The latest Bitcoin halving — a technical event that cuts the reward for mining new Bitcoin by half — occurredon April 19-20, which divided the reward from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125. Bitcoin’s halving, a feature to ensure the cryptocurrency’s scarcity and safeguard it from inflation, happens every four years.
Right now, Bitcoin’s value is hovering around $65,000 — and it’s primarily in the green because inflation has eased and the stock market is bullish. Bitcoin didn’t jump significantly after the halving process and currently hovers roughly 12% below its record high of $73,803 set in March; it’s still up about 140% in the past year. But historically, Bitcoin has jumped after the halving event.
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The first Bitcoin halving happened in November 2012, when the reward for mining a block was reduced from 50 Bitcoin to 25. At that time, Bitcoin’s price was $12. It went up to $44 in 100 days and then $135 in 300 days. The second halving event occurred in July 2016, when the reward was reduced from 25 Bitcoin to 12.5. The flagship cryptocurrency went from $658 to $1,551 in 300 days. At the third halving in May 2020, the Bitcoin incentive was reduced by half to 6.25 Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin was at $8,601, moving upward to $50,941 within 300 days.
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Steven Lubka, a managing director at Bitcoin financial services company Swan Bitcoin, seems optimistic about the growth of the top cryptocurrency. In an email, he wrote that Bitcoin’s performance has a massive run-up ahead of the halving, which historically has not happened. “Bitcoin has never really seen a sharp rise post-halving; it generally occurs on a month-by-month basis as time progresses,” he said.
Rennick Palley, founding partner at the crypto venture capital firm Stratos, adds that in the next 12 months following the halving, Bitcoin will probably continue its upward price movement.
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So why is this year’s halving different from its predecessors? It’s primarily because Bitcoin reached its peak a month prior, making it difficult to maintain the same momentum. Plus, experts add, the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed the factors that affect the price movement of the top cryptocurrency.
According to Palley, the price of Bitcoin is now largely determined by global liquidity dynamics and adoption. “As fiat money continues to be printed and as more people around the world recognize the value of Bitcoin as a store of value, the price of Bitcoin in dollar terms will continue to rise,” he said.
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Many will continue to be surprised by Bitcoin’s changes in dynamics, but the analysts say they won’t be surprised if the flagship cryptocurrency crosses the $100,000 mark this year. “It’s always difficult to forecast an exact timeframe, but I expect six-figure Bitcoin on the horizon,” Lubka said.
After the halving came and went, some investors who had been waiting on the sidelines might have cashed out, leading to a price correction. The price surge caused by the ETF approval along with anticipation for the halving itself could be a key reason why Bitcoin hasn't experienced the dramatic moonshot many expected.
"Historically, market cycles peak 12 to 18 months after a Bitcoin Halving, which last took place in April of this year. We also haven't seen volatility reach prior peak highs.
Thakral believes that Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024 is more feasible now than ever before due to several key factors. The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF has spurred significant interest from institutional investors, fundamentally transforming the crypto investment landscape in favor of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's price is stuck because the market has reached a point of equilibrium regarding investor profitability, according to Glassnode. For the uninitiated, the Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio metric is useful for assessing investors' average unrealized profits.
After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies. With a liquid, regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices without selling their coins.
Unfortunately, it's also incredibly volatile. For that reason, while current market conditions are favorable for anyone considering buying Bitcoin, it is an asset you should purchase only at your own risk. Because while Bitcoin may have the potential for significant returns, you may also lose most of your investment.
Forecasts call for a 91% rise in six months, so early in March or April of 2025 Bitcoin might get to $100,000. This, according to Santana, is not an overnight jump but rather an upward trend due to improving market conditions and institutional interest.
"The halving shouldn't change anything there. It's literally written in the code... it's just going to continue. It's not this special thing or magical event that makes bitcoin any more or less compelling to invest. If you loved it two or three years ago, you should think about loving it now and continuing to learn.
If Wood is correct and Bitcoin does reach $3.8 million by 2030, an investment of $1,000 would be worth over $60,000. This would result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100%.
Ark's research suggests the cryptocurrency could soar 2,115% to almost $1.5 million by 2030 -- but Wood herself came out with an even more bullish estimate recently, saying Bitcoin could rocket 5,453% to $3.8 million.
“Based on the current market trend, it is possible that bitcoin may reach up to $100,000 by the end of 2024 and could potentially surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025,” Collins said.
A reasonable assumption that Bitcoin could hypothetically reach the null state of it's value is worth the thought. Even-though such an event is very less likely to take place, there are some factors that could theoretically lead to Bitcoin price crashing to zero.
So, who are the top holders of BTC? According to the Bitcoin research and analysis firm River Intelligence, Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator behind Bitcoin, is listed as the top BTC holder as of 2024. The company notes that Satoshi Nakamoto holds about 1.1m BTC tokens in about 22,000 different addresses.
Products, services, wages, and salaries are not valued in bitcoin but in fiat currency. Bitcoin must be converted to a government-backed currency to be used, even in countries where it is recognized as legal tender. The argument here is that because Bitcoin is convertible, it doesn't have any underlying value.
The Bitcoin halving refers to an event that takes place about every four years and reduces the block reward by 50%. This lowers the supply of bitcoins entering the market, which increases scarcity and can act to raise its price if market conditions remain the same.
Our most recent Bitcoin price forecast indicates that its value will increase by 16.91% and reach $65,152 by September 13, 2024. Our technical indicators signal about the Bearish Bullish 28% market sentiment on Bitcoin, while the Fear & Greed Index is displaying a score of 37 (Fear).
The monetary policy of Bitcoin allows for a total of 32 halvings of which three took place since its inception. So, there are 29 halvings left which amounts to roughly 116 years.
Introduction: My name is Edwin Metz, I am a fair, energetic, helpful, brave, outstanding, nice, helpful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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