Paper deep dive “Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure”
Published in · 12 min read · Dec 22, 2023
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Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.
— Thomas Alva Edison (1872–1946), and he isn’t the first to say so
The quote above was actually first spoken by a writer, Kate Sanborn. Also, Edison’s attribution to ‘inspiration’ varied: sometimes 2%, sometimes disregarded altogether: ‘Genius doesn’t come from inspiration; inspiration comes from hard work!’, essentially zero percent.
So it is not new that ‘genius’ doesn’t equate to ‘success.’ Especially now we have an experimental proof from the 2022 ‘32nd First Annual’ Ig Nobel Prize in Economics tells us that ‘success is 1% genius and 99% luck’.
This seemingly whimsical paper, titled “Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure”, was awarded the Ig Nobel Prize in Economics. It offered startling conclusions that have far-reaching implications for our understanding of success.
Published by a team of researchers from the University of Catania in Italy with a mix of physics and economic disciplines. The study’s method leans heavily on physics-like simulations to study economic phenomena.
