Linas Beliūnas on LinkedIn: This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it… | 836 comments (2024)

This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it identifies years of panic, as well as periods when to make money 😳The 150-year-old Benner Cycle has predicted almost all major crises since the mid-1920s. It accurately foresaw the Great Depression, WW2, the Dot Com bubble, and the recent COVID crash.The Benner Cycle quite accurately predicted how the markets will perform in 2023 as well. We haven't seen a dramatic crash but:- Major stock indices like the S&P 500 did experience a decline in 2023 ending the year around 5% lower than its 2022 peak.- The global economy faced tough challengeswith factors like inflation,rising interest rates,and the ongoing wars around the world contributing to economic uncertainty.Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase". This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic.

This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it identifies years of panic, as well as periods when to make money 😳The 150-year-old Benner Cycle has predicted almost all major crises since the mid-1920s. It accurately foresaw the Great Depression, WW2, the Dot Com bubble, and the recent COVID crash.The Benner Cycle quite accurately predicted how the markets will perform in 2023 as well. We haven't seen a dramatic crash but:- Major stock indices like the S&P 500 did experience a decline in 2023 ending the year around 5% lower than its 2022 peak.- The global economy faced tough challengeswith factors like inflation,rising interest rates,and the ongoing wars around the world contributing to economic uncertainty.Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase". This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic.

I have come across this picture by Samuel Benner multitudes of time so I asked GPT 4 about this and here is the response:"Samuel Benner's predictions, as outlined in his cycle, have seen mixed levels of accuracy when compared to historical financial events. Some of the key events that his cycle seemingly aligned and did not align with:Accurate:1. The Great Depression (1929 to 1941): Benner's cycle indicated that 1926 and prior were good times and 1927 was a period of panic, aligning reasonably well with the onset of the Great Depression.2. Oil Crisis (1973): The cycle predicted good economic times in 1972 and hard times in 1978, which aligns with the oil crisis that began in 1973.Black Monday (1987): Benner's cycle was a bit off, predicting this crash in 1985, but it was only a few years off.3. Dot Com Bubble (1995 to 2002): The cycle showed 1999 as a period of panic, coinciding with the Y2K bug fear and the dot com bubble burst in the early 2000s.4. The Financial Crisis (2007 to 2008): The cycle indicated prosperity in 2007, which aligns with the real estate investment boom before the crash.Inaccurate:- Post-1873 Predictions: After predicting the crises of 1819, 1837, 1857, and 1873, the Benner cycle became less accurate.- False Predictions in 1965 and 1999: The Benner cycle gave false predictions for these years. For instance, 1999 was anticipated as a year of significant market downturn, but instead, it was marked by the height of the dot-com bubble.- The 2019 Prediction: While Benner predicted a recession in 2019, the sharp, deep recession that was expected started a little later, in early 2020.While some of Samuel Benner's predictions have seemingly corresponded with historical financial events, the overall accuracy and reliability of his cycle are subject to debate. Financial experts generally advise against relying solely on such cycles for making investment decisions. These cycles, including Benner’s, are often criticized for their lack of scientific basis and should ideally be used in combination with other financial analysis tools. The inaccuracies in Benner's model, particularly in the context of modern financial markets, underscore its limitations. Originating from a framework focused on agricultural commodity prices and basic cyclical patterns, the cycle fails to encompass the myriad factors that now influence global financial systems. This gap highlights the necessity of integrating diverse and sophisticated approaches in financial planning and analysis."I still commend the accuracy of some of the events as predicted by such a simple diagram, yet I believe critical reasoning and thorough research are essential before making any bets.Here is a detailed analysis on it by the Rational Investor: \https://lnkd.in/gwhQcScZ#investing

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This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it identifies years of panic, as well as periods when to make money 😳The 150-year-old Benner Cycle has predicted almost all major crises since the mid-1920s. It accurately foresaw the Great Depression, WW2, the Dot Com bubble, and the recent COVID crash.The Benner Cycle quite accurately predicted how the markets will perform in 2023 as well. We haven't seen a dramatic crash but:- Major stock indices like the S&P 500 did experience a decline in 2023 ending the year around 5% lower than its 2022 peak.- The global economy faced tough challengeswith factors like inflation,rising interest rates,and the ongoing wars around the world contributing to economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase". This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic.

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This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it identifies years of panic, as well as periods when to make money.The 150-year-old Benner Cycle has predicted almost all major crises since the mid-1920s.It accurately foresaw the Great Depression, WW2, the Dot Com bubble, and the recent COVID crash.The Benner Cycle quite accurately predicted how the markets will perform in 2023 as well.We haven't seen a dramatic crash but:- Major stock indices like the S&P 500 did experience a decline in 2023 ending the year around 5% lower than its 2022 peak.- The global economy faced tough challengeswith factors like inflation,rising interest rates,and the ongoing wars around the world contributing to economic uncertainty.Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase".This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic.

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#nadironayab This analysis is insanely accurate! Published in 1875 by Samuel Benner, it identifies years of panic, as well as periods when to make moneyThe 150-year-old Benner Cycle has predicted almost all major crises since the mid-1920s. It accurately foresaw the Great Depression, WW2, the Dot Com bubble, and the recent COVID crash.The Benner Cycle quite accurately predicted how the markets will perform in 2023 as well. We haven't seen a dramatic crash but:- Major stock indices like the S&P 500 did experience a decline in 2023 ending the year around 5% lower than its 2022 peak.- The global economy faced tough challenges with factors like inflation, rising interest rates, and the ongoing wars around the world contributing to economic uncertainty.Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase". This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic.

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Looking ahead, the Benner Cycle suggests that 2024 might be a year of gradual recovery, entering the "Prosperity Phase". This zone indicates a period of rising prices and economic expansion and a good time to buy assets.And we are....

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This one graph is an old one (dated 1875!). You don't need always to come up with new fancy analysis as you can take existing ones and find out: "Fascinating 150-year-old math and logic works insanely good!"#investing #stockmarket #usstocks #familyoffices #privatebanking #bondmarket #endowments #stocks

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Math & Patterns - Economic prediction model from 1875

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Interesting analysis if you invest.

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