Bond Market Crash: What It Is and How to Prepare - NerdWallet (2024)

What is a bond market crash?

The bond market comprises corporate and government debt. A rapid decline in bond prices signals a bond market crash. Bonds play a significant role in the global economy. The bond market was about 25% bigger than the equity market in 2022. So, if the bond market declines or crashes, your investment account will likely feel it in some way. This can be especially concerning for investors with portfolios heavily weighted toward bonds, such as those in or near retirement.

Why did the Treasury bond market crash in 2022 and 2023?

Interest rates and the price of bonds have an inverse relationship. As interest rates go up, the market value (price) of bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it can cause the bond market to crash. This happens because new bonds offer higher interest rates than previously issued bonds, and that pushes the prices of older bonds down in the secondary market. For bondholders, this is known as interest rate risk. Rising interest rates in 2022 triggered the Treasury bond market crash that played a significant role in the collapse and sell-off of Silicon Valley Bank in early 2023.

However, if you hold a high-quality bond for its entire duration, you should still receive your initial investment back upon maturity. Interest rate risk most significantly affects bondholders who sell bonds before maturity, especially bonds of longer duration.

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Important bond market terms

Key terms

Definitions

Annual coupon payment

The total investment interest payment over one year.

Coupon payment frequency

How often investment interest payments are made.

Discount price

The price of the bond if it falls below face value.

Face value

The price of the bond if held to maturity.

Interest rate

The amount a lender charges a borrower to loan them money.

Price

What investors will pay for a bond, which is affected by the economic environment.

Years to maturity

Length of time to bond maturity.

Yield to maturity

The total investment return if a bond is held to maturity.

Is another Treasury bond crash imminent?

That’s unclear. Lindsey Young, a certified financial planner based in Baltimore, Maryland, reminds us that the last couple of years have been unusually bad for bonds.

“2022 was actually the worst bond market in the last hundred years,” says Young. “Bonds also performed relatively poorly during the first nine months of 2023 before rallying at the end of the year.”

Even though further interest rate hikes remain unlikely, the continued high interest rate environment wasn’t good news for bondholders. In January 2024, the Fed communicated its intent to focus on reduced inflation before bringing rates down. Lowering the federal funds rate is factor that would alleviate the downward pressure on bond prices.

Bond risks

Bonds are generally considered a less-risky complement to the volatility of stocks in an investment portfolio. U.S. Treasurys, and specifically Treasury bills and Treasury notes, are the benchmark for a nearly risk-free investment if held to maturity. As a result, people often look to the 10-year Treasury yield as a barometer of the economy.

But that doesn’t mean that investing in Treasurys or bonds doesn’t come with risks — such as interest rate risk — especially if you plan to sell before the bond's maturity. That’s because bonds are still highly affected by interest rates and the broader economy.

How to prepare for a bond crash

Diversify

Economic shocks are temporary and often unavoidable. Regardless, spreading your investment dollars across different types of investments by diversifying can help reduce the risks associated with any one asset. Owning different types of bonds and bonds of varying durations can also help reduce exposure to interest rate risk.

Buying many bonds bundled together in bond funds is one strategy for quickly and inexpensively diversifying your bond portfolio. For example, short-term bond funds are less likely to be affected by interest rate risk because interest rates typically increase or decrease slowly over months and years. In bonds with shorter durations, there’s simply less time for interest rate risk to take hold.

Long-term investors more than five years away from their goal:

It’s hard (or impossible) to predict a crash. But you can prepare your mindset for how to respond when it happens. Try to avoid selling when the market is down if you can. Remember, when you sell, you lock in your losses. A bond market crash won’t last forever, and you don’t want to lose out when the market rebounds.

Short-term investors nearing their money goal:

Bond crashes can significantly impact investors close to their money goal, such as someone approaching retirement. One financial strategy is to hold a portion of the money you need short-term in investments less likely to be affected by interest rate risk, such as money market funds, high-interest savings accounts, CDs and short-term bond funds.

Next steps

  • 5 Best Low-Risk Investment Options Right Now

  • Best Short-Term Investments

  • How to Buy Bonds

  • Best Brokers for Bonds

Bond Market Crash: What It Is and How to Prepare - NerdWallet (2024)

FAQs

What to do when the bond market crashes? ›

One financial strategy is to hold a portion of the money you need short-term in investments less likely to be affected by interest rate risk, such as money market funds, high-interest savings accounts, CDs and short-term bond funds.

Are bond funds safe in a market crash? ›

Yes, you can lose money investing in bonds if the bond issuer defaults on the loan or if you sell the bond for less than you bought it for. Are bonds safe if the market crashes? Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits.

How do you prepare for the next market crash? ›

What to do during a stock market crash
  1. Know what you own — and why. A fear-driven reaction to a temporary slump isn't a good reason to dump an investment. ...
  2. Trust in diversification. ...
  3. Consider buying the dip. ...
  4. Think about getting a second opinion. ...
  5. Focus on the long term. ...
  6. Take advantage where you can.
Sep 4, 2024

What is the bond market for dummies? ›

A bond is a loan to a company or government that pays a fixed rate of return. Investors buy and sell bonds and other debt securities in the bond market. Securities are tradable assets, and debt securities include tradable debt with set terms between the borrower and lender, such as Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Where is the safest place to put your money during a recession? ›

Where to put money during a recession. Putting money in savings accounts, money market accounts, and CDs keeps your money safe in an FDIC-insured bank account (or NCUA-insured credit union account). Alternatively, invest in the stock market with a broker.

Where to put money before market crash? ›

The bonds that do best in a market crash are government bonds such as U.S. Treasuries. Riskier bonds like junk bonds and high-yield credit do not fare as well.

What is the safest fund during a market crash? ›

Treasury Bonds

Treasurys, says Collins, are similar to government and corporate bonds, as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. They are typically seen as safe investments during a recession.

Is it possible to lose money in the bond market? ›

You can lose money on a bond if you sell it before the maturity date for less than you paid or if the issuer defaults on their payments. Before you invest. Often… + read full definition , understand the risks.

What to buy when the market crashes? ›

Fixed Income and Treasurys

Treasurys are considered virtually risk-free because they're backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Here's why they're valuable during market crashes: Low risk: Treasurys have minimal default risk, making them a reliable safe haven.

Should I take money out before market crash? ›

Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.

What is the best asset to hold in a depression? ›

Cash, large-cap stocks and gold can be good investments during a recession. Stocks with sensitive prices and cryptocurrencies can be unstable during a recession.

Can I lose my IRA if the market crashes? ›

It is possible to lose money in a Roth IRA depending on the investments chosen. Roth IRAs are not 100% safe, but they offer the potential for growth over time. Market fluctuations and early withdrawal penalties can cause a Roth IRA to lose money.

Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise? ›

Most bond investors are in it for the long haul, meaning for the term of the bond, but there are several good reasons for selling bonds before they mature. They include: Selling bonds because interest rates are about to increase, making your existing bonds less valuable.

Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity? ›

TAKEAWAYS: Not losing money by holding a bond until maturity is an illusion. The economic impact of market rate changes still impacts investors holding bonds until maturity. A bond index fund provides an investor with greater diversification and less risk.

Are bonds a good investment in 2024? ›

Investment advisers say now is a fine time for bonds. They are a good investment in 2024, experts say, for the same reasons they felt like a bad investment in 2022. That year, the Federal Reserve embarked on a dramatic campaign of interest-rate hikes in response to inflation, which reached a 40-year high.

Can the bond market recover? ›

Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.

What happens if bond prices fall? ›

So, when the bond price drops, its yield increases, making it competitive against newer bonds paying higher rates. In short, bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. Here are two scenarios of investors buying bonds with the same par value but different interest rates.

Are T bills safe if the market crashes? ›

In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment. This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. 1 That means the Federal Reserve.

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