Longer lives and 'lumpy' expenses force Americans to rethink their retirement-savings math (2024)

Before Mary Beth Barritt retired, she and her husband did all the math: They calculated the optimum time to draw Social Security, consulted advisers on structuring their investments and budgeted for daily expenses as well as plans to travel.

But the retired college career counselor says she was taken by surprise by unplanned home repairs, like a broken pipe in the basem*nt of their 90-year-old Vermont house and a tree removal that led to major landscaping work.

“You forget there might be some unexpected big things,” Barritt says. Even though these issues also turn up before retirement, it can impact your finances differently when you don’t have a salary hitting your checking account like clockwork, she notes.

That experience isn’t uncommon among retirees, says Dan Keady, chief financial planning strategist at TIAA.

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'Lumpy' expenses

“People sometimes sit down and say, ‘What are my core monthly bills?’” but that may lead to overlooking unexpected costs like broken appliances or unplanned car repairs, he says. “It’s what we call lumpy expenses.”

Longer lives and 'lumpy' expenses force Americans to rethink their retirement-savings math (1)

Building a surplus into your budget to handle those unexpected costs can help smooth the retirement years, Keady adds. And that’s just part of the challenge of preparing for a no-drama retirement, especially at a time when more than 1 in 5 Americans has less than $5,000 socked away for retirement, according to a recent Northwest Mutual survey.

That may explain why almost half of Americans now say they’ll work past the traditional retirement age of 65, says Janice Co, chief strategy officer for Prudential’s Workplace Solutions Group.

Many people, she says, can't “imagine being able to afford retirement.It's tied to that feeling of, ‘I haven't saved, I don’t have enough,' and their solution is, ‘I'm just going to work forever.’”

New retirement rules

But that might not prove realistic, given that health problems can crop up or you may suffer an unexpected job loss.

The first step, Co says, is to face your fears by sitting down with an adviser or a retirement calculator –such as those offered by AARP or T. Rowe Price –and doing the math. The calculators will assess your savings, the market’s projected return until you retire and your expected Social Security payments, providing an assessment of whether you’re saving enough.

The rule-of-thumb to replace 80% of your working income in retirement may not work for everyone, experts say. For instance, Morningstar research found the actual income replacement value for retired workers ranges from 54% to almost 90% of preretirement income, which underscores the need for a personalized plan.

The known unknowns

Americans are also living longer than previous generations, but many workers underestimate how long they’ll live in retirement, says Keady. In some cases, they’ll base their estimates on the Social Security longevity calculator – but fail to factor in that those life expectancy numbers represent an average.

“That means 50% pass away before that date, and 50% pass away past that date, and there is a huge divergence,” Keady says. “For the individual, especially if someone is healthy, you see many, many living well into their 90s.”

That can throw your retirement calculations out the window – and represents one of the biggest risks to funding your retirement. Because it’s impossible to know exactly how many years of retirement you’ll need to fund, adding a guaranteed income stream from an annuity or another type of investment can help allay fears of running out of money, he adds.

And don’t forget that health care costs can be much higher in retirement than you might expect. For instance, Medicare – the government insurance program for seniors – doesn’t cover dental care or long-term care, which can take a big bite out of retirees’ budgets.

When things go wrong

Even after doing everything right, things can go awry through no fault of one’s own.

That’s what Edd and Cynthia Staton learned a decade ago, when their home lost two-thirds of its value in the housing crisis and their retirement assets plummeted.

“You can have it all planned out, but you don't know what is around the next hill,” Edd Staton says. “We decided we had to have a lower cost of living so we could have the life we planned on with the money we had, rather than money we thought we would have.”

They took a step that’s growing in popularity: retiring outside the U.S.

About 660,000 Americans now draw Social Security outside the U.S., more than double from a decade ago, according to the Social Security Administration. The Statons, who operate a website about retiring abroad, saythey picked Ecuador for its low cost of living, good weather and national health care system. They say their monthly expenses are about $2,000 a month, which they fund through their Social Security benefits and, as a result, are able to invest and grow their nest egg.

Of course, such a dramatic move isn’t for everyone – especially those who want to be geographically close to family and grandkids.

The Statons asked themselves how they wanted to enjoy their retirement and how to accomplish that goal, which are questions that every worker should mull over, says Co of Prudential'sWorkplace Solutions Group.

“Let's say you save and you've done everything right, how do you plan to spend your money?” she says. “Enjoying your life is important as well.”

Longer lives and 'lumpy' expenses force Americans to rethink their retirement-savings math (2024)

FAQs

What is the 95% rule retirement? ›

The “95% Rule”, a variation of the Constant Percent scheme in which the maximum variation in income from year to year is limited to 5% up or down. The Constant Percent scheme.

Is $3 million enough to retire at 65? ›

To some people, $3 million will sound like a lot. You probably think $3 million is enough to retire if you're among that crowd. But retiring with $3 million at 65 can last depending on your longevity, lifestyle and other factors.

Why are Americans not saving for retirement? ›

Ghilarducci, author of “Work, Retire, Repeat: The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy,” blames the retirement savings crisis on the switch to 401(k)s. These “do-it-yourself pensions” have marooned a growing number of low- and middle-income Americans, forcing them to work long into their 70s, she said.

What is the 25x rule for retirement? ›

If you want to be sure you're saving enough for retirement, the 25x rule can help. This rule of thumb says investors should have saved 25 times their planned annual expenses by the time they retire, according to brokerage Charles Schwab.

Why the 4% rule no longer works for retirees? ›

The 4% rule comes with a major caveat: It's not really a “rule” since everyone's situation is different. If you have a large retirement investment portfolio, you might not need to spend 4% of it every year. If you have limited savings, 4% might not come close to covering your needs.

What is the 80 20 retirement rule? ›

What is an 80/20 Retirement Plan? An 80/20 retirement plan is a type of retirement plan where you split your retirement savings/ investment in a ratio of 80 to 20 percent, with 80% accounting for low-risk investments and 20% accounting for high-growth stocks.

How many people have $3000000 in savings in the USA? ›

There are estimated to be a little over 8 million households in the US with a net worth of $3 million or more.

How long will $1 million last in retirement? ›

For example, if you have retirement savings of $1 million, the 4% rule says that you can safely withdraw $40,000 per year during the first year — increasing this number for inflation each subsequent year — without running out of money within the next 30 years.

What percentage of people retire with $5000000? ›

Data from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, based on the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances, reveals that a mere 0.1% of retirees manage to accumulate over $5 million in their retirement accounts, whereas only 3.2% amass over $1 million.

What percentage of Americans live paycheck to paycheck? ›

Recent MarketWatch Guides survey results indicate that 66.2% of Americans feel like they're living paycheck to paycheck. Respondents struggling to make ends meet span demographics, including genders, generations and incomes.

How many people retire with no savings? ›

20% of adults ages 50+ have no retirement savings, 61% worry they won't have enough at retirement, as per new AARP survey. Plus six tips to start saving now.

How many people regret not saving for retirement? ›

More than half of Gen Xers say they regret not saving more for retirement. Fifty-five percent of Americans born between 1965 and 1980 wished they had more saved, according to an Allianz Life study.

What is the $1000 a month rule for retirement? ›

According to the $1,000 per month rule, retirees can receive $1,000 per month if they withdraw 5% annually for every $240,000 they have set aside. For example, if you aim to take out $2,000 per month, you'll need to set aside $480,000. For $3,000 per month, you would need to save $720,000, and so on.

How long will $500,000 last in retirement? ›

Retiring with $500,000 could sustain you for about 30 years if you follow the 4% withdrawal rule, which allows you to use approximately $20,000 per year. However, retiring at a younger age will likely reduce the amount you receive from Social Security benefits.

Can I retire at 60 with $500,000? ›

The short answer is yes, $500,000 is enough for many retirees. The question is how that will work out for you. With an income source like Social Security, modes spending, and a bit of good luck, this is feasible. And when two people in your household get Social Security or pension income, it's even easier.

What is the minimum pension in 95? ›

What is the current minimum pension under EPS 95? The central government announced a minimum pension of Rs 1,000 per month to the pensioners under Employees' Pension Scheme (EPS), 1995 from September 1, 2014 by providing additional budgetary support.

How much can you withdraw without touching the principal? ›

The 4% rule is intended to make your retirement savings last for 33 years, and potentially more. This rate of withdrawals means that most of the money used will be the interest and gains on investments, not principal, assuming a reasonably healthy market return.

What is the golden rule for pensions? ›

The golden rule is essential for calculating the appropriateness of pension plans. The golden rule limits the interest rate that may be applied to compound interest. It may only be set as high as the average salary increases.

What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 70 year old? ›

As a rule of thumb, many retirees use 4% as their safe withdrawal rate—the so-called 4% rule. The 4% rule states that you withdraw no more than 4% of your starting balance each year in retirement, adjusted each year for inflation.

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