Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2024)

InsightsInvestment Research

In every recession and timeframe analyzed, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite.

Ryan Diamant and David AndrichOct. 17, 20234-minute read

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Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (1)

Given their recent quarterly earnings, Canadian banks are clearly facing a multitude of challenges. These include slower loan growth, contracting net interest margins, rising provisions for credit losses, and higher capital requirements. What’s more, if a recession does occur, Provisions for Credit Losses (PCLs) could increase even more and further reduce earnings for the sector. However, typically the best time to buy and own banks is during the reserve building phase while valuations are depressed. Once you come through the recession and the banks start to release reserves back into earnings, the strong earnings growth combined with attractive valuations drives strong stock performance.

In other Canadian banking news, we recently saw the sudden departure of Laurentian Bank’s CEO after just three years in the role. The departure followed a strategic review that ended without selling the bank, and a subsequent prolonged technology issue that prevented depositors from accessing their accounts for several days. It isn’t clear which event drove the departure —perhaps it was both — but this is the second CEO in a row to depart Laurentian Bank after a relatively short tenure.

Additionally, RBC Royal Bank recently injected capital into its U.S. subsidiary City National in an effort to lower funding costs and improve profitability in its U.S. business. We view this as a prudent move, but it doesn’t fully offset the pressures U.S. banks continue to face.

Historical performance of Canadian banks in recessions

Bank stocks typically underperform heading into a recession. They act as a proxy for the health of the economy. If the market is looking 18 months into the future, they expect a slowdown in activity from the banks. However, once we’re in a recession, banks typically outperform. The following charts show the returns of Canadian banks during and after recessions along with the start date of every recession over the last 40 years in Canada.

Canadian bank stock performance during 1990s recession — Start date: March 1990

Timeframe S&P/TSX Composite Banks TR Index S&P/TSX Composite TR Index
1 year 9.34 -2.12
2 years 13.72 2.38
3 years 7.76 1.22

Canadian bank stock performance during financial crisis — Start date: October 2008

Canadian bank stock performance during COVID-19 — Start date: March 2020

Timeframe S&P/TSX Composite Banks TR Index S&P/TSX Composite TR Index
1 year 17.75 16.27
2 years 24.53 17.04
3 years 13.24 10.89

The information was prepared by CIBC Asset Management Inc. using third-party service provider Morningstar Direct, as at August 31, 2023.

In every recession and timeframe analyzed, Canadian bank stocks outperformed the broader S&P/TSX Composite Opens in a new window.. Why? Markets are forward-looking and typically anticipate an economic recovery even while a recession is underway.

Canadian banks: A strong long-term investment choice

Despite headwinds, bank fundamentals remain solid. Valuations are now at multi-decade lows with high dividends that pay investors to hold through the cycle. As at August 31, 2023, Canadian Banks pay close to a 5.00% dividend yield, in comparison to a 3.55% dividend yield for the broader Canadian market, and 1.68% for the S&P 500 Index Opens in a new window.. (Indices used as a proxy: Banks — S&P/TSX Banks Index; Canadian market — S&P/TSX Composite.)

Canadian banks are some of the most well-capitalized, safest financial institutions globally, and long-term investors are being paid to hold onto them.

Overall, we maintain ownership of several banks within our portfolios at CIBC Asset Management. Very often, the best time to invest in Canadian banks is in the midst of a recession, and we continue to see medium to long-term strength in the Canadian banking sector (PDF, 215 KB) Opens in a new window..

CIBC Asset Management is committed to providing market and investment insights as well as best-in-class research. We want to help you find the right solutions to guide your investment journey. If you’d like to discuss equity investment opportunities or have questions about your investment portfolio, please reach out to your advisor or CIBC representative any time.

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2)

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Written by

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (3)

Ryan Diamant

Client Portfolio Manager, Equities, CIBC Asset Management

Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (4)

David Andrich, CFA
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Management and Research

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Canadian banks continue to be a long-term opportunity despite recent headwinds (2024)

FAQs

Why Canadian banks don t fail? ›

All Canadian banks are federally chartered (there are no provincially chartered banks like the state-chartered ones in the U.S.) and overseen by federal agencies, like the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OFSI), which can remove bank CEOs violating regulatory requirements.

Why are Canadian banks stable? ›

Are Canadian banks safe? One of the reasons for Canada's financial fortitude is that, from the beginning, the country has featured a system that favours a relatively small number of well-capitalized, well-regulated national banks with many branches.

What are the challenges of banks in Canada? ›

Capital requirements, evolving risks, regulatory changes, technological disruption and macroeconomic volatility continue to complicate Canadian banks' growth agendas as they navigate the early months of 2024. For those looking ahead, there are few signs these deep forces of change will abate any time soon.

What Canadian banks are too big to fail? ›

In March 2013, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions announced that Canada's six largest banks, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank, were too big to fail.

Are Canadian banks safe during recession? ›

Conclusion. In this note, we stress test large banks in Canada to assess their resilience. We find that overall, major banks are strong enough to withstand a severe economic downturn.

Why is the Canadian banking system better than the US? ›

These differences are reflected in various aspects, including regulations, services, and banking options available to consumers and businesses. Canada emphasizes a robust regulatory environment that prioritizes stability, whereas the US banking sector often faces a more fragmented regulatory framework across states.

What is the future of the Canadian banks? ›

Canadian banks expect interest rates to decline in 2024, a shift from the rising rate environment seen in 2023. The banks' expectations for net interest margins/income for 2024 ranged from stable to slight expansion.

What is the most stable bank in Canada? ›

The 11 Most Reputable Banks in Canada
  1. RBC. Unsurprisingly, Canada's Big 5 Banks take the top spots for most reputable banks. ...
  2. TD Bank. TD Bank is the second most reputable bank on the list, with a reputation score of 35. ...
  3. Bank of Montreal (BMO) ...
  4. CIBC. ...
  5. Scotiabank. ...
  6. President's Choice Financial. ...
  7. Tangerine. ...
  8. National Bank of Canada.
May 19, 2024

Is it safe to keep money in Canadian banks? ›

Deposit insurance protects your savings if your financial institution fails. You don't have to apply or pay for deposit insurance. The Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) automatically insures your eligible deposits. This applies to deposits held at CDIC member institutions in Canada.

What is frustrating about Canadian banking? ›

However, the main drawback with having monopoly banks that can maximize profits without taking too much risk is that consumers are left with higher banking fees, lower interest rates on deposits and large management fees on investment products.

How healthy are Canadian banks? ›

Fitch Ratings-Toronto/New York-06 December 2022: Canadian banks' financial profiles will deteriorate in 2023, albeit from an unusually healthy starting point, as an economic slowdown and tighter financial conditions weigh on asset quality, growth prospects and funding mix, according to Fitch Ratings' 2023 outlook ...

Does Canada have a strong banking system? ›

Canada's financial system is one of the safest and strongest in the world. This is due in part to effective financial sector policy, regulation and supervision, liquidity support, deposit insurance, recovery and resolution strategies and consumer protection and financial education.

Are Canadian banks at risk of collapse? ›

Every one of the big banks in Canada is essentially too big to fail, and there are very high odds the federal government would step in and rescue any of them, if needed, to prevent a failure, says Alfred Lehar, an associate professor with the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business.

Is TD Bank safe from collapse? ›

With roughly $1.26 trillion in assets, TD Bank would certainly be considered too big to fail, and many believe the large banks are set to benefit from this recent banking crisis because they're likely to be seen as a safe place to transfer funds into.

What is the most successful bank in Canada? ›

Overview. In modern history, Royal Bank (RBC) has always been the largest by a significant margin, although TD Bank has caught up to RBC in recent years. Up to the late 1990s, CIBC was the second largest, followed by Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, and TD Bank.

Why are Canadian banks so secure? ›

Stringent regulations: Canada has a strong regulatory framework that requires banks to maintain high levels of capital and liquidity. This helps to ensure that banks can absorb losses and continue to operate even in difficult economic conditions.

Can the Bank of Canada lose money? ›

To provide the Bank the capacity to manage its losses, the government has implemented legislative amendments that allows the Bank to temporarily retain net income, rather than remitting it to the Government of Canada. This allows the Bank to use its future income to offset its accumulated losses.

Are Canadian banks reliable? ›

Canadian banks are very secure, especially with the protection of the CDIC. It's important to know that the CDIC doesn't just insure $100,000 per client, it's per account. The types of accounts they insure are: Savings accounts.

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