[Edited]
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August 2020 - last edited August 2020
Hi,
By the time you reach Level 500, you'll receive 199 Apex Packs and purchasing every Battle Pass will increase this total to 259 Apex Packs.
So, you have an under 1% chance to get Heirloom Shards like this.
Sadly, it is currently impossible to get 500 Apex Packs (for your guaranteed Heirloom) without directly purchasing them from the Store or from bundles/collection events.
Getting the extra needed 241 Apex Packs will cost 24,100 Apex Coins, equivalent to $200+
The guarantee is a little high (so it will cost you a pretty penny) but luckily an heirloom is not gameplay enhancing.
You're not alone: I have yet to get my first heirloom too.
Hope this helped and good luck with getting an heirloom!
CompleatBeet_963