Stock Portfolio Analysis: Oct 2023 (2024)

This article compares my stock portfolio with an equivalent investment in a Nifty index fund and the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 TR index. We post this comparison each month. Before we begin, new readers need to appreciate the context of these investments.

I started direct equity investing only after achieving a comfortable level of financial independence and ensuring my son’s future portfolio is reasonably secure. At the time of writing, its value is about 14.2% of my equity MF retirement portfolio and 8% of my total retirement portfolio.

Therefore, I invested without the fear of performance. There is no experimentation or research in the stock selection strategy. That is often a waste of time and, therefore, a waste of true wealth – time. I continue to invest in the same way. Plenty of money can be made in low-volatile, robust blue-chip stocks.

Caution:No part of this article should be treated as investment advice. I started investing in stocks after my goal-based investing was in place. Readers must appreciate that I started investing in stocks after hitting the threshold of financial independence. So there is no pressure for me when I pick stocks the way mentioned here. Please do your research and buy as per your circ*mstances.

My goal is to buy stocks with practically zero research. I also continue to invest as usual in mutual funds.

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I have purchased mutual funds every month, regardless of market levels, and I shall strive to copy this uninteresting strategy for direct equity if I have the money. Also, see Fourteen Years of Mutual Fund Investing: My Journey and Lessons Learned.

Time is not just money; Time is unquantifiable money. Time wasted in stock or mutual fund analysis, the right time to invest, etc., is an unquantifiable loss. So, I aim to buy a fund or stock within a minute.

There is zero skill involved in any aspect of my portfolio. I compensate for the lack of knowledge with discipline. Randomness (aka luck) plays a massive role in the return numbers below.

After evaluating the performance of low-volatility indices, I got the confidence to invest in stocks. I told myself I would not do any stock analysis or research. A quick check of company health, a brief volatility review, and buy. If I cannot buy a stock within a few minutes, I am wasting time and money (in that order).

The way I see it, the stock portfolio is part of my retirement portfolio basket as a dividend source. It could serve as an emergency fund as a last resort. Maybe I will find another use for It in future.

In FY 2020-21, this portfolio’s total dividend income (pre-tax) was about 30% of my current monthly expenses. In FY 2021-2022, it increased to about 56%. The next goal is to receive one month’s expenses as a total quarterly dividend (post-tax!). I do not consciously reinvest dividends. Younger people should. It matters little as long as the overall investment made each month keeps growing healthy: How ten years of tracking investments changed my life.

This stock portfolio is part of my overall retirement portfolio. I am striving to build the ideal retirement portfolio. Also, see How to build a second income source that will last a lifetime.

Stock picking strategy

  1. Choose stocks with little or no evaluation or analysis.
  2. Choose low volatile stocks with sound financial health (low debt min requirement)
  3. Choose stocks that trade close to their all-time highs (approx momentum indicator). See, for example, A list of stocks that have traded close to their “all-time high:
  4. Do not be afraid to pick expensive stocks at absolute price and valuation. Note: Value investing may sound intelligent and enticing, but it is riskier. I neither have the age to take on such a risk nor the qualitative insights to pick stocks that the market has shunned but will be discovered sooner rather than later. To appreciate the risk associated with value investing and why it is more qualitative than quantitative, see this analysis:
  5. When in doubt, ask your wife when she is about to fall asleep in the afternoon.
  6. Do not fear dividends (or dividend taxation).
    • What matters primarily is company health. Whether it is a dividend payer or not is incidental. It makes no sense to say no to a company because it pays huge dividends! It makes no sense to sell a stock because it has increased dividend payout.
    • All stock investors over 10-plus years will receive dividends whether or not they like it. There is no choice, unlike mutual funds.
    • Dividends are not “extra” regarding returns/performance but represent real profit. It can serve as a source of income for an older investor, Building the ideal retirement portfolio.Younger investors will never understand this, and that is fine.
  7. Peaceful sleep is the best form of realised gains, hence the importance to business health, low volatility, and reasonable momentum (not all stocks in my portfolio will check all these boxes).
  8. This is the archive of previous portfolio updates.

Related videos: How to buy your first stock without breaking your head

Stock Portfolio Analysis

This is the portfolio evolution.

As of Oct 23 2023, all results are computed using our Google Sheets-based stock and MF portfolio trackers.

Please note: (1) Although investments started in 2014, most of the money invested is only from July 2020. So, the portfolio is still too young.

(2) I did not invest between Nov 2021 and April 2022 due to other priorities. At the time of writing, the last investment was made in October 2022. The portfolio weights have drifted naturally. When I can invest, I try to chase momentum within the portfolio and invest in stocks that have gained the most since I started investing in them.

  • Dividend Return = Total Dividends divided by Total Investment
  • Capital Gain (CG) Returns = Total CG divided by Total Investment
  • Total Return = Dividend Return + CG Return.
  • CAGR = ( 1 + Total Return ) ^ ( 1 / Avg. Years) – 1
  • Avg. year =2.954 for the entire portfolio. This is the average of all purchase investment tenures weighted by the investments.
  • CAGR is computed only if the average years = > 1. XIRR should be taken seriously only if avg-years => 1.
  • All returns are before tax.
  • The portfolio is compared with identical investments into UTI Nifty 50 Index Fund (direct plan!)

Many people and portals mistake treating dividends as cash payouts while calculating XIRR. This is not the universally accepted academic and regulatory convention. Only purchases and redemptions by the investor should be used in the XIRR calculation. Dividends should be treated appropriately as reinvested (a rule also mandated by SEBI), and other corporate actions should be treated appropriately. The freefincal stock tracker aligns with SEBI regulations for all corporate actions (dividends, splits, buybacks, etc.)

Comparison with benchmark

The NIfty 100 low vol 30 is a better benchmark for this portfolio. However, we can only compare it with the index, not the ETF (from ICIC), launched only in 2017.

  • Stock portfolio (absolute return)* 28.25%
  • UTI Nifty index fund (absolute return)* 40.74%
  • Nifty Low Vol 30 TRI (absolute return)* 44.08%
  • Stock portfolio CAGR 8.79%
  • UTI Nifty Index fund CAGR 12.26%
  • Nifty Low Vol 30 TRI CAGR 13.16%
  • Stock Portfolio XIRR (incl all corporate actions like dividends and splits) 9.33%
  • UTI Nifty Index fund XIRR 14.46%
  • Nifty Low Vol 30 TRI XIRR 15.33%

* Total return and CGAR include liquidated holdings (see monthly update archives for details). The concentrated nature of the portfolio cuts both ways. It gains big and loses big.

According to Tikertape, the portfolio has no red flags with a beta of 0.56 – meaning 44% less volatile than an index like the Nifty or Sensex. The stock portfolio has underperformed for the past seven months.

According to simplywall.st, this is the portfolio “snowflake” score. “An established income portfolio with a solid track record”. It is also relatively overvalued (low valuation score).

I have had fun building this with no effort and will continue. Please do your research and invest.

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Dr. M. Pattabiraman(PhD) is the founder, managing editor and primary author of freefincal. He is an associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. He has over ten years of experience publishing news analysis, research and financial product development. Connect with him via Twitter, Linkedin, or YouTube. Pattabiraman has co-authored three print books: (1) You can be rich too with goal-based investing (CNBC TV18) for DIY investors. (2) Gamechanger for young earners. (3) Chinchu Gets a Superpower! for kids. He has also written seven other free e-books on various money management topics. He is a patron and co-founder of “Fee-only India,” an organisation promoting unbiased, commission-free investment advice.

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Stock Portfolio Analysis: Oct 2023 (2024)

FAQs

What is the best stock to invest in October 2023? ›

Best-Performing Stocks of October 2023

Apellis Pharmaceuticals APLS rallied 27.9% in October, but shares were still down 5.9% in the year to date. Shares are 48.6% below their last high on June 14, 2023. Deckers Outdoor DECK climbed 16.1%, leaving the stock up 49.6% for the year.

What is likely to happen to the stock market in 2023? ›

Instead, earnings may drip down slowly throughout 2023, frustrating market bears. Interest rates on long-term bonds have fallen lower than those of short-term bonds, creating an inverted yield curve that usually portends an upcoming economic slowdown.

What is the best month to buy stocks in 2023? ›

NYSE Composite best and worst months over the last 10 years (2014-2023)
  • Best Months: April, June, July, October, November, and December.
  • Worst Months: January, February, March, August, and September are weaker periods.
Jul 30, 2024

What is the best performing stock in the year to date 2023? ›

Top-Performing Stocks of 2023
  • Coinbase.
  • Nvidia.
  • DraftKings DKNG.
  • Meta Platforms META.
  • Palantir Technologies PLTR.
Jan 2, 2024

What stock is expected to skyrocket? ›

10 Best Growth Stocks to Buy for 2024
StockImplied Upside*
Meta Platforms Inc. (META)25.8%
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)4.5%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)9.6%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)12.0%
6 more rows
Jul 22, 2024

Is October the best month to buy stocks? ›

October. October has also been seen as one of the best months to buy stocks. Stock prices have increased by an average of 1.3% since 1928 according to research from Fidelity Investments. This is likely due to its proximity to the end of quarter earnings reports which are released at this time.

At what age should I get out of stocks? ›

The 100-minus-your-age long-term savings rule is designed to guard against investment risk in retirement. If you're 60, you should only have 40% of your retirement portfolio in stocks, with the rest in bonds, money market accounts and cash.

Which stock will boom in 2024? ›

Best stocks in 2024
S.No.NameCMP Rs.
1.BLS Internat.389.90
2.Black Box545.40
3.RHI Magnesita597.65
4.Gujarat Gas610.70
22 more rows

Which stock will boom in 2023? ›

High growth stocks-2023
S.No.NameROCE %
2.Monarch Networth51.53
3.Ganesh Housing45.22
4.Kothari Petroche41.32
5.Emkay Taps & Cut38.99
18 more rows

What is the 10 am rule in stock trading? ›

Some traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and the time between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. often has significant trading volume. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour.

What is the most bullish month for stocks? ›

Since 1928, July has emerged as the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance. Over that time frame, the S&P 500 SPX has experienced a gain of 1.7% in July and finished the month higher more than 60% of the time, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

What month do stocks drop the most? ›

September is traditionally thought to be a down month. The September effect highlights historically weak returns during the ninth month of the year, which could be aided by institutional investors wrapping up their third-quarter positions.

What stocks are hot right now? ›

Most Actives
SymbolNamePrice (Intraday)
NVDANVIDIA Corporation104.92
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.29.99
INTCIntel Corporation19.74
LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc.5.68
21 more rows

What are some aggressive stocks? ›

Aggressive stocks
S.No.NameDiv Yld %
1.Tata Elxsi1.03
2.Angel One1.61
3.Sonata Software1.28
4.Birlasoft Ltd1.14
7 more rows

What stock went up 1000 percent in a day? ›

Even so, the gains posted by Ambrx Biopharma (AMAM) in Friday's session are unusual and particularly eye-catching. The stock soared to the tune of a hardly believable 1007% after the company announced pleasing results from the mid-stage testing of its breast cancer drug ARX788.

What stocks will double in 2023? ›

Stocks That Will Double In 2023
  • Walker & Dunlop, Inc. ( NYSE:WD) ...
  • Polestar Automotive Holding (NASDAQ:PSNY) Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 10. ...
  • Riot Blockchain, Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 18. ...
  • NIO Inc. ( NYSE:NIO) ...
  • Hims & Hers Health, Inc. ( NYSE:HIMS) ...
  • Coinbase Global, Inc. ( NASDAQ:COIN) ...
  • Roku, Inc. (
Sep 18, 2023

What is a very good stock to invest in right now? ›

Sign up for Kiplinger's Free E-Newsletters
Company (ticker)Analysts' consensus recommendation scoreAnalysts' consensus recommendation
Uber Technologies (UBER)1.46Strong Buy
Broadcom (AVGO)1.46Strong Buy
Micron Technologies (MU)1.47Strong Buy
ServiceNow (NOW)1.48Strong Buy
19 more rows

Which share will double in 3 years? ›

Stock Doubling every 3 years
S.No.NameCMP Rs.
1.P. H. Capital216.00
2.Jyoti Resins1437.50
3.Prime Industries196.00
4.HB Stockholdings177.90
22 more rows

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