Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Period: January 1985 - August 2024 (~40 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 August 2024
Live Update: Sep 13 2024
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD

(Change Settings)

1.00$

Initial Capital
September 1994

10.40$

Final Capital
August 2024

8.12%

Yearly Return

12.46

Std Deviation

-44.08%

Max Drawdown

42 months

Recovery Period

1.00$

Initial Capital
January 1985

40.16$

Final Capital
August 2024

9.76%

Yearly Return

12.38

Std Deviation

-44.08%

Max Drawdown

42 months

Recovery Period

Live update: September 2024 (USD)

0.50%

1 day - Sep 13 2024

-0.25%

Month - September 2024

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be implemented with 4 ETFs. This portfolio has a very high risk, meaning it can experience significant fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a high risk tolerance who are seeking substantial returns and can withstand large drawdowns.

The asset allocation is the following: 80% on the Stock Market, 20% on Fixed Income, 0% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 20% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as very high risk.

As of August 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio obtained a 8.12% compound annual return, with a 12.46% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -44.08% that required 42 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

Table of contents

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (1)

The first official book of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2)

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

80% Stocks

20% Fixed Income

0% Commodities


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The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF NameInvestment Themes (Orig.Currency)
50.00

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock MarketEquity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
30.00

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-USEquity, Global ex-US, Large Cap (USD)
10.00

TIP

USDiShares TIPS BondBond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
10.00

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond MarketBond, U.S., All-Term (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Aug 31, 2024

The Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

September 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the original asset allocation.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 August 2024 (~40 years)

Live Update: Sep 13 2024

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Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of Aug 31, 2024
1 DayTime ET(*)Sep 2024YTD
(8M)
1M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~40Y)
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio0.50-0.2513.092.089.3119.8310.198.038.129.76
US Inflation Adjusted return11.151.898.2416.815.775.055.466.78
Components

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market0.70Sep 13 2024-0.4218.182.1310.9926.1915.1212.3210.5311.39

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US0.31Sep 13 2024-1.2311.142.589.5418.027.924.734.967.91

TIP

USDiShares TIPS Bond0.34Sep 13 20241.473.300.804.055.901.561.805.276.71

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond Market0.21Sep 13 20241.763.241.454.837.33-0.091.604.405.75
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Aug 2024. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.59% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2023, the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio granted a 2.63% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

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Capital Growth as of Aug 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, from September 1994 to August 2024, would be worth 10.40$, with a total return of 939.63% (8.12% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 4.93$, with a net total return of 393.14% (5.46% annualized).


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An investment of 1$, from January 1985 to August 2024, would be worth 40.16$, with a total return of 3915.69% (9.76% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 13.49$, with a net total return of 1248.70% (6.78% annualized).


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Portfolio Metrics as of Aug 31, 2024

Metrics of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio, updated as of 31 August 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 August 2024 (~40 years)

Swipe left to see all data

Metrics as of Aug 31, 2024
YTD
(8M)
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~40Y)
Investment Return (%) 13.092.085.869.3119.834.2810.198.038.208.129.76
Growth of 1$1.131.021.061.091.201.131.622.174.8310.4040.16
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) 11.151.895.568.2416.81-0.515.775.055.495.466.78
US Inflation (%)1.740.190.290.992.594.814.172.842.572.522.79
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

Current1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)0.00-6.34-23.20-23.20-23.20-44.08-44.08-44.08
Start to Recovery (# months) 3262626424242
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092022 012022 012022 012007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)2999161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)1171717262626
End (yyyy mm)2023 112024 022024 022024 022011 042011 042011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same

same
-32.45-32.45
Start to Recovery (# months) 5656
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092022 012022 012022 012007 112000 042000 04
Start to Bottom (# months)2999163030
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)1171717262626
End (yyyy mm)2023 112024 022024 022024 022011 042004 112004 11
Longest negative period (# months) 227323257118118
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092021 092021 032021 032007 011999 051999 05
End (yyyy mm)2023 102023 112023 102023 102011 092009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-32.51-1.93-0.41-0.41-0.18-0.23-0.23
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-1.53-6.75-27.97-27.97-27.97-45.00-45.00-45.00
Start to Recovery (# months) 36*336*36*36*636363
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092021 092021 092021 092007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)2131313161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)1232323474747
End (yyyy mm)2023 11---2013 012013 012013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same

same
-36.11-36.11
Start to Recovery (# months) 7070
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092021 092021 092021 092007 112000 042000 04
Start to Bottom (# months)2131313163030
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)1232323474040
End (yyyy mm)2023 11---2013 012006 012006 01
Longest negative period (# months) 236*465868140140
Start (yyyy mm)2023 092021 092020 012017 122006 021997 071997 07
End (yyyy mm)2023 102024 082023 102022 092011 092009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-34.26-0.51-0.55-0.01-0.38-0.33-0.33
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)11.6614.5814.6712.3612.7612.4612.38
Sharpe Ratio1.240.070.550.530.530.470.53
Sortino Ratio1.690.090.720.710.690.610.70
Ulcer Index2.2710.028.316.419.8910.709.61
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation1.700.290.690.650.640.650.79
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown3.130.180.440.350.190.180.22
Positive Months (%) 75.0058.3365.0066.6664.5863.6165.54
Positive Months9213980155229312
Negative Months315214085131164

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized8.0312.2812.2814.19
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.120.520.52
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.0510.3410.3410.71
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized3.30-2.02-2.02

TIMEFRAMES

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
··· As of Aug 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized48.6022.2818.5412.288.598.12
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-11.70-2.510.524.72
Positive Periods (%)77.984.697.6100.0100.0100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized45.4719.4216.1510.346.205.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-13.82-5.02-2.022.58
Positive Periods (%)72.777.583.395.8100.0100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative 5.208.0910.1817.0617.830.000.000.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)6.6910.6813.8425.4726.891.660.000.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative 7.6512.3316.1833.3534.366.210.000.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)9.2115.0420.0036.2337.2511.730.000.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)76.0225.8416.018.815.416.92
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)------------2.165.51
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1985 - Aug 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized49.1125.0022.5814.1911.8010.18
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-11.70-2.510.524.727.36
Positive Periods (%)81.288.698.3100.0100.0100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized46.8021.3118.2510.718.527.26
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.94-13.82-5.02-2.022.584.72
Positive Periods (%)74.882.988.097.1100.0100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative 5.047.659.3413.5714.800.000.000.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)6.5210.2212.9722.6123.940.000.000.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative 7.4711.8715.3032.8732.315.230.000.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)9.0214.5519.1034.7536.289.870.000.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)76.0225.8416.018.815.415.99
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)------------2.164.65
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (6)

The first official book of Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (7)

Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 August 2024

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Terms and Definitions

Correlation values range between -1 and +1

  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 August 2024 (~40 years)

Inflation Adjusted:


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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 August 2024 (~40 years)

Inflation Adjusted:


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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from January 1985 to August 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BOGLEHEADS FOUR FUNDS PORTFOLIO

Monthly Returns Distribution

Time Period: 1 September 1994 - 31 August 2024 (30 Years)

Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 31 August 2024 (~40 years)

229 Positive Months (64%) - 131 Negative Months (36%)

312 Positive Months (66%) - 164 Negative Months (34%)


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Methodology

Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

  • Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU), up to December 2007
  • iShares TIPS Bond (TIP), up to December 2003
  • Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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...

Bogleheads Four Funds Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)
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