The Indian market has underperformed YTD compared to states like Taiwan, the US & Japan, and Germany. Key reasons are premium valuations, that failed to sustain the accelerated growth observed from CY21 to 23. Additionally, investments have shifted from large-cap to mid-cap stocks, which are not reflected in the Nifty50 index. The market has also been impacted by reduced FII inflows amid national election risks and weak rural demand caused by a subdued agricultural sector.
Country
Index
1 yr. forward PE
CY23 Return(%)
YTD Return(%)
Taiwan
TWSE
19
27
31
US - Nasdaq
CCMP
29
43
18
Japan
NKY
21
28
15
US - S&P 500
SPX
21
24
15
Germany
DAX
12
20
9
India
Nifty50
20
20
8
UK
UKX
12
4
7
South Korea
KOSPI
10
19
6
US-Dow Jones
INDU
18
14
4
France
CAC
13
17
2
China
SHCOMP
11
-4
1
The risk of underperformance has diminished following the formation of a stable coalition, and FII inflows have improved this month. However, it is premature to be optimistic, as global sentiment remains mixed due to high inflation and interest rates. Moreover, the economy is expected to slow slightly in CY25, and valuations remain high.
The outlook for the domestic stock market & economy is stable. India’s broad market, the Nifty 500, has delivered an above-average return of 14.5% over the past six months, driven by strong mid and small-cap performance. In January 2024, we had a forecast of an 8.5 to 12% return on the main index, Nifty50, with a base target of 23,600. We now upgrade the target to 24,350, due to better than anticipated earnings growth and an upgrade in economic growth.
Nifty50 EPS was forecast at ₹1,243 for Dec 2025, and currently it holds tall at ₹1,250. The latest Q4FY24 result was hugely above forecast. PAT was forecast to grow by 10%, while actual growth is 17.5%. As a result, the future target for Nifty5o, basically the market, has improved due to better business performance, with a high probability of expanding in FY25. Nifty EPS grew by ~23.8% in FY24 and is forecast to achieve between 12 to 15% in FY25.
In January 2023, FY24 GDP was forecasted to grow by 6.5% by RBI, but the actual growth has exceeded expectations, reaching over 8.2%. This trend is likely to continue into FY25, as indicated by the RBI’s upgrade of FY25 GDP growth from 7% to 7.2% in the June policy. The RBI expects Q1FY25 GDP growth to be at an upside of 7.3%.
We can estimate another 4 to 7% return for Nifty50, in the next 6 months, based on our new base target of 24,350 and the best target of 25,000. Which is a decent return in the next less than 6 months, annualize is 12 to 15%. Alongside, the market has a lot to offer on a stock to sector basis by investing in upcoming areas.
In the long-term, we foresee a target of 26,500 for December 2025. The market estimates a stable earnings growth of 12 to 14% for the next 2-3yrs in anticipation of the average 7% GDP growth of India. The volatility, which increased during the year, has drastically reduced with the formation of a stable coalition. The market is now eagerly awaiting the final union budget outcomes, anticipating a prudent fiscal policy that balances growth objectives with populist measures.
The author Vinod Nair is the Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circ*mstances may vary.
Emkay Global on Nifty50 target: Emkay Global has increased its Nifty50 index target to 26,000 for September 2025, up from 22,000 seen for June 2025. The revision comes amid hopes of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, along with a possible revival in rural and mass consumption back home.
Analysts are predicting that profits for the S&P 500 will rise more than 15% in 2025, up from their 12.8% forecast at the start of this year and a hotter pace than 2024's expected earnings growth of 10.7%.
This is likely to support EBITDA margin and realisations of companies. Hence, we expect earnings growth to improve in the coming quarters,” Nair said. In the base case, Nifty 50 target for December 2024 is 24,600, while in the bull case, Nifty 50 target is 26,000, Nair said, expected limited upside in the stock market.
If Nifty touches 90000–100000 by 2030, how would it affect the stock prices in general?: This prediction was made by Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on February 21, 2021. He is very bullish on the India markets and expects NIFTY to reach these levels by 2030. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala expects Nifty 50 to reach 100k by 2…
A fall below 24,250 might take the index towards 24,200-24,180,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities. According to him, on the higher end, resistance is placed at 24,650, above which further upside looks possible.
Overall, Yardeni Research forecasts S&P 500 operating earnings at $250 in 2024, up 12% vs 2023. He puts them at $270 in 2025 (up 8%) and $300 in 2026 (up 11.1%). These figures compare with analysts' consensus forecasts of $244.70 in 2024, $279.70 in 2025 and $314.80 in 2026.
On April 12, 1994, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3,681.69. Over the trailing-30-year period, this widely followed index has increased at an annualized rate of 8.09%! If this superior rate of gains were to persist, the Dow could reach 50,000 before the calendar changes to 2028. Image source: Getty Images.
Employment Type. Brokerage firm ICICI Securities says that Nifty could reach 25,200 by December 2024, with strong support at the 22,200 level, keeping in mind the historical market trend in election years.
The Nifty 50 TR index has returned 11.8% CAGR, 17.6% CAGR and 28.4% CAGR over the last 15 years, 5 years and 1 year respectively. Volatility has been 22% over the last 15 years, 18.2% over the last 5 years and 15.8% over the last 1 year. All data are as of December 15, 2021.
Analysts Set Nifty 50 Target at 24,600 for December 2024: Sectors to Steer Clear Of. Explore the Nifty 50 target for 2024, sectors to avoid, and key investment insights. Learn about India's market dynamics, overvaluations, and expert sectoral forecasts with Research 360 by Motilal Oswal.
In the long-term, we foresee a target of 26,500 for December 2025. The market estimates a stable earnings growth of 12 to 14% for the next 2-3yrs in anticipation of the average 7% GDP growth of India. The volatility, which increased during the year, has drastically reduced with the formation of a stable coalition.
Nifty will double from 24,000-25,000 to 48,000 in the next five years even after offering 14% in 2024 so far and there will be far fewer corrections or shallower corrections, market veteran Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.
Synopsis. Vikas Khemani projects India's corporate profitability to reach $1 trillion by 2035, potentially boosting Nifty to around 1 lakh. He highlights the growth opportunities across various sectors and the transformative potential of long-term investments in India's evolving market.
Yes, investing in a Nifty 50 mutual fund for the long term can be a suitable option. Long-term investing in equity-oriented schemes allows investors to potentially benefit from the power of compounding. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme-related documents carefully.
Yes, Nifty 50 is a subset of NIFTY 100, comprising the top 50 companies by market capitalisation in India. Is it worth investing in Nifty Next 50? Investing in Nifty Next 50 can be worthwhile for long-term growth as it includes potential future blue-chip companies, but it may carry higher volatility.
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