Outlooks: Market and Economic Forecasts | Morgan Stanley (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the economy of Morgan Stanley? ›

Morgan Stanley economists anticipate U.S. growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, compared with 2.5% in 2023. Year-over-year growth is likely to moderate toward the end of 2024 with fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.1%, compared with 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. “Despite our view for growth above 2% for the U.S.

MSCI World Index earnings are expected to rise close to 10% in 2024 and by 11%+ in 2025. This looks demanding given expected 2024 nominal GDP growth in developed markets of 3%-4%, and seems to imply that margins will have to rise further from levels that are already close to peak.

The average price target for Morgan Stanley is $110.93. This is based on 17 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months. The highest analyst price target is $124.00 ,the lowest forecast is $91.00. The average price target represents 14.85% Increase from the current price of $96.59.

We expect U.S. core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) to fall from 3.5 % to below the consensus estimate of 2.6% by the end of 2024.

Experts have mixed opinions about Morgan Stanley. While some see potential in the capital markets business and wealth management, others are concerned about the recent unremarkable performance and lack of growth in the wealth management sector.

Fed Projections

In its latest long-term economic projections released in December, the Federal Open Market Committee projects core PCE inflation of 2.4% and GDP growth of 1.4% in 2024. FOMC members also anticipate just three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Analysts' consensus EPS estimate is $1.69 on revenue of $14.4 billion, according to FactSet. Overall, Morgan Stanley is resoundingly stable. During last quarter's conference call, Pick cited geopolitical concerns and a weakening U.S. economy as Morgan Stanley's two biggest risks.

Overall, Yardeni Research forecasts S&P 500 operating earnings at $250 in 2024, up 12% vs 2023. He puts them at $270 in 2025 (up 8%) and $300 in 2026 (up 11.1%). These figures compare with analysts' consensus forecasts of $244.70 in 2024, $279.70 in 2025 and $314.80 in 2026.

Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.

Morgan Stanley stock has received a consensus rating of buy. The average rating score is and is based on 52 buy ratings, 26 hold ratings, and 4 sell ratings.

What is the market outlook for H2 2024? ›

The Global Mid-Year Outlook 2024 Webinar

Growth is broadening out and inflation is unsticking itself. Profits are recovering and investment markets look exuberant. But, in H2, investors will have to contend with some economic cooling in the US as well as election and geopolitical uncertainty.

The benchmark S&P 500 (. SPX) , opens new tab will end 2024 at 5,600 points, according to the median forecast of 41 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected Aug. 8-20.

As of 30 September 2022. Morgan Stanley Leading Earnings Indicator (MSLEI) is a macro factor-based earnings model that leads actual earnings growth by one year with a 0.7 12-month leading correlation.

Arab Finance: Morgan Stanley has revised Egypt's gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the fiscal year (FY) 2024/2025 upward to 4.8%, up from a previous estimate of 4.3%, as per a research note.

Current estimates of 2025 earnings for S&P 500 Index companies are between $272 and $277 per share—a 25% jump from 2023 levels. At the heart of these optimistic forecasts is investors' belief that companies' operating-profit margins will expand.

Morgan Stanley is optimistic about India's economic growth due to strong domestic demand. The firm forecasts GDP growth of 6.8% in 2024-25 and 6.5% in 2025-26. It predicts inflation to be around 5% in the second quarter, easing to 4.1% in the second half of 2024.

The bank Morgan Stanley was reported to have lost over 80% of its market value during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. On September 17, 2008, the British evening-news analysis program Newsnight reported that Morgan Stanley was facing difficulties after a 42% slide in its share price in two days.

Morgan Stanley has maintained a long-standing “base case” target for copper for 2024 of US$10,500/t for the LME. You can see from the chart below that they've been spot on with their call given the last traded LME copper price is US$10,587.