When it comes to investing, some countries are better -- and safer -- than others. Last weekend, New Jersey based research firm Bretton Woods put out their ranking of top countries for investors to either go digging for stocks or buy the corresponding exchange traded fund that tracks an index.
"We see economic conditions improving for Europe," says research leader Vladimir Signorelli of Bretton Woods. "Four of our top 10 stock markets are in Western Europe where fiscal policy is improving, like tax rates getting reduced."
Within emerging markets, China is a favorite. "We're bullish on China and still love India even though it is unclear whether the new corporate tax rate means less taxes for big business or more," he says. India's Finance Ministry reduced the corporate tax rate in India on Saturday. The cuts go into effect next year.
So where are the best countries to invest for the next three months? Here's BWR's top 10 from its list of 46 countries. The ranking were published on Feb. 28 for clients. Buy recommendations and explanations are not necessarily from Bretton Woods. The company uses supply side economic theories to help decipher market strength.
10. Philippines
Buy:iShares MSCI Philippines (EPHE)
Why:The Philippine central bank has kept the benchmark rate at 4% since September on the back of oil’s precipitous decline since June. Central bank governor Amando Tetangco said this month deflationary risks are minimal, but that benchmark rate could be held at 4% for much of 2015. Inflationary pressures appear non-threatening.
Rearview: MSCI Philippines up 21.42% over last 12 months..
9. Hungary
Buy: Hungary 2017s*
Why: Short-dated Hungarian debt priced in pounds yielding 4.4% with a GBP1,000 initial investment. Priced near par. The central bank of Hungary is dovish and trying to
be growth supportive. The benchmark rate is currently 2.1%, where it has been since July. Annualized core inflation is nonthreatening and declined -0.9% as of December. There are no pure-play equity funds for Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is mostly pro-growth when it comes to fiscal policy. In the third quarter of this year, the Orban government plans to unveil plans to reduce Hungarian banking taxes more in line with E.U. norms.
Rearview: Bond spreads are wide, which means little volume. Yield in asking price for Hungary 17s is just 1.9%. The bond has moved just around 5 basis points over the last 52-weeks, an indicator of stability.
8. U.S.A.
Buy: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Why: Positive developments with Ukraine and Greece will help preserve dollar strength. U.S. equities should rally during the next three-to-six months.
Rearview: S&P 500 up 12.9% over last 12 months.
7. Japan
Buy: iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ)
Why: Fiscal policy is improving. The government reduced the corporate tax rate to 32.11% this April and announced it will fall to 31.33% in 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to lower the corporate tax rate below 30%, while reformists in his cabinet would like to bring the corporate tax rate down to 20% longer-term.
Rearview: Nikkei 25 up 26.35% in 12 months.
6. China
Buy: iShares FTSE China (FXI)
Why: The People’s Bank of China is in easing mode. The 12-month lending rate was reduced this week after being reduced in November. Last month, the central bank cut the reserve ratio requirement 50 basis points, to 19.5%. It was the first RRR cut since July 2012. China authorities have targeted growth of 7% this year and most believe they'll get there, as usual.
Rearview: MSCI China up 13% in 12 months.
5. Germany
Buy: iShares MSCI Germany (EWG)
Why: The European Central Bank's QE policies will support German equity prices similar to how the Fed’s QE policies helped support the S&P 500 in nominal terms. No major fiscal policy
changes are expected in Germany.
Rearview: DAX up 18.7% in 12 months.
4. Ireland
Buy: iShares MSCI Ireland (EIRL)
Why: "Ireland is home to one of our favorite stock markets, and it should outperform in any European recovery scenario," BWR researchers wrote. Fiscal policy is improving. The government resorted to the unpopular use of water charges in 2014 as a means of raising tax revenue. But by exiting the bailout agreement in 2013, Ireland is arguably in a stronger position to avoid the pressure to implement seriously anti-growth measures, such as raising individual
tax rates as well as the country's very low 12.5% corporate tax rate. This year, the top marginal rate on personal income was reduced to 40% from 41%. The Universal Social Charge was
increased to 8% from 7%, but the threshold was raised considerably.
Rearview: MSCI Ireland is down 7.23% in 12 months.
3. Denmark
Buy: iShares MSCI Denmark (EDEN)
Why: Bonds are negative yield except for their 2015 Rule 144A bonds, which are for qualified institutional investors only. So EDEN is the only way in, despite terrible volume. Deterioration of fiscal policy is unlikely. The corporate tax rate was reduced to 23.5% this
year and is slated to be reduced to 22% in 2016. The top marginal rate on personal income was reduced to 52% from 56%. The currency is tightly pegged to the euro. If euro's fortunes change, the Danish Krone will follow suit, probably outperform.
Rearview: Krore is down 19.6% against the dollar and slightly higher than the euro. EDEN off by 0.73% in last 12.
2. Spain
Buy: iShares MSCI Spain (EWP)
Why: Spain is poised to outperform in any Eurozone recovery scenario. Fiscal policy has improved, though it has taken a very long time under Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The corporate tax rate was reduced to 28% from 30% this year. The top marginal tax rate on income was reduced to 47% from 56%. That rate is expected to fall to 45% in 2016. Meanwhile, the tax on the savings rate is expected to drop to 23% in 2016, from 24% in 2015 and 24.75% in 2014. More money for the locals means more money for shareholders, consumers.
Rearview: Dow Jones Spain Index up 11.67%. Wish I could say the same about EWP: down 13.4% in 12. The FTSE Europe Index is down 7.9%.
1. Portugal
Buy: Global X FTSE Portugal (PGAL)
Why: With its banking issues from the summer of 2014 largely contained and fiscal policy improving, Portugal will lead the pack in any Eurozone recovery scenario. In terms of fiscal policy, Portugal is mostly improving. The top corporate tax rate was reduced to 21% this year from 23%.
Rearview: PGAL down 34% in 12 months.
*Not mentioned in BWR report.
It's not an exact science. Markets are fickle. The Ukraine crisis and oil quickly changed the picture for investors late last year.
Between the date of BWRs last rankings on June 30, 2014 and February 27, 2015, the top nine countries declined by an average of -6.65%. The bottom nine countries actually did better and declined -5.21%. That created a return differential of -1.44% while their benchmark MSCI All Country World Index did much better, gaining 2.32%.
