BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (2024)

BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (1)

BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (2)

Bank Of Canada Cbdc And Banking Choices

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The 39% impact to bank deposits shown above is considered a "mistake" and an overestimate. This is what banks do all the time to stir fear of CBDC disruption!

”Under this extensive network design, if we misspecify the model by neglecting the complementarity between deposits and other financial products, we would significantly overestimate the impact of a CBDC and conclude incorrectly that a CBDC can crowd out 39% of bank deposits. Therefore, it is crucial to account for these two differentiating factors when quantifying the effects of the CBDC on bank deposits.”

Once again, the bank-promoted myth that CBDCs will cause massive disruption to the banking system is BUSTED!

This time, The Bank of Canada (BoC) uses a model to show that CBDCs will not disrupt bank deposits significantly.

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Banks argue that CBDCs will take massive amounts of bank deposits and destabilize the banking system. While it is true that CBDCs will “disintermediate” deposits, the question is how much?

The BoCs model shows that with 12% of deposits impacted, it is far from the fatal blow that banks predict.

See my article on for more on “myth busting” banks absurd claims about the digital euro last week

MYTH BUSTING: No the Digital Euro Won't Reduce The EU's GDPRich Turrin·Feb 5Read full story

👉TAKEAWAYS

The BoC model takes into account three critical components:

  1. That banks provide financial products that are complementary to deposits, which cannot be provided by the central bank.

    This is the CRITICAL FACTOR not included in most analyses!! Your bank provides you with mortgages and other services that attract deposits that are immune to CBDC.

  2. That consumers value physical service locations.

  3. CBDC holding limits which effectively limit takeup.

Results:

  1. The impact of a CBDC is much lower after taking into account that households enjoy the complementarity between deposits and other financial products within the same bank, which gives banks a competitive advantage over the CBDC.

  2. The impact of a CBDC depends crucially on its service location network. A CBDC that has no service location can barely gain any traction.

  3. A CBDC that uses Canada Post offices as service locations would lead to a take-up that is similar to the market share of cash and benefits rural households more than a CBDC that uses bank branches as service locations.

  4. Banks with larger market shares tend to respond more to the CBDC and hence retain more deposits.

  5. We find that while a holding limit can significantly reduce the take-up of the CBDC, its effect on consumer surplus is relatively smaller.

BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (4)

Percentage change in deposits for banks is 12.3% for a non interest bearing CBDC! This is not the disaster that banks regularly predict! This is without CBDC holding limits. The paper estimates that a CAD 25,000 holding limit would reduce this figure by half!

👊STRAIGHT TALK👊

Once again, the myth that CBDC will disrupt bank deposits is busted.

In the worst-case scenario where the paper shows bank deposits were disrupted by some 39%, this ONLY occurs when the model does not factor in banks’ complementary services.

This is an unreasonable expectation. People stick with banks due to many other financial services beyond cash management, and this provides the glue that will limit CBDC adoption.

Now, for those in the banking world who say that this is just a model, you can examine the uptake of WeChat and Alipay in China, which had a net impact on bank deposits of around 3% (from my book Cashless).

So once again, I’ll say it: banks are terrified of CBDC and will do and say anything to stop or slow adoption.

Don’t fall for it!

BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (5)
BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (6)

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BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (7)

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BUSTED: Bank of Canada shows CBDC will not kill banks (2024)

FAQs

Will CBDC hurt banks? ›

CBDC remuneration. A CBDC can lead to bank disintermediation if its interest rate is high enough, but a non-interest-bearing CBDC, or a CBDC with a rate that is low, might have insignificant effects on bank intermediation.

Are Canadian banks in danger of failing? ›

Thankfully, experts say Canadian banks are significantly less vulnerable to failure than our neighbours' to the south, for many reasons, and your money in a Canadian bank will continue to be safe.

What happens to my money if a bank goes bust Canada? ›

The Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. (CDIC), a federal Crown corporation, insures savings in most Canadian banks and reimburses depositors in the event of insolvency.

Will CBDC replace cash? ›

This type of money is known as a central bank digital currency (CBDC). It would not replace cash.

Is the United States going to switch to digital currency? ›

Is the US Going to Digital Dollar? As of June 2024, the US Federal Reserve has not decided to transition to a CBDC or supplement its existing monetary system with one. It is researching the effects a CBDC would have on the dollar, the US, and the global economy.

What happens if the US dollar goes digital? ›

Challenges with digital dollar status

The technology would, therefore, eliminate anonymous or under-the-table transactions. While this could help deter tax evaders, it also has the potential to give the government unprecedented visibility into American citizens' everyday purchases.

How safe are Canadian banks right now? ›

How safe is the money in your Canadian bank accounts? According to Wikipedia, there have been 43 bank failures since 1967, and none since 1996. So the answer is, very safe.

Why is the Canadian banking system better than the US? ›

These differences are reflected in various aspects, including regulations, services, and banking options available to consumers and businesses. Canada emphasizes a robust regulatory environment that prioritizes stability, whereas the US banking sector often faces a more fragmented regulatory framework across states.

Which bank is too big to fail in Canada? ›

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and TD Bank remain Canada's only members on the list of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), which defines banks considered “too big to fail” by regulators. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published its G-SIB list for 2020 on Nov. 11.

Can banks seize your money if the economy fails? ›

Your money is safe in a bank, even during an economic decline like a recession. Up to $250,000 per depositor, per account ownership category, is protected by the FDIC or NCUA at a federally insured financial institution.

Do you get your money if a bank collapses? ›

If your bank closes, the FDIC will either try to move your money to another bank in good standing or mail you a check for up to the insured amount. If it doesn't move your money, the bank should mail you a check within two business days of closing.

Can the government take money from your bank account in a crisis? ›

The government generally can't take money out of your bank account unless you have an unpaid tax bill (and before they go to that extreme, they will send you several notifications and offer you multiple opportunities to pay your outstanding taxes).

What currency will replace the US dollar? ›

Instead of replacing US dollars with the currencies of the world's largest economies, like China's renminbi and the EU's euro, central bankers are holding more currencies from smaller economies with a strong credit rating. These include the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the South Korean won.

Will the US become a cashless society? ›

Similar rates have been recorded across other Scandinavian nations, while Hong Kong predicts cash will account for only 1.6% of point-of-sale (POS) transactions by 2024. But despite this global shift away from tangible currency, the US isn't likely to transition officially any time soon.

Is the United States getting new currency? ›

The Federal Reserve will spend $931.4 million to print bills in 2023 — but there's a problem with U.S. cash. “We haven't modernized or changed our currency. That's probably a mistake,” Aaron Klein, senior fellow of economic studies at Brookings Institute, told CNBC.

What does CBDC mean for banks? ›

A central bank digital currency (CBDC) is a digital version of a country's central bank money or fiat currency. Fiat money is not tied to a physical commodity such as gold or silver. The role of a central bank is to support financial services, set monetary policy and issue currency.

Will credit unions be affected by CBDC? ›

The adoption of CBDC increased/change regulatory oversight for credit unions. The Federal Reserve will require credit unions to comply with new regulations and reporting requirements related to CBDC transactions. This results in increased compliance costs for credit unions.

What are the consequences of CBDC? ›

However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential adverse effects on financial stability.

Which banks are allowed in CBDC? ›

India's Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the Digital Rupee
Pilot BanksName of the App
HDFC BankHDFC Bank Digital Rupee
Union Bank of IndiaDigital Rupee By UBI
Bank of BarodaBank of Baroda Digital Rupee
Kotak Mahindra BankDigital Rupee by Kotak Bank
9 more rows

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