Author: Joseph Jeffriess
Foreign exchange (FX) markets are known for their dynamic nature, constantly influenced by a myriad of economic, geopolitical, and social factors. Identifying the most volatile currency pairs is crucial for traders, investors, and financial institutions seeking opportunities in the FX market. This article delves into the realm of currency volatility, providing a detailed analysis of the most volatile FX pairs for 2022 and projecting their potential performance for 2023.
Understanding Volatility
Currency volatility refers to the degree of price fluctuations exhibited by currency pairs over a given period. Volatile currency pairs tend to experience larger price swings, presenting both opportunities and risks for market participants. Volatility can arise from various factors, including economic data releases, political events, central bank decisions, and market sentiment. Information on those factors is available on our website and as per the level of importance it has, the details are updated regularly on daily and even real-time basis.
Methodology
To determine the most volatile currency pairs for 2022 and 2023, we analyzed historical data, assessed market trends, and considered key events that could impact currency movements. It’s important to note that volatility can be influenced by unpredictable events, so these projections should be considered informed estimations rather than absolute predictions.
USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen):
The USD/JPY pair is often perceived as a barometer of global market sentiment due to its sensitivity to risk-on and risk-off movements. In 2023, we expect this pair to maintain its volatility, driven by factors such as monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators from the United States and Japan. The ongoing recovery from the pandemic and potential fiscal policy changes in both countries could further contribute to volatility this year.
Daily and monthly volatility:
Historically, the USD/JPY pair has exhibited an average daily pip movement of around 50-100 pips and an average monthly pip movement of approximately 500-800 pips. However, during periods of high volatility, such as economic crises or geopolitical tensions, the pair can experience larger movements, exceeding 100 pips per day and the monthly range can expand to exceed 1000 pips.
GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar):
Brexit uncertainties, coupled with economic developments and monetary policy decisions in the United Kingdom and the United States, are expected to continue influencing the GBP/USD pair’s volatility in 2023. The pace of economic recovery post-Brexit, trade negotiations, and political developments will remain key factors in determining volatility for this pair in 2023.
Daily and monthly volatility:
The GBP/USD pair typically experiences an average daily pip movement of approximately 80-120 pips and a monthly pip movement of approximately 700-1000 pips. However, during periods of heightened volatility, such as Brexit-related developments or major economic announcements, the pair’s volatility can increase, leading to larger pip movements, sometimes surpassing 150 pips in a day and the monthly range can extend beyond 1500 pips.
EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar):
The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded in the FX market, is influenced by a wide range of factors. In 2023, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions, economic recovery from the pandemic, and political events within the Eurozone are likely to contribute to volatility. Moreover, U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve actions, and global trade dynamics will also shape volatility for this pair in 2022 and 2023.
Daily and monthly volatility:
On average, the EUR/USD pair has a daily pip movement of approximately 70-100 pips. This pair typically exhibits an average monthly pip movement of around 600-900 pips. However, during periods of heightened market volatility, such as major economic announcements or political developments, the pair’s movement can extend beyond 100 pips per day while the monthly range can surpass 1000 pips.
USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar):
The USD/CAD pair is significantly influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil, given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. Volatility in this pair can be attributed to changes in oil prices, economic indicators from the United States and Canada, and geopolitical developments affecting the oil market. In 2023 and 2024, ongoing discussions surrounding climate change policies, global oil demand, and economic recovery efforts will likely play a substantial role in driving volatility.
Daily and monthly volatility:
The USD/CAD pair usually exhibits an average daily pip movement of around 60-90 pips and a monthly pip movement of approximately 500-800 pips. Since the Canadian dollar is influenced by oil prices, significant fluctuations in crude oil markets can lead to larger pip movements, ranging from 100 to 150 pips or more and monthly pip movements can exceed 1000 pips during periods of significant volatility in the oil market.
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar):
The AUD/USD pair exhibits volatility due to Australia’s reliance on commodity exports, especially iron ore and coal. Factors such as Chinese economic data, commodity price fluctuations, Reserve Bank of Australia decisions, and global market sentiment impact this pair’s volatility. The post-pandemic recovery, changes in global trade dynamics, and sustainability initiatives will continue to influence volatility for this pair in 2023 and 2024.
Daily and monthly volatility:
Historically, the AUD/USD pair has an average daily pip movement of approximately 70-100 pips and typically experiences an average monthly pip movement of around 600-900 pips However, economic data releases, commodity price fluctuations (especially related to iron ore and coal), or shifts in market sentiment can trigger increased volatility, resulting in pip movements exceeding 100 pips per day, which can lead to larger monthly pip movements, sometimes surpassing 1000 pips a month.
EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen):
In the past year, the EUR/JPY pair emerged as one of the most volatile currency pairs, exhibiting notable pip movements on a weekly basis. The average pip movement for this pair can vary depending on market conditions, but it has experienced weekly ranges of approximately 200-300 pips during periods of heightened volatility. Factors contributing to the volatility of EUR/JPY include economic indicators from the Eurozone and Japan, monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Traders and investors closely monitor this pair for its potential trading opportunities, but they also need to exercise caution due to the increased volatility and wider pip ranges it has shown in the past year.
* The information provided here has been prepared by Eightcap’s team of analysts. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Eightcap.
In addition to the disclaimer on our website, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or represent an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. Eightcap accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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