Short-term: narrow ranges, strong dollar on yields.
Dollar weakens next year with Fed cuts, Euro flows.
EUR/USD: 1.08 (end 2024) to 1.18 (end 2025).
USD/JPY: 150 (end 2024) to 135 (end 2025).
GBP/USD stays below 1.30 throughout.
Commodity currencies depend on dollar drop, global growth.
RBC considers that the dollar overall is likely to remain in a relatively narrow range in the short term while it has retreated to near the bottom of recent trading ranges.
It commented; “That in turn makes it seem more likely that the next move for USD is likely to be back towards the middle or higher end of its range rather than a breakout lower.”
It also notes that the US retains its yield advantage over the Euro.
For the dollar to make strong gains it considers that a re-acceleration in inflation or shock to risk appetite such as an escalating conflict in the Middle East will be needed.
RBC notes that most investors consider a Trump victory in November would boost the dollar due to tariffs and trade wars.
It also notes that a minority of banks expect a weaker dollar due to excessive budget deficits and Trump pushing for a dovish Fed.
Looking at overall fundamentals, it adds; “as long as the USD runs a private sector surplus we think it’s hard for budget deficits to turn into a USD story.”
RBC also sees little in the way of fresh Euro drivers in the short term with bank President Lagarde guiding markets to a June rate cut.
The bank does note that the dollar will be vulnerable if there are substantial interest rate cuts.
It adds; “One key impact of deeper Fed cuts would be to converge the cost of carry for USD and EUR. A narrowing in hedging costs, of the sort we saw in 2020, could lead to a material move higher in EUR/USD. We have pencilled that in for 2025 though the timing is highly uncertain.”
RBC notes the pressure for the Bank of Japan to exit negative interest rates.
The bank expects that there will be a sharp yen correction stronger once the BoJ move is made, but it does not expect yen gains to last.
It considers that USD/JPY corrections may now be held above 140.0 and added; “the expected dip in USD/JPY as the BoJ delivers its first hike in decades, should be seen as a buying opportunity.”
It also notes that the possibility of an even slower cutting path for the Fed makes it seem more likely that USD/JPY will trade around a 150 handle for longer. The end-2024 USD/JPY forecast has been revised to 150 from 145 previously.
As far as the Chinese yuan is concerned; “Although Beijing continues to evince an aversion to large-scale fiscal stimulus, targeted support measures are gradually adding up. They should be enough to keep a floor on economic growth.” This would also support the yuan.
Pound Sterling Fiscal Pressures will Intensify
It considers that the Bank of England (BoE) will only start reducing interest rates in August and that; “GBP may benefit from decent carry in the near-term.
It does, however, consider that the Pound is vulnerable to a deterioration in UK economic data and it expects little short-term EUR/GBP change.
It also expects the BoE will sanction four cuts to 4.25% by the end of 2024 which will curb Pound support.
RBC notes important fiscal pressures within the economy and any deterioration in credibility would hurt the Pound.
It added; “We have EUR/GBP moving higher next year, but this is more about expectations for a EUR/USD rally than a strong negative GBP view vs EUR.”
EUR/GBP is forecast to strengthen to 0.94 at the end of 2025 from 0.87 at the end of this year.
The bank has downgraded its Swiss franc forecasts with expectations that carry trades will dominate and undermine the Swiss currency. EUR/CHF is forecast to move above parity by the end of 2024.
RBC expects the Canadian dollar will be held in relatively narrow ranges in the short term with the first rate cut in June.
Longer-term it considers the overall global growth trajectory will be a key element for the currency.
It added; “a potential turn in the global business cycle may benefit CAD, given CAD is likely to be one of the main candidates for the market expressing a view on global growth. US elections may present some volatility in H2.”
USD/CAD is forecast to retreat to 1.29 at the end of 2025.
It notes that the Australian dollar will continue to be sensitive to risk appetite and global growth trends.
The end-2024 AUD/USD forecast has been revised lower to 0.66 from 0.68.
It expects gains to 0.73 during 2025 and added; “There is a potential strong upside risk for AUD if China’s economy revives more strongly, with corresponding growth in its imports from Australia, but this is not a baseline scenario.”
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2024, the USDCAD exchange rate is 1.37934 CAD per 1 USD. Many analysts project that the USDCAD's bullish rally, which started in December 2023, will continue in 2024. Most experts expect the asset price to remain between 1.4200 and 1.4420. A conservative forecast suggests moderate growth to 1.3900-1.3990.
The CAD to INR exchange rate is forecasted to increase by 0.55% in the next 24 hours, rising from the current rate of ₹ 60.55 to ₹ 60.89. Currently, the sentiment in the CAD/INR market is estimated to be bullish.
According to BookMyForex, the forecast suggests that in the first month of the new year 2023 the expected rate is 81.46 Indian Rupees. It is predicted that it remains constant at 81.72 Indian Rupees from March 2023 to May 2023.
The MBA forecast suggests that 30-year mortgage rates will fall to the 6.6% by the end of 2024, while Fannie Mae and NAR predict rates will end the year around 6.7%.
Japan continues to be a popular choice, but Vietnam and South Korea stand as solid alternatives among numerous countries in Asia with favourable exchange rates for the US dollar. Closely following in value are South American countries: Argentina and Chile are among those offering the biggest luxury bang.
1. Kuwaiti dinar. Known as the strongest currency in the world, the Kuwaiti dinar or KWD was introduced in 1960 and was initially equivalent to one pound sterling. Kuwait is a small country that is nestled between Iraq and Saudi Arabia whose wealth has been driven largely by its large global exports of oil.
Typically, the least busy times of the week are Mondays, mid-week and the weekend (excluding Friday). These days have the lowest number of transfers in the week, so you might expect to see less fluctuation in the mid-market rate.
Erythrocyte count; Red blood cell count; Anemia - RBC count. An RBC count is a blood test that measures how many red blood cells (RBCs) you have. RBCs contain hemoglobin, a protein which carries oxygen.
A low RBC count, also known as anemia, can affect the body's ability to transport oxygen and nutrients around the cardiovascular system. It can cause fatigue, dizziness, and heart palpitations. The most common form of anemia is iron deficiency anemia. This can result from blood loss, malnutrition, or kidney problems.
The results of an RBC count can be used to help diagnose blood-related conditions, such as iron deficiency anaemia (where there are less red blood cells than normal). A low RBC count could also indicate a vitamin B6, B12 or folate deficiency.
The best time you can buy Canadian Dollar is when it is convenient and you are happy with the service and rate. We recommend not leaving it too late to buy your Canadian Dollar if you are travelling. Over the last 7 days the GBP to CAD market rate has averaged 1.7770 with a high of 1.7819 and a low of 1.7674.
The best bang for your buck is to evenly average out your exchanges over the last 5 business days of the month, with savings of $8,137.92 annually. Don't follow the same footsteps as your CAD to USD exchanges, because if you exchange all your funds on the 1st business day of the month you have chosen the worst option.
Basic Info. US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate is at a current level of 1.383, down from 1.385 the previous market day and up from 1.328 one year ago. This is a change of -0.16% from the previous market day and 4.15% from one year ago.
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