Four Problems With Bitcoin Futures (2024)

Excitement over the introduction of bitcoin futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has rallied the cryptocurrency’s prices to record highs.

After the CME and CBOE announced start dates for bitcoin futures trading on their respective platforms, the price of a single bitcoin jumped from $10,000 at the end of last week to a peak of $20,000 on some bitcoin exchanges yesterday.

Investors are enthusiastic about bitcoin futures because institutional investors will bring liquidity and price stability to an otherwise volatile entity. But the hasty move by exchanges has attracted critics. For example, Sir Howard Davies, chair of the Royal Bank of Scotland, criticized the exchanges fornot soliciting enough feedback from market participants before setting price limits and margin trading levels.

That bitcoin is a stateless digital currency and unregulated entity is only expected to add to its complications in futures trading. (See also: CME To Launch Bitcoin Futures.)

Here are four problems that CME and CBOE can expectwhen they begin bitcoin futures trading in coming weeks.

1. Price Limits Will Cut Into Trading Profits

CME’s contracts have price limits of 20% above or below bitcoin’s reference price to curtail volatility. The price limits are aimed at minimizing the adverse impact of bitcoin’s wild price swings on futures markets.

But they might end up cutting into trader profits. This is because the reference price for bitcoin derivatives is based off exchanges in unregulated markets, where price swings of greater than 20% have become fairly common. Thus, futures traders will not benefit from a spike of greater than 20 percent in bitcoin prices at the underlying exchanges.

“Having limits on the derivatives rather than the base asset is counterproductive because it reduces effectiveness of the (futures) instrument,” says Bharath Rao, CEO and co-founder of Leverj. According to Rao, price limits at CME might force traders to look elsewhere to realize the full value of their profits.

2. Bitcoin Futures Could Pose aSystemic Risk at the Exchanges

Bitcoin’s brief history has been marked by volatile spikes and crashes. But these price changes have occurred in short spurts, enabling traders to recover in a short span. “The cumulative impact of such an event (on bitcoin exchanges) is very less,” says Bharath Rao.

However, if the issue is a systemic one, then CME’s price limits could prolong the decline through the domino effect of futures traders selling their contracts en masse. A snowballing sell move could crash the entire market.

Four Problems With Bitcoin Futures (1)

In a letter to the CFTC chair yesterday, the Futures Industry Association (FIA) highlighted bitcoin’s volatile prices and asked for a “separate guarantee fund” for bitcoin futures to clear settlements for the commodity.

“The idea (behind their request) is to isolate risk,” explains Rao. (See also: Can Futures Trading Solve Bitcoin's Problems?)

3. Bitcoin Exchanges Are Unstable

Bitcoin exchanges, which provide a reference price for the asset, mostly work in unregulated markets. Without the overseeing hand of a regulator, they are subject to manipulation.

Bitcoin’s wild price swings have also been characterized by frequent outages in exchanges.As an example, prominent exchanges such as Coinbase and IG Groupstopped trading yesterday when the cryptocurrency’s price shot up and then crashed within 20 minutes. (See more:What Was Behind Bitcoin’s Insane Price Moves On Dec. 7?)

Such outages could prolong trader losses and cut into their profits. “I don’t see how you can get a smooth trading experience, if the exchange shuts down every time the price jerks,” says Rao.

4. The Timing of Bitcoin Futures May Increase Volatility

Typically, futures markets are precursors to price stability for a commodity because they draw in speculators and traders. Given the recent whipsaw in bitcoin’s price, however, some question the wisdom of bringing in new players to the bitcoin market at this time.

“There is already enough speculation surrounding bitcoingiven the recent price increase, and it is clear that it will only increase if more people are capable of participating,” says Gabriele Giancola, co-founder and CEO of quibee, a decentralized loyalty platform.

Christopher Grey, COO of CapLinked, an enterprise collaboration and data sharing platform, cites bitcoin price’s recent parabolic curves as an added incentive for traders and investors to play with its price. “I would expect these wild swings to become even bigger and more commonplace,” he said.

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Four Problems With Bitcoin Futures (2024)

FAQs

What are the risks of Bitcoin futures? ›

Bitcoin and bitcoin futures can be highly volatile. Leverage created by futures contracts can significantly amplify both gains and losses. Futures contracts are standardized, time-limited contracts that convey the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at some point in the future.

What is the disadvantage of Bitcoin futures? ›

Financial Risks:

High Leverage: Crypto futures often involve leverage, allowing you to control a prominent position with relatively little capital. This magnifies gains and losses, potentially leading to significant financial loss, especially if the market moves sharply against your position.

What are the issues with futures? ›

The Risks of Trading Futures

Market Risk: The most obvious risk with futures trading is that prices can be highly volatile, and changes are can be swift, adverse, and devastating. 11 This is because the market risk is magnified by leverage, when there's already enough to worry about when supply and demand shift.

Who issues Bitcoin futures? ›

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) regulates the overall futures market, and the agency considers Bitcoin a commodity, so Bitcoin futures are commodity futures. Bitcoin futures contracts trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which introduces new monthly contracts for cash settlement.

What are the disadvantages of Bitcoin prediction? ›

Cryptocurrency investors should take a price prediction with a good degree of skepticism. One of the major problems with many price predictions about Bitcoin is that they lack sufficient analytical support to back up their claims.

What are the risks of futures? ›

Security futures involve a high degree of risk and are not suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that your customers holding security futures could lose a substantial amount of money in a very short period of time because security futures are highly leveraged.

What are the cons of futures trading? ›

Disadvantages
  • Complex: While anyone can trade futures, there are some complexities involved that can make this a complicated process. ...
  • Over-Leverage: Leverage is a double-edged sword. ...
  • Managing Expiry Dates: Most futures contracts have an expiry date that traders need to monitor.

What are the pros and cons of currency futures? ›

The most prevalent benefits include simple pricing, high liquidity, and risk hedging. The primary disadvantages are having no influence over future events, price swings, and the possibility of asset price declines as the expiration date approaches.

What are the negatives of Bitcoin? ›

Bitcoins Are Not Widely Accepted

Bitcoins are still only accepted by a very small group of online merchants. This makes it unfeasible to completely rely on Bitcoins as a currency. There is also a possibility that governments might force merchants to not use Bitcoins to ensure that users' transactions can be tracked.

Why am I losing money in futures? ›

Market volatility is crucial in causing losses for futures and options traders. High volatility can lead to sudden and unpredictable price movements, increasing the risk of losses for traders who are not adequately prepared or have not implemented appropriate risk management strategies.

Can you go into debt with futures? ›

Unlike more traditional financial products, a futures contract can lead you into debt. Traditional financial investments, such as stocks and bonds, have front end risks. This means that you establish your maximum exposure when buying the investment.

Are futures riskier than forwards? ›

Forwards have more counterparty risk than futures.

What is the point of Bitcoin futures? ›

Bitcoin is a large portion of the growing digital asset market. BTC futures provide investors with transparency, price discovery and risk management capabilities. The contract will also allow individual market participants to access the bitcoin market as well as hedge any direct exposure to bitcoin pricing.

How do Bitcoin futures settle? ›

How are Bitcoin Friday futures settled? Daily settlement for BFF contracts are based on their respective volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of CME Globex trades between 2:59:00 p.m. and 3:00:00 p.m. Central time (CT) rounded to the nearest tradable tick.

What is the margin on Bitcoin futures? ›

Regulated Exchanges

The margin requirement for Bitcoin futures trading at CME is 50% of the contract amount, meaning you must deposit $25,000 in your margin account.

Is the future of Bitcoin safe? ›

While the future of Bitcoin is unknown, retail investors must be very cautious about every move of Bitcoin, as it has witnessed tumultuous before. Moreover, India's stance on cryptocurrencies continues to be firm, with the government bringing all crypto-related transactions under the ambit of the Money Laundering Act.

How long can you hold Bitcoin futures? ›

There are two main types: Perpetual Futures Contracts: These do not have an expiry date, allowing traders to hold positions indefinitely. They are typically subject to periodic funding rates to keep the contract price close to the spot price. Fixed-Date Futures Contracts: These have a specific expiration date and time.

Is crypto futures safe? ›

Safer Than Owning Crypto: Bitcoin futures contracts are relatively safer for dabbling in Bitcoin without getting burnt because futures contracts have positions and price limits that enable you to curtail your risk exposure to the asset class.

Can you lose more than you invest in crypto futures? ›

Cryptocurrency futures are leveraged products, meaning you could lose more than you initially invested, quickly and with relatively small price movements in the underlying futures product.

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