Highlights of Munger's 25 Tendencies of Human Misjudgment (2024)

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Highlights of Munger's 25 Tendencies of Human Misjudgment (1)

Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition

October 4–6, 2010

Manama, Bahrain

ISBN:

978-1-55563-308-0

W. H. Kuo

W. H. Kuo

Saudi Aramco

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Paper presented at the Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition, Manama, Bahrain, October 2010.

Paper Number: SPE-133263-MS

Published: October 04 2010

Citation

Kuo, W. H. "Highlights of Munger's 25 Tendencies of Human Misjudgment." Paper presented at the Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition, Manama, Bahrain, October 2010. doi: https://doi.org/10.2118/133263-MS

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Abstract

The hallmark of an excellent professional is impeccable judgment, perhaps more so for managers. To make good judgments, one must be cognizant of human tendencies to err in a predictable and systematic way. Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathawa and a long-time partner of Warren Buffett, the world's second richest man after Bill Gates, arrived at 25 psychological tendencies of human misjudgment, which he has presented in lectures at Caltech and Harvard, and is published in a book entitled Poor Charlie's Almanack in a chapter called The Psychology of Human Misjudgment.

In applying his construct, Munger gives lucid illustrations of historical blunders as examples. His also provides definitive antidotes to obviate making such predictable and systematic judgment errors. A professional or manager not only may apply Munger's "antidotes" to prevent one's own misjudgments; he could also transform his opponent's missteps into his own competitive advantages.

Due to the limitation of time, only highlights of Munger's 25 misjudgment tendencies will be presented. The objective of this presentation is to integrate key elements of the Buffett-Munger's legendary excellence in investment decisions in our own professional skill set.

Munger's 25 psychological tendencies for misjudgment are:

  1. Reward and Punishment Superresponse tendency

  2. Liking/Loving Tendency

  3. Disliking/Hating Tendency

  4. Doubt-Avoidance Tendency

  5. Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency

  6. Curiosity Tendency

  7. Kantian Fairness Tendency

  8. Envy/Jealousy Tendency

  9. Reciprocation Tendency

  10. Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency

  11. Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial

  12. Excessive Self-Regard Tendency

  13. Overoptimism Tendency

  14. Deprival-Superreaction Tendency

  15. Social-Proof Tendency

  16. Contrast-Misreaction Tendency

  17. Stress-Influence Tendency

  18. Availability-Misweighing Tendency

  19. Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency

  20. Drug-Misinfluence Tendency

  21. Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency

  22. Authority-Misinfluence Tendency

  23. Twaddle Tendency

  24. Reason-Respecting Tendency

  25. Lollapalooza Tendency

Copyright 2010, Society of Petroleum Engineers

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Highlights of Munger's 25 Tendencies of Human Misjudgment (2024)

FAQs

What is the psychology of human misjudgment by Charlie Munger about? ›

It's about how behavioral psychology can be applied to decision-making. Charlie wrote this because he wanted to help others avoid “standard thinking errors”. In it, he walks through 25 psychological tendencies that can lead to bad decision-making.

What is the reward and punishment Superresponse tendency? ›

Understanding Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency sheds light on how humans react strongly to the promise of reward or fear of punishment, often resulting in exaggerated responses.

What is the senescence misinfluence tendency? ›

Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency

With advanced age, there comes a natural cognitive decay, differing among individuals in the earliness of its arrival and the speed of its progression. Practically no one is good at learning complex news skills when very old.

What is inconsistency avoidance tendency? ›

Five: Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency

The brain of man conserves programming space by being reluctant to change, which is a form of inconsistency avoidance. We see this in all human habits, constructive and destructive.

What is the inversion theory of Charlie Munger? ›

Charlie Munger's inversion principle teaches us the power of a strategic, defensive approach to achieving our goals. For job seekers, this means actively working to identify and avoid common pitfalls, from the way they present themselves online to how they engage with potential employers.

Is it misjudgment or misjudgement? ›

/ˌmɪsˈdʒʌdʒmənt/ (also misjudgment) [countable, uncountable] ​the act of forming a wrong opinion about somebody/something, especially in a way that makes you deal with them or it unfairly. The government made a serious misjudgment in its reaction to the crisis.

What are the 4 types of rewards and punishments used to influence one's behavior according to behavior theory? ›

Now let's combine these four terms: positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, positive punishment, and negative punishment (Table 1). Something is added to increase the likelihood of a behavior.

What are the effects of rewards and punishment on behavior seeking? ›

Punishment is really good for quick change that doesn't last long. If you want long term change, then reward works better, although intrinsic reward works better than extrinsic reward.

What is an example of reward punishment? ›

As listed above, positive punishment involves adding something unpleasant to discourage a behavior. Positive reinforcement involves adding something pleasant to encourage a behavior. For example, treating a child to an ice cream cone when he stays quiet and obedient during a shopping trip is positive reinforcement.

Is aging the same as senescence? ›

Aging is the time-related deterioration of the physiological functions necessary for survival and reproduction. The phenotypic changes of senescence (which affect all members of the species) are not to be confused with diseases of senescence, such as cancer and heart disease (which affect individuals).

What are the three types of senescence? ›

There are different types of cellular senescence that have been identified, including oncogene-induced senescence, stress-induced premature senescence as seen in patients with diabetes, and the classical replicative senescence.

How to deal with misjudgement? ›

Duke Rohe
  1. Acknowledge the sting. ...
  2. Consider the source. ...
  3. Quit replaying your defense. ...
  4. Ask honestly. ...
  5. While you are still being honest, ask if there is a thread of truth in what was suggested. ...
  6. Practice forgiveness 101, mercy 201, love 301. ...
  7. Look for the path that might have led them to their conclusion.
Mar 31, 2019

What are the three types of avoidance? ›

What Are the 5 Types of Avoidance Behavior?
  • Situational avoidance. This is the most common type of avoidance, says McKay in his book. ...
  • Cognitive avoidance. This type of avoidance is an inside job. ...
  • Protective avoidance. ...
  • Somatic avoidance. ...
  • Substitution avoidance.
Jun 24, 2022

What are inconsistent behaviors? ›

Erratic/inconsistent behavior is behavior that is unpredictable, or may be considered irregular or illogical for the situation, or not keeping with the standards of behavior for a given set of circ*mstances.

Which field of psychology seeks to explain human behavior through conditioning with little to no thought to thoughts or feelings? ›

Behavioral theory is the overarching analysis of human behavior focused on examining a person's environment and learned associations. Behaviorism suggests that all behavior is acquired through conditioning and can therefore be observed without consideration of thoughts or feelings.

What is the big debate among psychologists when it comes to personality? ›

The person–situation debate in personality psychology refers to the controversy concerning whether the person or the situation is more influential in determining a person's behavior. Personality trait psychologists believe that a person's personality is relatively consistent across situations.

What is the Lollapalooza effect? ›

Published Feb 18, 2024. The Lollapalooza effect, as explained by investor Charlie Munger, is when a bunch of different mental habits team up to create a big impact. When we talk about this effect in investing, it means that our thoughts and emotions can really affect how stocks behave.

What did Charlie Munger study? ›

Munger excelled in law school, becoming a member of the Harvard Legal Aid Bureau and graduating in 1948 with a J.D., magna cum laude. In college and the Army, he developed "an important skill": card playing. He used this in his approach to business.

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