Bond Market Outlook: Improving Returns | Morgan Stanley (2024)

Sources:

1 FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis as of 12/29/2023.

2Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Disclosures:

The market returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices. The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Indexis an unmanaged index of domestic investment-grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. "Bloomberg®" and the Bloomberg Index/Indices used are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MSIM; does not approve, endorse, review or recommend any product; and does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy or completeness of any data or information relating to any product.

Risk Considerations: Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss. Fixed income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the particular strategy may include securities that may not necessarily track the performance of a particular index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required. For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circ*mstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”) and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circ*mstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

This material is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research material or a recommendation.

The Firm has not authorised financial intermediaries to use and to distribute this material, unless such use and distribution is made in accordance with applicable law and regulation. Additionally, financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this material is appropriate for any person to whom they provide this material in view of that person’s circ*mstances and purpose. The Firm shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this material by any such financial intermediary.

This material may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this material in another language, the English version shall prevail.

The whole or any part of this material may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without the Firm’s express written consent. This material may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright and other applicable law.

Eaton Vance is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

DISTRIBUTION

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MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services. Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates. MSIM’s affiliates are: Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited, Eaton Vance Advisers International Ltd, Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.

This material has been issued by any one or more of the following entities:

EMEA:

This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only.

In the EU, MSIM and Eaton Vance materials are issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited (“FMIL”). FMIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at 24-26 City Quay, Dublin 2, D02 NY 19, Ireland.

Outside the EU, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (MSIM Ltd) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.

In Switzerland, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London (Zurich Branch) Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Outside the US and EU, Eaton Vance materials are issued by Eaton Vance Management (International) Limited (“EVMI”) 125 Old Broad Street, London, EC2N 1AR, UK, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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MIDDLE EAST

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This document relates to a financial product which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any documents in connection with this financial product. Accordingly, the DFSA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document, and has no responsibility for it. The financial product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on its resale or transfer. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on the financial product. If you do not understand the contents of this document, you should consult an authorised financial adviser.

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ASIA PACIFIC

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For professional investors, this document is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this document is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”). This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions. All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This document is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: The Japan Securities Dealers Association, the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.

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Bond Market Outlook: Improving Returns | Morgan Stanley (2024)

FAQs

What is Morgan Stanley's forecast for 2024? ›

Morgan Stanley economists anticipate U.S. growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, compared with 2.5% in 2023. Year-over-year growth is likely to moderate toward the end of 2024 with fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.1%, compared with 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Are bonds still a good investment in 2024? ›

Positive Signals for Future Returns

At the beginning of 2024, bond yields, the rate of return they generate for investors, were near post-financial crisis highs1—and for fixed-income, yields have historically served as a good proxy for future returns.

What is the market outlook for 2024? ›

Fed Projections

In its latest long-term economic projections released in December, the Federal Open Market Committee projects core PCE inflation of 2.4% and GDP growth of 1.4% in 2024. FOMC members also anticipate just three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.

What happens when bond yields rise? ›

Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.

What is the best investment in 2024? ›

Overview: Best investments in 2024
  1. High-yield savings accounts. Overview: A high-yield online savings account pays you interest on your cash balance. ...
  2. Long-term certificates of deposit. ...
  3. Long-term corporate bond funds. ...
  4. Dividend stock funds. ...
  5. Value stock funds. ...
  6. Small-cap stock funds. ...
  7. REIT index funds.

What sectors will outperform in 2024? ›

In 2024, that means communication services, information technology and financials, as the best performers, are on their way to good things for the remaining 10 months. Meanwhile, the tail-end trio that will keep on with their losing ways are materials, utilities and real estate.

What is the bond forecast for the next 5 years? ›

The United States 5 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 5.256% by the end of September 2024. Video Player is loading. It would mean an increase of 60.7 bp, if compared to last quotation (4.649%, last update 29 May 2024 17:15 GMT+0).

What is the projected I bond rate in May 2024? ›

May 1, 2024. Series EE savings bonds issued May 2024 through October 2024 will earn an annual fixed rate of 2.70% and Series I savings bonds will earn a composite rate of 4.28%, a portion of which is indexed to inflation every six months. The EE bond fixed rate applies to a bond's 20-year original maturity.

Is it a good time to buy bonds now? ›

Answer: Now may be the perfect time to invest in bonds. Yields are at levels you could only dream of 15 years ago, so you'd be locking in substantial, regular income. And, of course, bonds act as a diversifier to your stock portfolio.

Will 2024 be a good year for the stock market? ›

Looking ahead to second quarter reports, analysts are calling for: S&P 500 earnings to increase 9.3% compared to a year ago. S&P 500 earnings growth to accelerate in the second half of the year. Full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.4% in 2024.

Will 2024 be a better year to buy? ›

In general, most of 2024 will be tough for homebuyers due to high home prices and high mortgage rates. But if rates drop later this year, tough conditions should ease a bit.

Should I pull my money out of the stock market? ›

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

Will bonds recover in 2024? ›

As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.

Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity? ›

After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.

Should I buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market. If your goal for investing in bonds is to reduce portfolio risk and volatility, it's best not to wait.

What is the outlook for JPMorgan in 2024? ›

Our outlook for the new year is “2024”: 2% growth, 0 recessions, 2% inflation and 4% unemployment. A soft landing remains in reach, particularly as disinflation looks set to continue and the Federal Reserve now appears satisfied with its progress.

What is the outlook for investment banking in 2024? ›

On the back of expectations for a recovery in M&A and ECM activity and more DCM deals, IB firms have started responding positively and expect modest growth in 2024. We expect an increase in restructuring activity, especially in sectors such as commercial real estate, technology and consumer.

What is the future price of Morgan Stanley? ›

MS Stock 12 Month Forecast

Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Morgan Stanley in the last 3 months. The average price target is $102.40 with a high forecast of $118.00 and a low forecast of $89.00. The average price target represents a 5.32% change from the last price of $97.23.

What is the long-term forecast for Morgan Stanley stock price? ›

Morgan Stanley stock price stood at $97.83

According to the latest long-term forecast, Morgan Stanley price will hit $110 by the end of 2024 and then $125 by the middle of 2026. Morgan Stanley will rise to $150 within the year of 2027, $200 in 2030 and $250 in 2034.

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