Is inflation worse under Democrats or Republicans? The truth is hazier than it may seem (2024)

Rachel BarberUSA TODAY

Inflation—you know it, and you definitely don’t like it. According to Americans polled in a Pew Research Center report last year, it is the nation’s top problem.

Frustration withinflation is mutual across the political aisle, with 77% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats calling it a “very big problem,” according to the report.

Inflation, which hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, has since slowed down significantly. However, it remains a concern for Americans as prices for mortgages, groceries, car insurance, and transportation have become volatile and more expensive.

Economic research has shown that the economy generally does better under Democrats than Republicans but that inflation is constantly in flux, and its causes are often difficult to track.

Presidents have limited control over inflation, but it can still affect their election performance. Incumbents are usually favored when the economy is strong and challengers when there is perceived weakness.

More: Federal Reserve March meeting: Rates hold steady; 3 cuts seen in '24 despite inflation

What is inflation?

Inflation, in basic economic terms, occurs when prices rise and money loses value due to an increase in the money supply, allowing more consumer purchases.

In the United States, inflation is usually measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks variations in prices typical consumers pay for things like food, housing, and cars.

According to the CPI,overall prices rose 3.2% from a year earlier in February, slightly up from 3.1% in January.

The average year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4% under President Barack Obama and 1.9% under President Donald Trump. Under President Joe Biden, it is 5.7%.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), supply-chain disruptions and shocks to food and energy prices“contributed substantially” to the sharp rise in inflation during and following the COVID-19 pandemic.

More: How soon will the Fed cut interest rates? Inflation report this week could help set timing

Perception and experience of inflation differ

Inflation expectations and the severity of inflation’s consequences depend on who you ask.

According to a 2023 Brookings report, consumer inflation expectations are influenced by the political party in power. In particular, Republicans tend to expect higher inflation when Democrats are in the presidency, while Democrats expect higher inflation when Republicans are in control. This partisan gap has flipped once again with Biden’s election.

The report attributes the change in consumer expectations to voters’ association of “good times” with periods of low inflation.

Individual experiences with inflation also differ because the price of some goods rises while others fall. For example, the cost of buying a car skyrocketed during pandemic lockdowns. However, consumers who already had cars or didn’t drive weren’t impacted. However, the cost of food and groceries is felt by everyone.

Is inflation better under Democrats or Republicans?

American Economic Association researchers concluded thatfrom 1945 to 2016, the average inflation rate was lower under Democratic presidents than under Republicans, but inflation oftenfalls under Republicans and rises under Democrats.

The same researchers also conclude that these performance gaps are due to factors like supplyshocks, consumer expectations, and foreign economic growth, which “might be considered blends of good policy and good luck.”

For as long as the BLS has kept track, CPI data implies something similar. The highest year-over-year inflation rate (9.9%) happened under Democrat Jimmy Carter. The lowest year-over-year inflation rate (1.4%) happened under Democrat John F. Kennedy.

The second highest year-over-year inflation rate (8%) occurred under Republican Gerald Ford, and the second lowest (1.4%) was under Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Rachel Barber is a 2024 election fellow at USA TODAY,focusing on politics and education. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, as @rachelbarber_

Is inflation worse under Democrats or Republicans? The truth is hazier than it may seem (2024)

FAQs

Does the economy do better under Republicans or Democrats? ›

Since World War II, the United States economy has performed significantly better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents.

Who has worse inflation? ›

The current highest inflation rates by country are Venezuela (59.25%), Zimbabwe (20%), Argentina (40%) and Ghana (29%).

Who will be hurt the most from inflation? ›

Figure 1 – Welfare Losses from Inflationary Shocks

The figure shows that when inflation is driven by the Fed unexpectedly cutting interest rates, young and middle-aged college-educated households lose the most, while older and less-educated households are largely unaffected or even benefit.

What is the Democrat position on inflation? ›

In June, the New Democrat Coalition released a comprehensive action plan to fight inflation, lower the cost of living for Americans, and secure the long-term fiscal future of the nation.

What do Republicans believe about the economy? ›

Economic issues. The Republican Party since the 1920s has adhered to an ideology of fiscal conservatism. Republicans strongly believe that free markets and individual achievement are the primary factors behind economic prosperity.

What kind of economy do Democrats believe in? ›

The party favors a mixed economy and generally supports a progressive tax system, higher minimum wages, Social Security, universal health care, public education, and subsidized housing. It also supports infrastructure development and clean energy investments to achieve economic development and job creation.

Which group of people is inflation hardest on? ›

Prior research suggests that inflation hits low-income households hardest for several reasons. They spend more of their income on necessities such as food, gas and rent—categories with greater-than-average inflation rates—leaving few ways to reduce spending .

Who is getting hit the hardest by inflation? ›

By most measures, low-income households have been hardest hit, experts say. The lowest-paid workers spend more of their income on necessities such as food, rent and gas, categories that also experienced higher-than-average inflation spikes.

Who is better off during inflation? ›

More specifically, homeowners that have agreed to long-term, fixed mortgages may benefit from inflation. Higher rates often push prospective buyers out of the market, so those who are in greater financial positions may benefit from the diminished housing market.

Who gets rich during inflation? ›

Inflation can have varying effects on different wealth brackets with the middle class benefiting from real estate assets, but facing challenges in other areas. The "wealth effect" benefits those with substantial assets from increased asset values, like stocks, real estate and entrepreneurial endeavors.

What is the biggest culprit of inflation? ›

It can be brought on by increases in production costs associated with raw materials or labor, or market disruptions like those caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Higher demand can also lead to inflation. And certain fiscal and monetary policies such as tax cuts or lower interest rates are potential drivers.

Who doesn't benefit from inflation? ›

Retirees

A high inflation rate often means wage increases, but that won't benefit those who are retired, McBride says. Their pots of retirement money are already mostly fixed. Price pressures could further harm retirees' wallets if they have too much exposure to cash or fixed-income investments, such as bonds.

Are Democrats or Republicans worse for the economy? ›

The data show that, since World War II, the economy has performed substantially better under Democratic presidents. On average, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP has grown about 1.6 times faster under Democrats than under Republicans.

What branch of government controls inflation? ›

As the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy, it influences employment and inflation primarily through using its policy tools to affect overall financial conditions—including the availability and cost of credit in the economy.

What do liberals believe about inflation? ›

Modern liberals generally believe that national prosperity requires government management of the macroeconomy to keep unemployment low, inflation in check and growth high. They also value institutions that defend against economic inequality.

Does trickle down economics work? ›

'Trickle-down economics' is a scam that ignores decades of evidence. Like climate change denial, the claimed economic benefits of tax cuts for the rich don't hold up under scrutiny.

How many presidents were Democrats? ›

Three of the nine current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic presidents. By registered members, the Democratic Party is the largest party in the U.S. and the fourth largest in the world. Including the incumbent Biden, 16 Democrats have served as president of the United States.

What is gop? ›

The Republican Party, also known as the GOP (Grand Old Party), is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. It emerged as the main political rival of the then-dominant Democratic Party in the mid-1850s, and the two parties have dominated American politics ever since. Republican Party.

What is the US GDP growth rate by years? ›

U.S. gdp growth rate for 2022 was 1.94%, a 4.01% decline from 2021. U.S. gdp growth rate for 2021 was 5.95%, a 8.71% increase from 2020. U.S. gdp growth rate for 2020 was -2.77%, a 5.06% decline from 2019. U.S. gdp growth rate for 2019 was 2.29%, a 0.65% decline from 2018.

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