Introduction
The COVID‑19 pandemic caused severe stress in fixed-income markets. In response, in April2020, the Bank of Canada launched the Government of Canada (GoC) bond purchase program. Initially, the program focused on restoring market functioning in the GoC bond market. In July2020, that focus shifted to providing additional monetary stimulus through quantitative easing (QE).1
Under QE, the Bank bought government bonds in exchange for settlement balances and, as a result, its balance sheet expanded.2, 3 Settlement balances (or reserves) are deposits that major Canadian banks hold at the Bank (Chuetal.2022).
The Bank’s quantitative tightening (QT) program, which began in April2022, is the reverse process. Through QT, the Bank allows its holdings of GoC bonds to mature and stops reinvesting the proceeds of principal and coupon repayments. As a result, the Bank’s balance sheet will shrink over time.
In this note, we describe how both QE and QT affect the balance sheets of the Bank and the overall Canadian banking system.4 We show that the direct effects on the size, composition and liquidity of the banking system’s balance sheet during QE and QT depend on who sells (during QE) or buys (during QT) GoC bonds in the financial system—banks or non-bank participants (such as households, businesses or investment funds). During QT, the effect will be greater if non-bank participants replace the Bank as the marginal buyer of GoC bonds. This is the most likely scenario since historically, non-bank participants have held a significant share of the GoC bond market. As well, during QE, the Bank primarily displaced these entities in terms of GoC holdings.
This analysis focuses exclusively on the mechanical impacts of QE and QT. Other factors that could influence the size and composition of commercial banks’ balance sheets, including natural growth in bank deposits, loan growth and changes in the level of government bond issuance, are held constant.
The Bank’s footprint in the government bond market will shrink as quantitative tightening proceeds
The Bank held a total of about $430billion in GoC bonds before it ended QE and entered the reinvestment phase in November2021. During this period, the Bank kept its holdings of GoC bonds roughly constant (Chart1). QT, launched in April2022, began reducing GoC bond holdings on the Bank’s balance sheet by not replacing maturing GoC bonds. As a result, the size of the Bank’s balance sheet will decrease over time in a predictable manner.5