California housing affordability shrinks in first-quarter 2022 as home prices set record highs and interest rates rise, C.A.R. reports (2024)

  • Twenty-four percent of California households could afford to purchase the $797,000 median-priced home in the first quarter of 2022, down from 25 percent in fourth-quarter 2021 and down from 27 percent in first-quarter 2021.
  • A minimum annual income of $158,000 was needed to make monthly payments of $3,950, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 3.97 percent interest rate.
  • Thirty-two percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $640,000 median-priced condo or townhome. A minimum annual income of $126,800 was required to make a monthly payment of $3,170.
  • Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/Q1-2022-HAI

LOS ANGELES, May 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- As California's median home price set a new high in March and interest rates reached their highest levels in more than two years, the housing affordability outlook for Californians was diminished in the first quarter of 2022, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®(C.A.R.) said today.

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The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in first-quarter 2022 ticked down to 24 percent from 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and was down from 27 percent in the first quarter of 2021, according to C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The first-quarter 2022 figure is less than half of the affordability index peak of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

C.A.R.'s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

A minimum annual income of $158,000 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $797,000 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the first quarter of 2022. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $3,950, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 3.97 percent. The effective composite interest rate was 3.28 percent in fourth-quarter 2021 and 3.08 percent in first-quarter 2021.

With the median price of condominiums and townhomes reaching another record high in first-quarter 2022, affordability for condos and townhomes dropped from the previous quarter. Thirty-two percent of California households earned the minimum income to qualify for thepurchase of a $640,000 median-priced condo/townhome in the first quarter of 2022, which required an annual income of $126,800 to make monthly payments of $3,170. The first quarter 2022 figure was down from 40 percent a year ago.

Compared with California, nearly half of the nation's households could afford to purchase a $368,200 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $73,200 to make monthly payments of $1,830. Nationwide affordability was down from 54 percent a year ago.

Key points from the first-quarter 2022 Housing Affordability report include:

  • Compared to the previous quarter, housing affordability in the first quarter of 2022 declined in all but two of 51 counties. Affordability was improved in Mendocino County and remained unchanged in Humboldt County.
  • In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, affordability declined from the previous quarter in all counties. Alameda County was the least affordable Bay Area county, at just 17 percent of households able to purchase the $1,370,500 median-priced home. Thirty-seven percent of Solano County households could afford the $600,000 median-priced home, making it the most affordable Bay Area county.
  • In the Southern California region, housing affordability deteriorated in all counties. Orange County was the least affordable at 13 percent, while San Bernardino County was the most affordable at 39 percent of households able to purchase the $460,000 median-priced home.
  • In the Central Valley region, Kings County was the most affordable at 51 percent, and San Benito was the least affordable at 24 percent.
  • In the Central Coast region, Santa Barbara County was the least affordable at 12 percent, and San Luis Obispo County was the most affordable at 18 percent.
  • For the state as a whole, Lassen (61 percent) remained the most affordable county in California in the first quarter of 2022, followed by Kings (51 percent), Shasta (42 percent) and Siskiyou (42 percent). Lassen also required the lowest minimum qualifying income ($48,400) of all counties in California to purchase a median-priced home.
  • Mono (7 percent), Santa Barbara (12 percent), Santa Cruz (13 percent) and Orange (13 percent) were the least affordable counties in the state, with each of them requiring at least a minimum income of $205,600 to purchase a median-priced home in the county. San Mateo had the highest minimum qualifying income to buy a median-priced home in first-quarter 2022, surpassing the $400,000 benchmark for the first time and reaching a record high at $435,200. Three other counties in California that also had a minimum qualifying income of over $300,000 in first-quarter 2022 were Santa Clara ($371,600), San Francisco ($366,800), and Marin ($329,200).
  • Housing affordability declined the most on a year-over-year basis in Yuba, dropping 12 points from the previous year. Four other counties that also recorded double-digit annual drops include Plumas (-11 points), Tuolumne (-11 points), Tehama (-10 points), and Yolo (-10 points). Higher interest rates and home price surges from a year ago were primary factors that led to the drop in affordability in these counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 217,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Traditional Housing Affordability Index
First quarter 2022


First Quarter 2022

C.A.R. Traditional Housing Affordability Index

STATE/REGION/COUNTY

Qtr. 1

2022

Qtr. 4
2021


Qtr. 1

2021


Median
Home
Price

Monthly
Payment
Including
Taxes &
Insurance

Minimum
Qualifying
Income

Calif. Single-family home

24

25


27


$797,000

$3,950

$158,000

Calif. Condo/Townhome

32

36


40


$640,000

$3,170

$126,800

Los Angeles Metro Area

24

26


29


$736,000

$3,650

$146,000

Inland Empire

31

35


39


$560,000

$2,780

$111,200

San Francisco Bay Area

20

23


23


$1,350,000

$6,690

$267,600

United States

47

51

r

54


$368,200

$1,830

$73,200










San Francisco Bay Area









Alameda

17

20


22


$1,370,500

$6,790

$271,600

Contra Costa

30

33


32


$910,000

$4,510

$180,400

Marin

21

23


22


$1,660,000

$8,230

$329,200

Napa

20

24


24


$965,000

$4,780

$191,200

San Francisco

20

21


20


$1,850,000

$9,170

$366,800

San Mateo

18

19


19


$2,195,000

$10,880

$435,200

Santa Clara

20

22


22


$1,875,000

$9,290

$371,600

Solano

37

42


44


$600,000

$2,970

$118,800

Sonoma

23

28


27


$825,000

$4,090

$163,600

Southern California









Los Angeles

20

21


24


$792,470

$3,930

$157,200

Orange

13

17


20


$1,260,000

$6,250

$250,000

Riverside

28

32


36


$607,000

$3,010

$120,400

San Bernardino

39

42


45


$460,000

$2,280

$91,200

San Diego

19

23


25


$905,000

$4,490

$179,600

Ventura

21

24


27


$882,070

$4,370

$174,800

Central Coast









Monterey

16

19


17


$885,000

$4,390

$175,600

San Luis Obispo

18

22


25


$852,250

$4,220

$168,800

Santa Barbara

12

20


14


$1,130,000

$5,600

$224,000

Santa Cruz

13

17


18


$1,425,000

$7,060

$282,400

Central Valley









Fresno

37

40


46


$405,000

$2,010

$80,400

Glenn

36

43


44


$360,000

$1,780

$71,200

Kern

38

43


47


$370,000

$1,830

$73,200

Kings

51

54


58


$325,000

$1,610

$64,400

Madera

38

42


46


$415,000

$2,060

$82,400

Merced

40

45


46


$390,000

$1,930

$77,200

Placer

34

39


39


$685,000

$3,400

$136,000

Sacramento

34

39


41


$545,000

$2,700

$108,000

San Benito

24

27


31


$847,500

$4,200

$168,000

San Joaquin

34

38


42


$520,000

$2,580

$103,200

Stanislaus

36

40


44


$460,000

$2,280

$91,200

Tulare

41

44


47


$343,460

$1,700

$68,000

Far North









Butte

33

35


37


$450,000

$2,230

$89,200

Lassen

61

63


62


$245,000

$1,210

$48,400

Plumas

36

39


47


$430,000

$2,130

$85,200

Shasta

42

45


48


$380,000

$1,880

$75,200

Siskiyou

42

44


49


$310,000

$1,540

$61,600

Tehama

35

40


46


$355,000

$1,760

$70,400

Other Calif. Counties









Amador

40

43


44


$425,000

$2,110

$84,400

Calaveras

35

40


41


$489,500

$2,430

$97,200

Del Norte

32

39


36


$390,000

$1,930

$77,200

El Dorado

29

37


36


$706,820

$3,500

$140,000

Humboldt

30

30


39


$430,000

$2,130

$85,200

Lake

38

43


46


$354,000

$1,750

$70,000

Mariposa

29

30


37


$442,500

$2,190

$87,600

Mendocino

24

22


27


$503,000

$2,490

$99,600

Mono

7

13


3


$1,037,500

$5,140

$205,600

Nevada

33

37


37


$550,000

$2,730

$109,200

Sutter

39

41


45


$426,000

$2,110

$84,400

Tuolumne

38

45


49


$429,500

$2,130

$85,200

Yolo

28

33


38


$630,000

$3,120

$124,800

Yuba

33

36


45


$430,000

$2,130

$85,200

r = revised

Traditional Housing Affordability Indices (HAI) were calculated based on the following effective composite interest rates: 3.97% (1Qtr. 2022), 3.28% (4Qtr. 2021) and 3.08% (1Qtr. 2021).

SOURCE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

California housing affordability shrinks in first-quarter 2022 as home prices set record highs and interest rates rise, C.A.R. reports (3)

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California housing affordability shrinks in first-quarter 2022 as home prices set record highs and interest rates rise, C.A.R. reports (2024)

FAQs

Why is housing so unaffordable in California? ›

“But affordability is disappearing in high-income nations as housing costs now far outpace income growth.” As for what's driving the crisis, the report blamed land use policies that “artificially restrict housing supply” and drive up land prices.

Will home prices drop in 2024 in California? ›

Experts suggest there may be some moderation in price growth, but it is unlikely that we will see broad declines in the California real estate market. Compared with previous cycles, 2024 shows similar trends around tight inventory and high demand.

What is the affordability of a house in California? ›

Affordability depends on both the costs of the housing, as well as the income and/or wages of households. Annual household income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a mid-tier California home in March 2024 was about $235,000—over 2 times the median California household income in 2022 ($85,300).

What is the future of the housing market in California? ›

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) predicts a modest increase of 6.2% in the median home price for 2024, reaching $860,300. However, long-term forecasts for the next five years are more nuanced.

Why is California so overpriced? ›

Housing, transportation, food, utilities and taxes are the biggest factors driving the state's higher cost of living. Lack of affordable housing is one of the state's most pressing challenges.

What state has the most unaffordable housing? ›

In fact, four of the 11 most unaffordable housing markets in the English-speaking world are in California — and seven are in the US and Canada, a new study has found.

How much income do you need to buy a $650 000 house in California? ›

To afford a $650,000 house, you typically need an annual income between $160,000 to $215,000, depending on your financial situation, down payment, credit score, and current market conditions. However, this is a general range, and your specific circ*mstances will determine the exact income required.

How much do you need to make to afford a 800k house in California? ›

To comfortably afford an $800,000 house, you'll likely need an annual income between $220,000 to $260,000, depending on your specific financial situation and the terms of your mortgage. Remember, just because you can qualify for a loan doesn't mean you should stretch your budget to the maximum.

Where is the most affordable housing in California? ›

Bakersfield

Bakersfield is one of the cheapest place to rent in California with an average home rent of $1,894. It also offers affordable healthcare, which is 8% lower than the state average. This Central Valley hub is also known for its booming agricultural industry and unique Basque culinary scene.

Should I buy a house now or wait for a recession? ›

If your credit score is strong, your employment is stable and you have enough savings to cover a down payment and closing costs, buying now might still be smart. If your personal finances are not ideal at the moment, or if home values in your area are on the decline, it might be better to wait.

Who is buying homes in California? ›

At least two-thirds of the buyers with down payments of at least 30% aren't investors but people who want to live in the home, he said. They are professionals such as architects and Hollywood types who have saved, liquidated stock portfolios, built up equity or received help from family.

Are houses getting cheaper in California? ›

California Association of Realtors' latest report reveals single-family home sales across the state stayed flat for December 2023, while being down 7.1% from Dec 2022. The statewide median price for houses fell . 3% from November, yet is still up 4.3% from 12 months ago. Home prices follow normal seasonal pattern.

Why does California not have affordable housing? ›

Land use and zoning policies that exclude affordable housing and create racial, economic, and housing segregation; High costs of living, inadequate wages, and wealth and income inequality; A safety net that does not provide sufficient housing or supportive services.

Why is it so expensive to rent in California? ›

The Role of California's Housing Shortage

This shortage has led to intense competition for available rental units, giving landlords the upper hand in pricing their properties. As demand continues to outstrip supply, rents have naturally inclined upwards.

How to fix California housing crisis? ›

Key affordable housing strategies in the Roadmap Home include expanding state affordable housing rental and homeownership programs, permanently expanding the state Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program, providing funding to local jurisdictions, and allowing denser development in high-opportunity areas for affordable ...

Which state has the biggest housing crisis? ›

Home values and rents in California are among the most expensive in the nation, and the state has one of the highest rates of homelessness. Californians are increasingly concerned about these issues, with more than a third saying they've considered leaving the state due to housing costs.

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