Anup Thacker
Active Global Financial Market Trader.
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The statement "Trades with a 1:3 risk-reward ratio needs only a 26% win rate to be a profitable" refers to a key concept in trading, known as risk-reward ratio and its relationship to the win rate required for profitability. Let me explain with an example:Suppose you are a trader, and you consistently use a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 in your trades. Here's what that means:1. Risk-Reward Ratio (1:3): For every trade you take, you are willing to risk 1 unit of your capital (e.g., $100) to potentially gain 3 units (e.g., $300) if the trade goes in your favor.Now, let's consider the win rate:2. Win Rate: This represents the percentage of your trades that are profitable. For example, if you have a 50% win rate, it means that half of your trades are winners, and the other half are losers.To understand the concept of the statement, you need to calculate the breakeven win rate for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.Breakeven Win Rate: This is the minimum win rate you need to be a profitable trader. It's the win rate at which your gains (when you win) offset your losses (when you lose).For a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, you can calculate the breakeven win rate as follows:Breakeven Win Rate = 1 / (1 + Risk-Reward Ratio)In this case:Breakeven Win Rate = 1 / (1 + 3) = 1/4 = 0.25 or 25%So, with a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, you only need a win rate of 25% to break even. This means that if you win 25% of your trades and lose 75%, you won't be profitable, but you also won't be losing money overall.To be a profitable trader, you need a win rate higher than the breakeven win rate. In this case, you'd need a win rate higher than 25%. If your win rate is, for example, 26%, you'd be a profitable trader because your gains from winning trades (which are 26% of the time) outweigh your losses (which are 74% of the time).In summary, the statement highlights the importance of having a favorable risk-reward ratio in trading. With a 1:3 ratio, you can be a profitable trader even if you win only 26% of the time, as long as your winners are three times larger than your losers.
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Andrew Lee
Servicing Manager & Forex Trader
4mo
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Early on, I tried to risk 1 to earn 0.5. Then 1 to earn 1. Then 1 to earn 2. 1:3 is the best ratio.
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Anup Thacker
Active Global Financial Market Trader.
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Interesting take on 'Swiftonomics'! Who knew Taylor Swift's economic impact could shake markets more than some central banks? 😆 While it's fascinating to see pop culture intersect with economics, it's also a bit concerning that our financial stability might hinge on concert ticket sales. Maybe we should be more worried about diversifying our economic indicators!
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Anup Thacker
Active Global Financial Market Trader.
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While the FDIC's warning on the US banking system is concerning, it's important to look at the quantitative data. Historically, FDIC interventions have been successful in stabilizing the banking sector, with the DIF (Deposit Insurance Fund) maintaining a reserve ratio above the statutory minimum of 1.35%. Furthermore, the capitalization ratio of US banks remains robust at around 11%, compared to the 8% global standard set by Basel III. It's crucial to consider these metrics before predicting systemic collapse.
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