[Submitted on 24 Jan 2022]
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Abstract:Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.
Submission history
From: Bent Flyvbjerg [view email]
[v1] Mon, 24 Jan 2022 18:33:21 UTC (344 KB)
FAQs
Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment.
What are the major behavioural biases? ›
Information-processing biases include anchoring and adjustment, mental accounting, framing, and availability. Emotional biases include loss aversion, overconfidence, self-control, status quo, endowment, and regret aversion.
What are the 8 cognitive biases you may encounter in your professional life? ›
Cognitive biases in the workplace
- Confirmation bias. Confirmation bias refers to the tendency to search for, favor, and focus on information that confirms one's preconceptions. ...
- Dunning-Kruger effect. ...
- Sunk cost fallacy. ...
- Optimism bias. ...
- Bandwagon effect. ...
- Planning fallacy. ...
- Anchoring bias. ...
- Self-serving bias.
What is cognitive bias in project management? ›
Published Jul 11, 2023. Cognitive Bias is a systematic error in thinking that often is a result of holding onto one's preferences or beliefs regardless of contrary information. Some of these biases are related to memory, attention, emotions, motivations or other mental mistakes.
What is strategic misrepresentation? ›
Strategic misrepresentation refers to the act of deliberately providing false or misleading information in order to influence a group decision. This can take many forms, from outright lies to subtle manipulations of data. One of the key dangers of strategic misrepresentation is that it can lead to poor decision making.
What are the ten common decision-making biases? ›
Explore this list of biases in decision making so you can better understand any you may have:
- Self-serving bias. ...
- Authority bias. ...
- Confirmation bias. ...
- Framing bias. ...
- Overconfidence bias. ...
- Anchoring bias. ...
- Availability bias. ...
- Conformity bias.
What are the 8 forms of bias? ›
8 types of biases
- Confirmation bias. This is the tendency people feel to seek out information that supports something they already believe. ...
- The Dunning-Kruger effect. ...
- Availability bias. ...
- Hindsight bias. ...
- Observer bias. ...
- Selection bias. ...
- Cultural bias. ...
- Decline bias.
What are the 7 forms of bias? ›
- Seven Forms of Bias.
- Invisibility:
- Stereotyping:
- Imbalance and Selectivity:
- Unreality:
- Fragmentation and Isolation:
- Linguistic Bias:
- Cosmetic Bias:
What are four examples of bias behavior? ›
Here, we describe these four behavioral biases and provide some practical advice for how to avoid making these mistakes.
- Overconfidence. ...
- Regret. ...
- Limited Attention Span. ...
- Chasing Trends.
What are 2 common behavioral biases that affect investors? ›
Behavioral Biases and Their Impact on Investment Decisions
- Overconfidence Bias. Overconfidence is an emotional bias. ...
- Self-attribution Bias. ...
- Active Trading. ...
- Fear of Loss. ...
- Disposition Effect. ...
- Framing. ...
- Mental Accounting. ...
- Familiarity Bias.
Common decision-making biases are overconfidence bias, anchoring bias, hindsight bias, confirmation bias, and availability bias. Overconfidence bias is the excessive belief in one's abilities. Anchoring bias relies heavily on one piece of information, while hindsight bias refers to one's interpretation of past events.
What are the common biases at the workplace? ›
10 Common Types of Workplace Bias
- #1: Confirmation Bias. ...
- #2: Authority Bias. ...
- #3: Conformity Bias. ...
- #4: Ability Bias. ...
- #5: Halo and Horns Effect. ...
- #6: Age Bias. ...
- #7: Ethnic & Racial Bias. ...
- #8: Gender Bias.
What are 5 cognitive biases that influence our decision-making? ›
5 Biases That Impact Decision-Making
- Similarity Bias. Similarity bias means that we often prefer things that are like us over things that are different than us. ...
- Expedience Bias. ...
- Experience Bias. ...
- Distance Bias. ...
- Safety Bias.
What are the 10 behavioral biases? ›
Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment.
What is task bias in project management? ›
At its core, it's a cognitive bias that means we, as humans, can create an overly optimistic perspective about how long a task or project will take because there is a tendency toward focusing on the best-case scenario without factoring in time for errors or obstacles we don't expect.
What is observer bias in project management? ›
Observer bias occurs when a researcher's expectations, opinions, or prejudices influence what they perceive or record in a study. It usually affects studies when observers are aware of the research aims or hypotheses. This type of research bias is also called detection bias or ascertainment bias.
What is the most serious type of misrepresentation? ›
Fraudulent misrepresentation is very serious. Fraudulent misrepresentation occurs when a party to a contract knowingly makes an untrue statement of fact which induces the other party to enter that contract.
What is deliberate misrepresentation? ›
A statement made by the defendant, with the intent to deceive, that is known to be false or made recklessly and without regard to whether it is true or not.
What is the difference between misrepresentation and misleading? ›
A misrepresentation is a false or misleading statement or a material omission which renders other statements misleading, with intent to deceive. Misrepresentation is one the elements of common law fraud, and other causes of action for fraud, such as securities fraud.
What are the 6 main types of biases in design? ›
- Confirmation Bias. This bias occurs when you start looking for evidence to prove a hypothesis you have. ...
- False consensus bias. The false consensus bias is the assumption that others will think the same way as you do. ...
- Recency bias. ...
- Primacy bias. ...
- Implicit bias. ...
- Sunk cost fallacy.
Three types of bias can be distinguished: information bias, selection bias, and confounding. These three types of bias and their potential solutions are discussed using various examples.
What is a bias checklist? ›
This bias checklist is a tool available for faculty members to review curriculum materials. You can use it when developing or reviewing content for medical or health professions students and trainees. It is intended to be self-explanatory and suitable for self-assessment.
What are the three common biases? ›
Confirmation bias, sampling bias, and brilliance bias are three examples that can affect our ability to critically engage with information. Jono Hey of Sketchplanations walks us through these cognitive bias examples, to help us better understand how they influence our day-to-day lives.