S&P 500 could reach 6,000 this year if Big Tech keeps impressing, says Goldman Sachs (2024)

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What is Goldman Sachs S&P 500 forecast for 2024? ›

S&P 500 Will Rise To 5,600 By End Of 2024 As Average Stock Catches Up, Goldman Says.

June 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) , opens new tab to 5,600 from 5,200, citing strong earnings growth by five mega-cap U.S. tech stocks and a higher fair value price-to-earnings ratio multiple.

Overall, Yardeni Research forecasts S&P 500 operating earnings at $250 in 2024, up 12% vs 2023. He puts them at $270 in 2025 (up 8%) and $300 in 2026 (up 11.1%). These figures compare with analysts' consensus forecasts of $244.70 in 2024, $279.70 in 2025 and $314.80 in 2026.

Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.

Optimistic: 6%-7% per year.

If you assume margins and P/E multiples will remain at their current high level, and expect sales and buybacks to grow at their historical rates, then you can anticipate making about 6% in returns per year over the next decade.

The revised estimates from strategists now put their average year-end target for the S&P 500 at 5,289, implying a decline of less than 1% from Monday's levels, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the average target was around 5,117 (see table below).

While definitely elevated by historical standards, that's still short of the 28 level during the dot-com peak, Emanuel said. He sees a possibility of the 500-member index reaching 7,000 by the end of 2025, he added.

In terms of a price target, Bank of America is targeting S&P 500 5,150 to 8,700 with its S&P 500 price forecast for 2030.

Goldman Sachs says its 'base case' gold forecast is USD 2700 by the end of 2024 | Forexlive.

Will 2024 be a bull or bear market? ›

The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official. The onset of a new bull market has historically been a very reliable stock market indicator.

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

The bank now sees the record-busting index SPX ending 2024 at 5,600, from a prior 5,200 thanks to "milder-than-average negative earnings revisions and a higher fair value price/earnings multiple," said a team of strategists led by David Kostin, in a note to clients late Friday.

SNPINDEX: ^GSPC

The market is surging, but is now really the best time to buy? The S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.16%) has been booming over the past year and a half, currently up by nearly 50% from its low in late 2022. The index has also reached two dozen all-time highs throughout 2024, its most recent in late May.

If gains broaden out and lift the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, the main, cap-weighted benchmark could rise another 9% to 5,900 before 2024 closes out. In his most optimistic case, if mega-cap “exceptionalism” persists, the gauge could soar to 6,300 by the end of the year.

The S&P 500 Index is forecast to return 6% in 2024

In their 2024 US Equity Outlook, Goldman Sachs Research expects US stocks to have a modest return next year, as above-consensus economic growth is partly offset by high equity valuations.