The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with acorresponding open-ended index(like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite).To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating,read here.
With a quarter-of-a-point decrease this month, the Hagerty Market Rating has dropped below 65 for the first time in three years. The current Market Rating of 64.76 is the lowest value since May 2021, and 7 points down from this time last year.
While the Market Rating continues to slide, the Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock market-style index of the Market Rating, saw its first increase in 18 months. While this increase was only 0.1 points, it broke the longest losing streak in that Index’s history.
Optimism among our industry experts remained at an even 50 again this month, reflecting the lack of surprises they are seeing in the marketplace. But one trend continues: overall, real auction prices are falling.
The Median Sale Price at Auction metric decreased another 3 points this month to 32.97—setting a new record for its lowest value in the history of the Market Rating. Falling significantly from its high point of $34,560 in late 2022, the current real Median Auction Price is now $28,875, the lowest since the fall of 2020. However, when accounting for inflation, the current value is the lowest ever. The Overall Auction Activity metric, which is a combination of Median Sale Price and Number of Cars Sold, has been dragged down to its lowest point in three years, solely due to the Median Auction Price’s poor performance.
Cars trading hands privately are doing a little better. The Average Sale Price increased slightly to $24,322—the highest value in 28 months. This helps stave off the influence of inflation, but it should also be noted that May was the first month with effectively zero inflation since July of 2022. And while the percentage of these cars selling for prices above their insured value decreased for the 17th consecutive time this month, it still sits at 42.3 percent. That is higher than any point before 2022.
Despite what appears to be a softening market, Hagerty is getting more and more calls from members to increase the insured values on their vehicles. The ratio of insured value increases-to-decreases for vehicles valued under $250,000 has risen 5 months in a row to 8.5-to-1. This reverses a 14-month decline and could be a sign that owners are thinking the most recent drop in values has hit their floor. For high-end vehicles (above $250K), meanwhile, the ratio has dropped for 19 of the last 20 months from 6.1-to-1 to 2.4-to-1.
Next month, we will take a look at how the softening market has effected values in the Hagerty Price Guide, after a new quarterly update goes live at the start of July.
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