The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin (2024)

In November 1, 2008, a man named Satoshi Nakamoto posted a research paper to an obscure cryptography listserv describing his design for a new digital currency that he called bitcoin. None of the list's veterans had heard of him, and what little information could be gleaned was murky and contradictory. In an online profile, he said he lived in Japan. His email address was from a free German service. Google searches for his name turned up no relevant information; it was clearly a pseudonym. But while Nakamoto himself may have been a puzzle, his creation cracked a problem that had stumped cryptographers for decades. The idea of digital money—convenient and untraceable, liberated from the oversight of governments and banks—had been a hot topic since the birth of the Internet. Cypherpunks, the 1990s movement of libertarian cryptographers, dedicated themselves to the project. Yet every effort to create virtual cash had foundered. Ecash, an anonymous system launched in the early 1990s by cryptographer David Chaum, failed in part because it depended on the existing infrastructures of government and credit card companies. Other proposals followed—bit gold, RPOW, b-money—but none got off the ground.

One of the core challenges of designing a digital currency involves something called the double-spending problem. If a digital dollar is just information, free from the corporeal strictures of paper and metal, what's to prevent people from copying and pasting it as easily as a chunk of text, "spending" it as many times as they want? The conventional answer involved using a central clearinghouse to keep a real-time ledger of all transactions—ensuring that, if someone spends his last digital dollar, he can't then spend it again. The ledger prevents fraud, but it also requires a trusted third party to administer it.

The Rise and Fall of Bitcoinby Benjamin Wallace (41.9 MB .mp3)

Bitcoin did away with the third party by publicly distributing the ledger, what Nakamoto called the "block chain." Users willing to devote CPU power to running a special piece of software would be called miners and would form a network to maintain the block chain collectively. In the process, they would also generate new currency. Transactions would be broadcast to the network, and computers running the software would compete to solve irreversible cryptographic puzzles that contain data from several transactions. The first miner to solve each puzzle would be awarded 50 new bitcoins, and the associated block of transactions would be added to the chain. The difficulty of each puzzle would increase as the number of miners increased, which would keep production to one block of transactions roughly every 10 minutes. In addition, the size of each block bounty would halve every 210,000 blocks—first from 50 bitcoins to 25, then from 25 to 12.5, and so on. Around the year 2140, the currency would reach its preordained limit of 21 million bitcoins.

When Nakamoto's paper came out in 2008, trust in the ability of governments and banks to manage the economy and the money supply was at its nadir. The US government was throwing dollars at Wall Street and the Detroit car companies. The Federal Reserve was introducing "quantitative easing," essentially printing money in order to stimulate the economy. The price of gold was rising. Bitcoin required no faith in the politicians or financiers who had wrecked the economy—just in Nakamoto's elegant algorithms. Not only did bitcoin's public ledger seem to protect against fraud, but the predetermined release of the digital currency kept the bitcoin money supply growing at a predictable rate, immune to printing-press-happy central bankers and Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation.

Bitcoin's chief proselytizer, Bruce Wagner, at one of the few New York City restaurants that accept the currency.
Photo: Michael Schmelling


Nakamoto himself mined the first 50 bitcoins—which came to be called the genesis block—on January 3, 2009. For a year or so, his creation remained the province of a tiny group of early adopters. But slowly, word of bitcoin spread beyond the insular world of cryptography. It has won accolades from some of digital currency's greatest minds. Wei Dai, inventor of b-money, calls it "very significant"; Nick Szabo, who created bit gold, hails bitcoin as "a great contribution to the world"; and Hal Finney, the eminent cryptographer behind RPOW, says it's "potentially world-changing." The Electronic Frontier Foundation, an advocate for digital privacy, eventually started accepting donations in the alternative currency.

The small band of early bitcoiners all shared the communitarian spirit of an open source software project. Gavin Andresen, a coder in New England, bought 10,000 bitcoins for $50 and created a site called the Bitcoin Faucet, where he gave them away for the hell of it. Laszlo Hanyecz, a Florida programmer, conducted what bitcoiners think of as the first real-world bitcoin transaction, paying 10,000 bitcoins to get two pizzas delivered from Papa John's. (He sent the bitcoins to a volunteer in England, who then called in a credit card order transatlantically.) A farmer in Massachusetts named David Forster began accepting bitcoins as payment for alpaca socks.

When they weren't busy mining, the faithful tried to solve the mystery of the man they called simply Satoshi. On a bitcoin IRC channel, someone noted portentously that in Japanese Satoshi means "wise." Someone else wondered whether the name might be a sly portmanteau of four tech companies: SAmsung, TOSHIba, NAKAmichi, and MOTOrola. It seemed doubtful that Nakamoto was even Japanese. His English had the flawless, idiomatic ring of a native speaker.

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The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin (2024)

FAQs

What will $100 of Bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›

If this pattern continues into 2030, the price could peak around 2029 or 2030, potentially aligning with Wood's price prediction. If Wood is correct and Bitcoin reaches $3.8 million, a $100 investment in Bitcoin today would be worth $5,510 in 2030. This translates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 95%.

What causes the rise and fall of Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin's price changes because of its supply, the market's demand, media and news, and regulatory changes. Some research suggests that the cost of producing a bitcoin also influences its prices, but most reports used assumed data rather than facts.

How do you predict the rise and fall of Bitcoin? ›

Predicting cryptocurrency price movements is challenging and involves a degree of risk. However, here are some factors to consider when assessing potential for growth: market trends, fundamental analysis, market sentiment, regulatory developments, development activity, adoption and partnerships.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2025$ 67,697.84
2026$ 71,082.73
2027$ 74,636.86
2030$ 86,401.50
1 more row

Should I hold or sell Bitcoin? ›

Historically, long-term Bitcoin investors have been rewarded for their patience, riding out significant price fluctuations to see considerable profits. If you originally invested because you believed in Bitcoin's long-term value, then selling during a downturn may contradict your original investment strategy.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 5 years? ›

We predict that Bitcoin will hold an average price of $60,000 in 2024, thanks to the Halving event, and settle more in 2025 with an average of $65,000. In 2026, we see Bitcoin trading as high as $90,000 by the end of the year. By 2030, we predict that Bitcoin could reach a high of $160,000.

Can Bitcoin go to zero? ›

A reasonable assumption that Bitcoin could hypothetically reach the null state of it's value is worth the thought. Even-though such an event is very less likely to take place, there are some factors that could theoretically lead to Bitcoin price crashing to zero.

Which coin will reach $1 in 2024? ›

Conclusion. In the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency, these ten coins, including TRON, Shiba Inu, Astar, Kaspa, Dogecoin, Stellar, Kava, Polygon, Cronos, and VeChain, present diverse potentials for reaching the $1 milestone in 2024. Investors keen on penny cryptos have a spectrum of options to explore.

Who owns the most Bitcoin? ›

So, who are the top holders of BTC? According to the Bitcoin research and analysis firm River Intelligence, Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator behind Bitcoin, is listed as the top BTC holder as of 2024. The company notes that Satoshi Nakamoto holds about 1.1m BTC tokens in about 22,000 different addresses.

Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoin is more stable than it's been in years, and the next halving is fast approaching. Taking current market conditions into account, now might well be the perfect time to invest, so long as you remain cognizant of the risks.

Is it safe to invest in Bitcoin today? ›

Due to the potential for losses, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) considers this investment to be high risk.

How high will Bitcoin go in 2024? ›

Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 12.68% and reach $74,649 by August 02, 2024.

Is Bitcoin going to go back up? ›

“Based on the current market trend, it is possible that bitcoin may reach up to $100,000 by the end of 2024 and could potentially surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025,” Collins said. Unfortunately, he said it's unlikely bitcoin's momentum in 2023 and 2024 will continue indefinitely.

Which coin is best to buy now? ›

Bitcoin is the best crypto to invest in today, combining unmatched security, global recognition, and long-term value. Here, we analyze the best cryptocurrencies to buy in August 2024, and share our methodology and criteria for rating crypto projects.

Is crypto a good investment? ›

Most financial experts recommend limiting crypto exposure to less than 5% of your total portfolio. Crypto is considered a high-risk asset class. Limiting allocation helps manage overall volatility and risk. Those new to crypto investing may start with 1% to 2% as an introduction.

What will $1000 of Bitcoin be worth in 2030 USD today? ›

By getting investors excited about the future of Bitcoin, she could attract more inflows to her ETF. If Wood is correct and Bitcoin does reach $3.8 million by 2030, an investment of $1,000 would be worth over $60,000.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2050? ›

Our digital assets research team outlines their assumptions for a scenario in which bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050, driven by its adoption as a global medium of exchange and a reserve asset.

How much will 1 Bitcoin be worth in 2040? ›

Bitcoin Overview
YearMinimum PriceAverage Price
2031$1,077,841.21$1,109,283.06
2032$1,556,210.36$1,611,674.82
2033$2,330,561.92$2,411,145.86
2040$3,255,046.46$3,568,496.11
8 more rows

What can Bitcoin be worth in 10 years? ›

However, some experts have offered bold projections. Cathie Wood, the founder, chief executive officer, and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, believes that Bitcoin could be worth $1 million per coin before 2030, as adoption by institutional investors increases.

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