number that all holders ofbond fundsand ETFs must know and understand is the fund’s duration.

What is duration?

Bond mutual funds and ETFs are a portfolio of individual bonds.

According to Morningstar,“Duration is a time measure of a bond’s interest-rate sensitivity, based on the weighted average of the time periods over which a bond’s cash flows accrue to the bondholder.”A bond’s cash flows include the value received at maturity, generally $1,000 per bond, and the periodic interest payments received by the holder of the bond.A bond’s duration is expressed in years and is generally shorter than its maturity.

All things being equal, a bond with a longer time to maturity will have a higher duration meaning its price is more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Likewise, the higher the bond’s coupon rate (the stated interest rate paid by the bond) the lower the bond’s duration. Bonds with a shorter time to maturity and a higher coupon rate will have a lower duration and their price will be less sensitive to changes in interest rates.

The duration of a bond fund or ETF can be found on the fund’s fact sheet usually posted on the fund company’s site, or the portfolio tab on the fund’s listing on Morningstar.com.

What does bond fund duration tell us?

The largest bond fund, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (tickerVBMFX), has an effective duration of 6.05 years according to Morningstar.This tells us that if interest rates rise by 1% the value of the underlying bonds held by the fund would likely decline by around 6.05%. Note this number is an approximation and bond prices are impacted by factors other than changes in interest rates. This fund roughly tracks the aggregate U.S. bond market.

By comparison Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade (tickerVWESX) has longer duration of 13.31 years and would see a greater impact from rising interest rates.

The Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index ETF (tickerBSV) has a duration of 2.76 years.

The actively managed Double Line Total Return Bond Fund I (ticker DBLTX), managed by Jeffrey Gundlach who many call the “bond king,” has a duration of 3.98 years.

What impact will rising interest rates have on my bond mutual fund or ETF?

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What should I do now?

As mentioned above, duration is a good indicator of the potential impact of a change in interest rates upon the value of yourbond fund, but other factors also come into play.In 2008, many bond funds saw outsized losses and investors moved their money into Treasuries as a safe haven during the financial meltdown.

Many high-quality bond funds suffered major losses that year based only upon this flight to quality by investors.

Longer term the total return of a bond fund or ETF is driven by income payments as well as the direction of interest rates. Lower coupon bonds will be replaced by bonds with higher coupon rates over time.

Bonds are traded on the secondary market and prices are a function of supply and demand much like with stocks.

Bond mutual funds and ETFs offer the advantage of a managed portfolio. On the flip side unlike an individual bond, bondmutual fundsand ETFs never mature.

Is it time to get out of bond funds? The point of this article is not to advocate that you do anything differently, but rather that you understand the potential duration risk in anybond mutual fundsor ETFs that you currently hold or may be considering for purchase.

Bond funds and ETFs still have a place indiversified portfolios, but for many investors the characteristics of the fixed income portion of their portfolios may need an adjustment.This might mean shortening up on bond fund duration and looking at other, non-core types of bond funds.

The landscape of the financial markets is continually evolving and interest rates are a part of this evolution.As investors we need to understand the potential implications on our portfolios and adjust as needed.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if you are invested properly for your situation? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service.

Pleasecontact mewith any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here atThe Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, pleasesubscribe via email.Please check out theHire Metab to learn more about my freelance financial writing and financial consulting services.

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Understanding Your Bond Fund’s Duration (2024)

FAQs

Understanding Your Bond Fund’s Duration? ›

The duration of a bond is affected by its coupon rate, yield, and remaining time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon. Duration will be higher the lower its yield. Duration will also be higher the longer its maturity.

How to interpret the duration of a bond? ›

How Duration Works in Investing. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a bond or other debt instrument to a change in interest rates. In general, the higher the duration, the more a bond's price will drop as interest rates rise. This also indicates a higher level of interest rate risk.

What is the effective duration of a bond fund? ›

Effective duration calculates the expected price decline of a bond when interest rates rise by 1%. The value of the effective duration will always be lower than the maturity of the bond.

What is the difference between average maturity and duration of a bond fund? ›

Maturity is the time remaining until the bond's principal is repaid. A bond with a 10-year maturity will return the principal to the investor in 10 years. Meanwhile, duration measures a bond's sensitivity to interest rate changes, and reflects the weighted average time it takes to receive all cash flows from the bond.

What is the duration of a 10 year bond? ›

In the limit, if the bond paid no coupon, its maturity would be equal to its duration, or ten years. That depends on the coupon rate, the remaining time to maturity and the discount rate. For a zero coupon bond the duration of a newly issued 10 year bond is 10 years.

What is duration bond for dummies? ›

What is a bond's duration? Duration is a measurement of a bond's interest rate risk that considers a bond's maturity, yield, coupon and call features. These many factors are calculated into one number that measures how sensitive a bond's value may be to interest rate changes.

Is higher or lower bond duration better? ›

Generally, the higher a bond's duration, the more its value will fall as interest rates rise, because when rates go up, bond values fall and vice versa.

What is a good return for a bond fund? ›

The bond market is a wide field, with many different categories of assets. In general, you can expect a return of between 4% and 5% if you invest in this market, but it will range based on what you purchase and how long you hold those assets.

How to use duration? ›

The duration formula is a measure of a bond's sensitivity to changes in the interest rate, and it is calculated by dividing the sum product of discounted future cash inflow of the bond and a corresponding number of years by a sum of the discounted future cash inflow.

How do you make money with a bond fund? ›

Bond funds allow you to buy or sell your fund shares each day. In addition, bond funds allow you to automatically reinvest income dividends and to make additional investments at any time. Most bond funds pay regular monthly income, although the amount may vary with market conditions.

Can bond duration be longer than maturity? ›

In Bonds with a negative yield the duration should be longer than the maturity. Duration is the length of time for the return of the fund.

Are short duration bonds better? ›

Short-term bonds generally carry less uncertainty because the principal is repaid more quickly and can be reinvested earlier. However, duration is more than just term to maturity. Maturity is simply the number of years left until the bond's principal is repaid.

Are longer maturity bonds riskier? ›

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall (and vice-versa), with long-maturity bonds most sensitive to rate changes. This is because longer-term bonds have a greater duration than short-term bonds that are closer to maturity and have fewer coupon payments remaining.

How to interpret duration? ›

The term duration is mathematically defined as the sum of the weighted average time of each of the cash flows that make up a bond. In other words, “pure” duration (denoted in years) is how long it will take for an investor to receive the bond's present value based on the expected future cash flows of the bonds.

Should I sell bonds when interest rates rise? ›

If you sell your bonds as soon as someone hints at the word "hike," you may be jumping the gun. When the market consensus is that a rate increase is right around the corner, it's time to sell and reinvest the proceeds in higher-paying bonds. One caveat applies to short-term holdings or those that are near maturity.

What is the 10 year rule for bonds? ›

Taken together, these provisions allow issuers to make new loans from repayments for 10 years from the date of issuance of the original bond and thereafter, require that repayments of principal be used to redeem bonds. This is commonly referred to as the "10 year rule".

What does a bond duration of 5 mean? ›

The longer a fund's average effective duration, the more sensitive the fund is to shifts in interest rates. In other words, if rates move up by 1 percentage point, the price of a bond with a duration of 5.0 years will move down by 5%, while a bond with a duration of 10.0 years will move down by about 10%.

How do you read bond length? ›

Generally, the length of the bond between two atoms is approximately the sum of the covalent radii of the two atoms. Bond length is reported in picometers. Therefore, bond length increases in the following order: triple bond < double bond < single bond.

How to interpret Macaulay duration? ›

Macaulay duration measures the weighted average of the time to receive the cash flows from a bond so that the present value of cash flows equals the bond price. A bond's Macaulay duration is positively related to the time to maturity and inversely related to the bond's coupon rate and interest rate.

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