The world is moving away from fossil fuels, while in Australia, it’s all systems go for coal and gas | Bill Hare (2024)

The International Energy Agency has produced a groundbreaking report on how the world can meet the Paris agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting warming to 1.5C. In particular, it shows, from the IEA perspective, how the energy system can reach net zero by 2050.

It has two really important top line messages.

First, the path to get to net zero emissions by 2050 and to limit warming to 1.5C remains open, but, as we all know, the window is closing on this open unless action is rapidly ramped up.

Second, to get there, all new fossil fuel investments and infrastructure – oil, coal and gas – need to stop. Not next year, not in 2030, but today: 2021. And what is key here is that this statement doesn’t come from some activist organisation, but from the world’s leading – and very conservative – energy advisor.

To those of us in the scientific and energy policy community working on these issues – and indeed to others paying attention – none of these conclusions should be surprising, or shocking.

What is really shocking is the reaction of the Morrison government, a government that appears to be betting the farm, the economy and Australia’s international standing in a wider sense – betting that the world will just walk away from the Paris agreement and of the increasing global momentum towards limiting emissions to net zero by 2050.

On the very day the IEA report was released, the federal government announced it is about to pour $600m into a new gas-fired plant in Kurri Kurri in the Hunter Valley. Aside from the climate change implications, all advice given to the government, from its scientific advisor to the Australian Energy Market Operator, admitted new gas plants would be more expensive.

Globally, it is well understood that renewable energy and storage is far less expensive than coal and gas, not least because its fuel (sun, wind, waves, water) is free, and in Australia this is truer than most other places. The government argues that the Kurri Kurri plant will reduce costs for consumers, whereas most energy analysts argue the opposite.

The world is moving away from fossil fuels, as can be evidenced from almost daily announcements from the investment community as bank after bank announces new policies to divest from these climate changing fuels.

The Asia Development Bank’s announcement that it will no longer fund coal in the region is the most recent. We also have the European Investment Bank, which announced some time ago it will not fund coal projects and it is also abandoning gas. These public, government-backed banks moving away from fossil fuels also undermine investments from private institutions, which rely on the big public banks to back their investments.

Along with the banks, we’re also seeing insurance companies and superannuation investment funds divesting from fossil fuels. In 2019 the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), announced it would no longer fund oil and gas, having already ditched coal.

Globally, there is a big move towards countries setting zero goals and upgrading their 2030 targets, the major focus of international efforts this year ahead of the Glasgow Climate Summit in November. The Morrison government has shown little or no signs of joining this effort in any serious way.

This is not an academic, political parlour game with no consequence. About three quarters of Australia’s markets for LNG and coal are now aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, or the latest before 2060. And each of these is taking steps to lower their emissions by 2030 which will have rapid effects on the market for coal and also for LNG.

It cannot be assumed by the industry or the government that the transition from thermal coal will be to LNG. For other markets governments are moving to replace coal or gas with green hydrogen or other carbon free alternatives.

Meanwhile, in Australia, it’s all systems go for coal – and for gas, again, out of step with the rest of the world. The government seems determined to consign the country into being an international pariah, along with having to bear the brunt of increasingly damaging climate impacts, such as the potential loss of the Great Barrier Reef, bushfires and floods.

As the US and EU get on with green recovery, Australia has missed a huge opportunity | Bill HareRead more

So, why is the Australian government refusing to react to the clear messages from a scientific and international energy agency and many others? Why does an Australian prime minister make spurious claim after spurious claim, whether it is Australia meeting and beating its targets (it’s not) or Australia being a world leader (the opposite is true), that building a 600 megawatt gas power station at Kurri Kurri will lower energy prices (most analysts say it won’t and renewables are cheaper). Why is the Australia government willing to bet the farm and the country that the world will not implement the Paris agreement?

The common denominator in all this appears to be the disproportionate influence of the fossil fuel industry and its associates on government over a sustained period of time. It’s not just the federal government – one can look for example at the West Australian government and its obsession with gas. In a larger sense it’s about the influence that the fossil fuel industry, supported by the Murdoch media and its climate denialism, has had on politics in Australia, on both major parties.

The Morrison government is emerging as an extreme ideological representative of the fossil fuel industry and seems wilfully willing to set aside the longer term interests of Australia in favour of protecting the short term concerns of this industry. Malcolm Turnbull has colourfully described this as “ideology and idiocy”, and it surely is, but with a qualification on the idiocy side because the Morrison government is clearly effective in transferring large volumes of taxpayers money to support the fossil fuel industry and carbon intensive activities in general, at the expense of the clean energy transition that we all need and will benefit from.

The world is moving away from fossil fuels, while in Australia, it’s all systems go for coal and gas | Bill Hare (2024)

FAQs

Is Australia moving away from fossil fuels? ›

Australia has announced it will ramp up its extraction and use of gas until "2050 and beyond", despite global calls to phase out fossil fuels. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government says the move is needed to shore up domestic energy supply while supporting a transition to net zero.

Is the world moving away from fossil fuels? ›

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Nearly 200 countries agreed Wednesday to move away from planet-warming fossil fuels — the first time they've made that crucial pledge in decades of U.N. climate talks though many warned the deal still had significant shortcomings.

What happens when Earth runs out of fossil fuels? ›

A study published in 2015 in Science Advances states that if we burn all of the remaining fossil fuels on Earth, almost all of the ice in Antarctica will melt, and this would potentially cause sea levels to rise by 200 feet. If and when that happens, most major cities would be submerged underwater.

What will happen when all the fuel finishes? ›

Key Takeaways. Running out of fossil fuels would lead to a shutdown of coal- and oil-fueled power plants as well as a dramatic increase in energy costs, prompting a potential shift toward nuclear energy as a more viable, though costly, alternative.

Where does Australia source its fuel from? ›

Australia is a net importer of oil and imports a large proportion of its refinery feedstocks. Most of Australia's oil is produced on the North West Shelf, some distance from domestic east coast refining capacity.

What country stopped using fossil fuels? ›

Spain. A decade after environmentalists first called for it, Spain approved a climate law in May 2021 that will put an end to the production of fossil fuels across all of its territories by 2042.

How many years until we run out of fossil fuels? ›

So, if we continue at our current rate, it is estimated that all of our fossil fuels will be depleted by 2060. If we keep on mining the earth in such a damaging way, we might find new reserves that will push that date back.

What would happen if all fossil fuels disappeared? ›

If fossil fuel production were stopped tomorrow, the world would quickly grind to a halt. Even in areas where a large portion of electricity is run on renewables, fossil fuels are often used to provide “firm” power that can come on at any time of the day or night.

What will happen if we stop using fossil fuels? ›

As carbon sinks, our lands and oceans would absorb some of the CO2 in the atmosphere, thus reducing atmospheric temperatures over time. However, the CO2 left un-absorbed by the sinks would linger in the atmosphere for around 300-1000 years.

Can we survive without fossil fuels? ›

Critical infrastructure like electricity, internet, and trade systems would collapse without fossil fuel support. Agriculture and home heating would become inefficient and inaccessible to many, leading to widespread social upheaval.

Will we run out of coal? ›

It is predicted that we will run out of fossil fuels in this century. Oil can last up to 50 years, natural gas up to 53 years, and coal up to 114 years. Yet, renewable energy is not popular enough, so emptying our reserves can speed up.

How many years of oil is left in the world? ›

For decades, industry experts have said there are around 50 years of oil left, based on known reserves. Related: How do we turn oil into plastic?

Can we live without oil? ›

Converting to living without oil for maintaining basic everyday life would require at least 10-20 years, Johansen estimates. He notes that even the scenarios related to the 1.5°C goal from the UN's intergovernmental panel on climate change assume substantial oil and gas consumption up to and beyond 2050.

What happens if we burn all fossil fuels? ›

Burning all of Earth's fossil fuels would cement humanity's role as a major shaper of the planet. Scientists now report that if we do just that, temperatures would rise to the point that the Antarctic ice sheet, which has been frozen for 15 million years(Opens in new window), would entirely melt.

What will happen when all the oil runs out? ›

Oil will be replaced by alternative energy resources, such as solar energy, wind energy, tidal energy and nuclear and hydroelectric plants. Biofuels will also become a staple in the automobile industry.

Why is Australia moving away from coal? ›

Australia's main grid has historically been based on connecting cheap but polluting coal plants to large cities. As coal plants retire, we need a different grid, drawing renewable power from many different locations, while utilising storage.

Is Australia moving to renewable energy? ›

Australian governments are working together to transform our energy systems to deliver cheap, clean, and reliable energy. The Australian Government is targeting 82% renewable energy in our electricity grids by 2030.

Is Australia going carbon neutral? ›

The Australian government released its Long Term Emissions Reduction Plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Why is Australia a big polluter? ›

Energy production is the largest contributor to Australia's carbon emissions. This is followed by transport, agriculture, and industrial processes. Specifically: energy (burning fossil fuels to produce electricity) contributed 32.6 per cent of the total emissions.

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