Fixed Income Outlook 4Q 2023: Turning Cautious (2024)

Risk Consideration

Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price.  The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.

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Index Benchmarks

Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

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Date of first use: October 10, 2023. 337643-OTU-1885248.

Fixed Income Outlook 4Q 2023: Turning Cautious (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for fixed income in 2023? ›

In the consensus view, a 5% terminal rate coupled with 3% inflation by 2023 implies a 2% real Fed funds rate. Relative to the post-GFC world where the equilibrium real rate fell close to zero (Figure 6), this new implied rate would be associated with 200 basis points of positive real rates.

What is the outlook for fixed income in 2024? ›

Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.

Will 2024 be a good year for bonds? ›

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

What is the outlook for investment-grade bonds? ›

According to Fitch estimates, $759 billion or 14% of the $5.6 trillion U.S. investment-grade bond market will mature in 2024 and 2025, with $332 billion due in 2024 and $427 billion due 2025 as of Dec. 31, 2023.

Is fixed income a good investment now? ›

Here are 3 reasons why now's a good time to evaluate the role of high-quality fixed income exposure in your portfolio. Bonds are providing healthier yields than we've seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis. Higher current yields support a much-improved outlook for bond returns going forward.

Should I sell my bonds now 2023? ›

If the fixed rate is higher, do not redeem. The fixed rate rose to 0.4% in November 2022 so any I bond purchased after that date should be held. Likewise, you may want to hold on to I bonds issued between May and October 2023. Those I bonds have a fixed rate of 0.9%, which is the highest fixed rate in 16 years.

Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise? ›

If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value. The change in bond values only relates to a bond's price on the open market, meaning if the bond is sold before maturity, the seller will obtain a higher or lower price for the bond compared to its face value, depending on current interest rates.

Is fixed income a good investment in 2024? ›

With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income markets offer many compelling opportunities. We are excited to share our top five fixed income ideas for 2024.

Is now a good time to buy a bond fund? ›

Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.

Should i buy tips in 2024? ›

TIPS are more attractive if the real yield is higher than the fixed rate component on I Bonds. As of November 2024, TIPS are more attractive than I bonds because the real yield on TIPS for maturities between 5 and 17 years is 2.3% or higher. In comparison, the fixed rate component of I Bonds is only 1.3%.

Should I invest in bonds or CDs? ›

After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.

What is the best government bond to buy? ›

  • iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
  • Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
  • Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
  • DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF (DCRE)
  • Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP)
  • SPDR Portfolio Corporate Bond ETF (SPBO)
  • JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST)
  • iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
Apr 8, 2024

What is the highest grade of high-yield bonds? ›

Investment grade and high yield bonds

Investors typically group bond ratings into 2 major categories: Investment-grade refers to bonds rated Baa3/BBB- or better. High-yield (also referred to as "non-investment-grade" or "junk" bonds) pertains to bonds rated Ba1/BB+ and lower.

Should I invest in high yield bond funds? ›

Yields may widen, sending bond prices lower as investors look for additional return to compensate them for the higher risk. Because of their extra risks, high-yield bonds are not typically considered one of the best investments, though they may generate attractive returns.

Should I invest in bonds inflation? ›

Depending on the inflation rate, I-bonds can offer returns that are significantly higher than those of other low-risk investments like certificates of deposit (CDs) or high-yield savings accounts. I-bonds are also attractive because investors bear almost no risk of losing their principal.

Will bond funds recover in 2023? ›

Bond funds staged a fourth-quarter comeback in 2023. Through late October, the Morningstar US Core Bond Index, a proxy for the broad fixed-income market, was on pace for a third-consecutive year of losses as uncertainty around a hard or soft landing lingered and interest-rate volatility persisted.

What are the returns for stocks and bonds in 2023? ›

The final two months of 2023 witnessed impressive surges in both the equity and bond markets, with increases of approximately 15% and 8%, respectively. These gains contributed to year-to-date returns of 25% and 5% for the equity and bond markets, respectively.

What is the bond market performance in 2023? ›

2023 Performance: Largest U.S. Bond Index Funds

Long-term bond funds saw the lowest returns in 2023. The $51.4 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT gained only 3% on the year, despite surging 13% in the fourth quarter.

What is financial 2023 predictions? ›

Prediction: Cash will retake its crown headed into 2023

✅ Cash proved to be king at the start of 2023. Preserving appropriate cash reserves and skillfully handling cash flow was essential to achieving financial stability and taking advantage of growth prospects. However, cash strategies are shifting heading into 2024.

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