Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Trading - HowToTade (2024)

The NFP report, also known as the Non-Farm Payroll report, is released by the US Department of Labor every first Friday of the month and is a key economic indicator that holds a significant place in the Forex world as it offers a crucial glimpse into the health of the US economy.

The report captures the net employment change in the non-farming, non-government, private households, and non-profit sectors, providing a comprehensive view of the current unemployment situation and the total labor force participation rate in the US. Essentially, the report measures the number of workers in the US labor force, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and government employees.

Since the Nonfarm payrolls is such an important economic indicator and is a widely watched event in financial markets, the release of the non-farm payrolls report often triggers significant market fluctuations, impacting not just currencies but also equities, bonds, interest rates, and commodities, making it a highly anticipated event in the financial sphere.

The NFP report is a monthly report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that holds immense significance as it provides a pulse check of the economic well-being of the United States. The Federal Reserve pays close attention to the NFP jobs data in order to determine its interest rate policy.

Given the complexity of the NFP data, the report is often subject to large revisions of the previous month's results. This figure also has a significant impact on financial markets as it provides an indication of job growth in the US. The report delves into the employment situation, presenting an overview of the core conditions that drive the economy, including the number of new jobs created, average hourly earnings, and the current unemployment rate. Jobs are considered the backbone of any economy, and its economic growth directly impacts workers' confidence and spending power, further fueling the broader economy.

Since the US is a major player in the global economy, the Non-Farm Payrolls report also has far-reaching implications for markets around the world. With many economies relying on American consumers for business and profits, the report generates significant interest among forex traders worldwide, leading to speculation and anticipation in the run-up to its release. In short, the Non-Farm Payroll report is a crucial barometer of not just the US economy but also the global financial landscape.

The Non-Farm Payroll report persistently causes high volatility in financial markets. It is arguably the most market-moving economic data watched by central bankers, analysts, investment banks, and investors.

NFP figures can lead to the following outcomes:

• A higher-than-expected NFP figure signals a resilient US economy, leading to speculations that the Fed will raise interest rates. In that case, strong NFP data can lead to bullish movements for the US dollar and the US and global stock markets.
• A lower-than-expected NFP figure signals a weakness in the US labor market, indicating a potential decrease in interest rates by the Fed. This may lead to investors favoring other currencies over the US dollar and to a decline in stock markets.
• A same-as-expected NFP value can lead to high volatility in the markets. However, the market direction might not be clear, and investors may have to turn to NFP revisions from previous months to better understand the US economy’s economic condition.

Essentially, there are endless possibilities for trading on NFP day. Traders with open positions are advised to close their positions before the release or set a stop loss to mitigate their loss.

Short-term traders typically take two approaches to trading on Non-farm Payrolls day:

Place An Order Before/During The Release:

Traders can exploit the volatility before and during the NFP release to predict future market direction. However, trading before and during the release requires strict risk management as the NFP data can be highly unpredictable.

When trading before or during the NFP data release, many traders place buy-stop or sell-stop orders above and below the range. With this method, traders aim to take advantage of the volatility in the markets while, at the same time, using this risk management technique to protect their accounts from severe losses.

Place An Order After The Release:

Trading after the NFP data release is more common among forex traders since this technique is less risky and allows traders to better control their decision-making.

Typically, the NFP report creates market volatility, and interpreting the released data might be complex. Quite often, a V-shaped reversal pattern is also formed following the release, which can be characterized by a sudden increase/decrease in the value of an asset and then a market movement in the opposite direction.

As a result, many experienced traders wait for 15-30 minutes after the release for the volatility to trend down before placing an order.

The NFP employment report can have an effect that lasts several days or even weeks. Consequently, some traders prefer to avoid the NFP day and be more active in the days following the release. Remember that the NFP report is usually released on the first Friday of each month, which means the day after the release is Monday.

During the weekend, investors and traders can better analyze the NFP figure and its implications on the US economy and various FX currencies and commodities. Then, based on the NFP result, the forex trading sentiment can be determined for the following days. For example, higher-than-expected NFP data support a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to speculation of a rate hike and, as a result, an increase in the value of the US dollar.

As for the stock market - the NFP data might affect the equity markets in two ways. A higher-than-expected figure indicates a potential growth in the economy and vice versa. However, it is also crucial to understand the context at the time of the release. A strong NFP report can also lead to inflationary pressure, which means the Fed might have to raise interest rates soon. Higher interest rates can negatively affect stock markets and company earnings.

For the above reasons, traders often prefer to trade after the NFP day. This way, they can feel the market sentiment and make well-informed decisions.

There’s no one Non Farm Payrolls trading strategy to utilize when the NFP data is released. Different traders take different approaches and trading strategies to trade this key event. Having said that, there are crucial factors that you must consider before trading the NFP data.

First, you must know the economic condition of the US and global economy prior to the NFP report. That could be a major factor in how the markets will respond following the release. Secondly, and most importantly, you must know how to analyze the data, meaning what the expectations are, what happened in the previous month, and what is considered a good result so the markets will respond in one way or another. It is also advised to monitor the ADP National Employment report, which is published on Wednesday of the same week and can provide an indication of the NFP result. Lastly, to develop your own NFP trading strategy, you must also know how every instrument reacts to different NFP figures, such as the stock markets, the US dollar, major and minor currency pairs, bonds, and commodities.

Yes, trading around the time of the NFP release can be risky since the markets are extremely volatile and unpredictable. For that reason, many traders choose not to trade during the time of the release or wait for 15-30 minutes after the release to enter the markets.

On the other hand, traders who thrive in such conditions of high market volatility may find the NFP report a great opportunity to make quick profits.