By 2034, the gross federal debt of the United States is projected to be about 54.39 trillion U.S. dollars. This would be an increase of around 21 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023, when the federal debt was around 33 trillion U.S. dollars.
The federal debt of the U.S.
The federal debt, also called the national debt or public debt, is the amount of debt held by the United States government. This debt may be to other countries, or to different departments within the government itself. The public debt of the United States has increased significantly over the past 30 years, as it was around 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars in 1990 and surpassed 30 trillion dollars for the first time in 2022. When broken down per capita, the national debt amounted to about 80,885 U.S. dollars of debt per person in the United States in 2021.
The problem of the federal debt
Over the past decade, the federal debt limit in the United States has increased significantly. The U.S. debt ceiling can only be changed by an act of Congress which is then signed by the president. The raising of the ceiling has become a recurring political issue in recent years, especially during times when the Presidency and chambers of Congress are controlled by different parties.
The debt ceiling is a tool that allows the Treasury to issue bonds without congressional approval, allowing for efficiency in the way that the government pays for programs and services. It is thought to be further valuable in that it keeps federal finances in check. However, when the two parties are unable to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, the government comes to a shutdown because they can no longer fund themselves. The Republican Party in particular often positions itself against raising the federal debt ceiling, characterizing themselves as the party of fiscal conservativism. However, analyses have shown that both parties have contributed to the country's debt in almost equal measures.
FAQs
U.S. federal debt forecast FY 2023-2034
What is the forecast for the US national debt? ›
The Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday that the U.S. national debt is poised to top $56 trillion by 2034, as rising spending and interest expenses outpace tax revenues.
What is the projected national debt in 2024? ›
CBO increased its projection of the budget deficit to $1.9 trillion in 2024, with interest payments of $892 billion this year and totaling $13 trillion over following decade. Read our preliminary analysis here.
What is the current US national debt responses? ›
The $34 trillion gross federal debt equals debt held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.
What is expected to happen to the U.S. debt in the future? ›
Under current policies, the debt is expected to climb from around 75 percent of the Gross Domestic Product today to over 120 percent by 2040, and keep growing after that.
Is the US federal debt forecast to reach an all time high in 2029? ›
The Federal Budget
Debt held by the public, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter.
What will the US debt be in 2040? ›
When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?
| Year | CBO | +250 b.p. |
|---|
| 2035 | 120 | 174 |
| 2040 | 134 | 210 |
| 2045 | 150 | 248 |
| 2050 | 169 | 303 |
3 more rowsOct 6, 2023
| Year | National debt in billion U.S. dollars |
|---|
| 2026* | 38,624 |
| 2025* | 36,775 |
| 2024* | 34,825 |
| 2023* | 32,988 |
8 more rowsMay 22, 2024
By then, the debt is projected to surpass $54 trillion. Interest rates have surged to two-decade highs over the past year, making borrowing costs an increasingly significant contributor to the national debt. From 2024 to 2034, the United States will spend more than $12 trillion alone on interest costs.
How fast is the US national debt growing? ›
Debt has risen steadily in recent years, and as of mid-May 2024, the national debt stands at $34.56 trillion. The nation's debt has essentially doubled in just 15 years and represents the impact of accumulated deficit spending. Government debt is financed through issuance of U.S. Treasury bills, notes and bonds.
Top Foreign Owners of US National Debt
- Japan. $1,153.1. 14.37%
- China. $797.7. 9.94%
- United Kingdom. $753.5. 9.39%
- Luxembourg. $376.5. 4.69%
- Canada. $339.8. 4.23%
Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial.
Who does the US owe the most money to? ›
Who does the United States owe the most debt to? As of July 2020, Japan overtook China and became the largest foreign debt collector for the U.S. The United States currently owes Japan about $1.2 trillion according to the U.S. Treasury report.
At what point will US debt become unsustainable? ›
US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years, if it stays on current path. US debt will become unsustainable in roughly 20 years if it doesn't change course, a Penn Wharton Budget Model determined.
How much does China owe the US? ›
Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
| Luxembourg | $318,200,000,000 |
6 more rowsJapan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP.
What will the U.S. national debt be in 10 years? ›
The Congressional Budget Office cited an aging population and health care costs. The federal government's record-high national debt is set to get even bigger, reaching a massive $54 trillion by the year 2034. That's according to a new forecast released Wednesday from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
How much will the US debt be in 2025? ›
| Year | National debt in billion U.S. dollars |
|---|
| 2028* | 42,021 |
| 2027* | 40,243 |
| 2026* | 38,624 |
| 2025* | 36,775 |
8 more rowsMay 22, 2024
How much the government pays in interest depends on the total national debt and the various securities' interest rates . As of May 2024 it costs $728 billion to maintain the debt, which is 16% of the total federal spending in fiscal year 2024. The national debt has increased every year over the past ten years.
At what point is the national debt unsustainable? ›
US debt will become unsustainable in roughly 20 years if it doesn't change course, a Penn Wharton Budget Model determined. After that, no amount of tax hikes or spending cuts could prevent default "whether explicitly or implicitly."
