While Australians will be breathing easy after the Reserve Bank kept interest rates on hold for the fourth consecutive month, some experts are warning there is a chance the economy could fall into recession next year.
A panel of economists questioned by Finder for its RBA Survey have said there is a roughly one-in-three chance that Australia will find itself in a recession in 2024.
The survey placed the risk at 32 per cent.
The survey results come after ABS data revealed the country went into a technical per-capita recession in June on the back of consecutive quarters of falling GDP per capita.
However, the wider economy still seems more likely to avoid the same fate, unless international conditions deteriorate.
"The probability of a recession in the next year is definitely less than 50 per cent," the University of Sydney's James Morley said in the survey.
"However, there are risks from weak growth in China. If the US economy deteriorates, then a recession in mid-2024 is possible (although not the most likely scenario).
"Inflation will likely have dropped further by then, so the RBA would cut if there were enough indicators of recession."
Finder's survey also found property prices are set to keep growing next year, even as millions of Australians fall into mortgage stress and feel the pinch of interest rate rises from the last 18 months.
Perth is expected to experience the biggest price rise of 6 per cent, while Sydney and Brisbane are both predicted to have property prices increase by 5 per cent.
That would see the average price of a home in Sydney reach $1,124,957 by the end of next year.
"The property market is likely to remain fairly well bid in major state capitals because poor supply, along with the higher cost of mortgages, will deter movement/reduce liquidity in the market," Nicholas Frappell from ABC Refinery (Australia) said.
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent today in its first cash rate decision under new governor Michele Bullock.
But she said the bank is open to lifting rates once again if inflation refuses to drop into the target range of 2-3 per cent.
"Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks," Bullock said.
Finder said such a rise could even come in one of the two remaining interest rates meetings this year.
"A fourth consecutive rate hold from the RBA will be welcome news to mortgage holders, many of whom are struggling with higher repayments," head of consumer research Graham Cooke said.
"While homeowners have been given a break, stubborn inflation means we could still see another rate hike before Christmas."
