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Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition
October 4–6, 2010
Manama, Bahrain
ISBN:
978-1-55563-308-0
W. H. Kuo
Paper presented at the Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition, Manama, Bahrain, October 2010.
Paper Number: SPE-133263-MS
Published: October 04 2010
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Citation
Kuo, W. H. "Highlights of Munger's 25 Tendencies of Human Misjudgment." Paper presented at the Middle East Health, Safety, Security, and Environment Conference and Exhibition, Manama, Bahrain, October 2010. doi: https://doi.org/10.2118/133263-MS
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Abstract
The hallmark of an excellent professional is impeccable judgment, perhaps more so for managers. To make good judgments, one must be cognizant of human tendencies to err in a predictable and systematic way. Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathawa and a long-time partner of Warren Buffett, the world's second richest man after Bill Gates, arrived at 25 psychological tendencies of human misjudgment, which he has presented in lectures at Caltech and Harvard, and is published in a book entitled Poor Charlie's Almanack in a chapter called The Psychology of Human Misjudgment.
In applying his construct, Munger gives lucid illustrations of historical blunders as examples. His also provides definitive antidotes to obviate making such predictable and systematic judgment errors. A professional or manager not only may apply Munger's "antidotes" to prevent one's own misjudgments; he could also transform his opponent's missteps into his own competitive advantages.
Due to the limitation of time, only highlights of Munger's 25 misjudgment tendencies will be presented. The objective of this presentation is to integrate key elements of the Buffett-Munger's legendary excellence in investment decisions in our own professional skill set.
Munger's 25 psychological tendencies for misjudgment are:
Reward and Punishment Superresponse tendency
Liking/Loving Tendency
Disliking/Hating Tendency
Doubt-Avoidance Tendency
Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency
Curiosity Tendency
Kantian Fairness Tendency
Envy/Jealousy Tendency
Reciprocation Tendency
Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency
Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial
Excessive Self-Regard Tendency
Overoptimism Tendency
Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
Social-Proof Tendency
Contrast-Misreaction Tendency
Stress-Influence Tendency
Availability-Misweighing Tendency
Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency
Drug-Misinfluence Tendency
Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency
Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
Twaddle Tendency
Reason-Respecting Tendency
Lollapalooza Tendency
Copyright 2010, Society of Petroleum Engineers
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