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October 2021 - last edited October 2021
@DarthValtrexYes, i know that. The math takes that into account.
To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.
Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.
One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes
H or T
Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).
Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?
Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.
That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".
- DR
