Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (2024)

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Baffled by Bitcoin? How Cryptocurrency Works

From Bitcoin to Litecoin to Ethereum, we explain how cryptocurrency transactions work.

There’s Bitcoin. There’s Litecoin. There’s Ethereum. So just what is cryptocurrency, and how does it work? Essentially, it’s digital money that’s bought and sold online. There’s no bills or coins. It’s not based on another asset like gold. And it doesn’t go through traditional financial institutions like banks. Instead, these currencies operate in a completely decentralized system that uses so-called blockchain technology to track transactions. To see how this works, let’s look at how you’d buy something with cryptocurrency. Say that Alice wants to buy a bike from Dan using Bitcoin, her cryptocurrency of choice. Alice begins by logging into her Bitcoin wallet with a private key, a unique combination of letters and numbers. With a traditional financial transaction, the exchanges get sent to banks on each side who record the money being subtracted from one account and added to another. But remember, in this scenario, there are no banks or middlemen. Instead, Alice’s transaction is shared with everyone in the Bitcoin network. These networked computers add Alice’s transaction to a shared list of recent transactions, known as a block. Every 10 minutes, the newest block of transactions is added on, or chained, to all the previous blocks. That’s how you get a blockchain. To ensure that each block of transactions on the chain is verified, a subset of Bitcoin’s network joins a race to solve a difficult math puzzle. And if they solve it first, their record of the block of transactions becomes the official record. They’re rewarded with Bitcoins of their own, and the network gets a new block on the chain. This entire process is known as mining. But instead of chipping away at rock, you’re solving complex puzzles. The fact that many computers are competing to verify a block ensures that no single computer can monopolize the Bitcoin market. To ensure the competition stays fair and evenly timed, the puzzle becomes harder when more computers join in. The Bitcoin protocol says mining will continue until there are 21 million Bitcoins in existence. That’s set to happen around 2140 — if Bitcoin lasts that long.

Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (1)

By Nathaniel Popper

SAN FRANCISCO — A concentrated campaign of price manipulation may have accounted for at least half of the increase in the price of Bitcoin and other big cryptocurrencies last year, according to a paper released on Wednesday by an academic with a history of spotting fraud in financial markets.

The paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, and Amin Shams, a graduate student, is likely to stoke a debate about how much of Bitcoin’s skyrocketing gain last year was caused by the covert actions of a few big players, rather than real demand from investors.

Many industry players expressed concern at the time that the prices were being pushed up at least partly by activity at Bitfinex, one of the largest and least regulated exchanges in the industry. The exchange, which is registered in the Caribbean with offices in Asia, was subpoenaed by American regulators shortly after articles about the concerns appeared in The New York Times and other publications.

Mr. Griffin looked at the flow of digital tokens going in and out of Bitfinex and identified several distinct patterns that suggest that someone or some people at the exchange successfully worked to push up prices when they sagged at other exchanges. To do that, the person or people used a secondary virtual currency, known as Tether, which was created and sold by the owners of Bitfinex, to buy up those other cryptocurrencies.

“There were obviously tremendous price increases last year, and this paper indicates that manipulation played a large part in those price increases,” Mr. Griffin said.

[Steve Bannon has a “good stake” in Bitcoin and floated the idea of creating a “deplorables coin.”]

Bitfinex executives have denied in the past that the exchange was involved in any manipulation. The company said on Wednesday that it had never engaged in “any sort” of market or price manipulation. “Tether issuances cannot be used to prop up the price of Bitcoin or any other coin/token on Bitfinex,” Jan Ludovicus van der Velde, Bitfinex’s chief executive, said in a statement.

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Bitcoin’s Price Was Artificially Inflated, Fueling Skyrocketing Value, Researchers Say (Published 2018) (2024)

FAQs

What caused Bitcoin to skyrocket? ›

Specifically, bitcoin has moved like a speculative asset: a high-risk class of investments that draw interest for their potential to greatly increase, as opposed to their underlying utility. When interest rates shrank during the pandemic, allowing people to borrow and invest money more easily, bitcoin boomed.

Why is Bitcoin so inflated? ›

Because it is in demand by investors (realistically, they are speculators because they are hoping for returns), Bitcoin commands a very high price, as demonstrated by the exchange rates it has experienced in the past.

Which event led to Bitcoin's 2017 surge? ›

This surge in bitcoin may be related to the 2017 Zimbabwean coup d'état. On one bitcoin exchange, 1 BTC topped at nearly $13,500, just shy of 2 times the value of the International market. Price reached $17,900.

Did crypto cause inflation? ›

The "wealth effect" from unrealized crypto-market gains could inject demand-pull inflation into the economy. That could force the Fed to reassess its December projection of implementing three interest-rate cuts in 2024.

Why sudden rise in Bitcoin? ›

BTC price bounces from moving average support

Daily price chart technicals show BTC's price jumped after testing its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) as support. This wave support has capped BTC's downside attempts multiple times in recent history.

Why is Bitcoin a bad investment? ›

Bitcoin is a risky investment with high volatility, and generally should be considered only if you have a high risk tolerance, are in a strong financial position already and can afford to lose some or all of your investment.

What was the price of Bitcoin in 2018? ›

It spent much of the year bouncing between $6,000 and $8,000 before closing 2018 at $3,709 – down 73 percent for the year. The year 2019 kicked off with more of the same, as Bitcoin looked for direction. It tried to burst through $4,000 for the first few months, but finally hit it in April and then rose to $5,000.

Why is bitcoin expensive again? ›

The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices, coupled with positive developments such as the approval of Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by regulatory authorities, has fueled expectations for further gains. Additionally, anticipation is building around the upcoming Bitcoin Halving event scheduled for April 2024.

Is it smart to invest in bitcoin? ›

There are several risks associated with investing in cryptocurrency: loss of capital, government regulations, fraud and hacks. Loss of capital. Mark Hastings, partner at Quillon Law, warns that investors must tread carefully in crypto's unique financial environment or risk significant losses.

Which is better, gold or Bitcoin? ›

Since the 1970s, gold hasn't kept pace with inflation. Although Bitcoin and gold have similarities, Bitcoin's decentralization, security, and true finite supply make it the superior asset.

Is inflation good or bad for Bitcoin? ›

Why is inflation important for crypto? A high inflation rate for fiat currencies might lead individuals to invest more in digital money because the dollars or Euros they placed in a savings account are actually losing value over time.

What is the wealth effect of Bitcoin? ›

Quantifying Crypto's Wealth Effect

They analyzed what that would look like spread out over the decade through 2023, and found that every dollar gained in households' crypto wealth pushed median home price up by 15 cents over the following three months.

What will $100 of Bitcoin be worth in 2030? ›

If this pattern continues into 2030, the price could peak around 2029 or 2030, potentially aligning with Wood's price prediction. If Wood is correct and Bitcoin reaches $3.8 million, a $100 investment in Bitcoin today would be worth $5,510 in 2030. This translates to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 95%.

Which coin will reach $1 in 2024? ›

In the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency, these ten coins, including TRON, Shiba Inu, Astar, Kaspa, Dogecoin, Stellar, Kava, Polygon, Cronos, and VeChain, present diverse potentials for reaching the $1 milestone in 2024. Investors keen on penny cryptos have a spectrum of options to explore.

Can Bitcoin go to zero? ›

Over the span of many decades, anything can go to zero. Amazon and Google can go to zero. But sooner than that, the chance of Bitcoin going to zero … is zero.

How rare is it to own one Bitcoin? ›

How Many People Own 1 Bitcoin? How Many People Own 1 Bitcoin? Summary: As of 2024, there are about 420 million cryptocurrency users globally. Of these, approximately 1.5 million individuals possess more than 1 Bitcoin, which is just 0.36% of all cryptocurrency users.

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